Props sure sign that it’s baseball season

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The first sign that baseball is around the corner for me isn’t when pitchers and catchers report to camp. Nor is it the smell of fresh-cut grass or simply looking at a calendar.

No, my first sign is when I get 10 pages of baseball propositions from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and then my baseball wheels start spinning inside of my head.

Yes, baseball season is upon us.

Click here to see MLB Props from Superbook at Westgate

Click here to see College World Series odds from Caesars Entertainment

What the props also do is entertain my curiosity and have me immediately researching which ones that may be off. You can’t post over 200 different props and be 100 percent correct on all of them.

But the SuperBook crew is daring all of us to do so. Those guys roll with an arrogant confidence, a swagger, just waiting for bettors to bet against their thoughts. I love it!

And that’s what these props are. They’re homemade from scratch. No paid service. No cut and paste from another property. They’re genuine. They’re quintessential SuperBook brainpower.

It’s Oddsmaking 101 at it’s best. They’re putting their neck out there with a professional approach saying, “Come and get it. The windows are open.”

What’s a shame, though, is that as soon as other sportsbooks post some MLB props, bettors will instantly get smarter when having another number to look at.

SuperBook manager Ed Salmons said they didn’t get much play, other than season win totals, after initially opening.

Usually, when anything opens, there’s always someone who has an opinion. When these player props went up, people who call themselves sharp were looking at the props like they were written in Cantonese because there were no other numbers to go off of.

It was an early feeding frenzy at the SuperBook on their season win totals just because Caesars Palace posted theirs last month. I’m sure Caesars saw some immediate action on differences the other way on Sunday as well.

People aren’t so smart when there’s nothing to compare it to. That includes myself, which is why I had to jump in deep to all the numbers with hopes of finding some gems that I think might be off a bit.

I went to work immediately and spent all Sunday researching several of their props. The thing is, though, that Jay Kornegay’s SuperBook crew is so sharp that finding nuggets is tough. They’ve got over-under numbers on all the major players, and also some not so major.

How about wins by Matt Harvey, now on the Angels, at 7.5? Or the Padres Joey Lucchesi set at 8.5 wins?

Salmons said they did twice as many players props as last season, which makes it the biggest wagering menu of MLB props they’ve ever posted, which in turn makes it the most MLB props ever posted in Nevada.

I love the betting landscape around the country in 2019 and the SuperBook is flexing its muscles as a leader.

Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton was posted at 40.5 home runs and is still listed as the 7-to-1 favorites (posted in November) to win the MLB home run crown.

Las Vegan Bryce Harper is 25-to-1 to win the home run title and his 2019 total was set Sunday at 34.5 at the SuperBook doesn’t even know what park he’ll be playing because of being unsigned. Salmons thinks he’ll be in a Phillies uniform this season. Harper is one of the highest rated players in baseball worth 10 cents to the daily line.

Manny Machado is also set at 34.5 homers. The Padres signed Machado Tuesday and Machado is worth eight cents to the number in daily baseball lines. He has already made an impact as the Padres’ season win total has moved to 78.5 from 76.5 while San Diego’s odds of winning the World Series dropped to 50-1 from 80-1.

The SuperBook also posted odds on whether or not a specific team would make the playoffs. You can get +475 that the Red Sox don’t make the playoffs or lay -600 that the defending champions do.

Those White Sox, with the possibility of getting Machado, are +800 to make the playoffs (No -1400) and the Phillies with the possibility of getting Harper are +170 to make the playoffs (No is -200).

There is just so much to absorb with all these props. But the best thing about them other than potentially finding a winner is that baseball is here. We can watch spring training in two weeks and get an idea of what starters are fired up for 2019.

Last season, Seattle’s Marco Gonzalez had an amazing spring and it translated to plus-money wins in the regular season. His win total is set at 9.5.

Man, these SuperBook dudes went deep.

CWS future odds

Caesars Palace opened odds to win the College Baseball World Series last week, the earliest I’ve ever seen odds for the double-elimination tournament posted.

The tournament begins June 16 and ends on June 26 in Omaha, Nebraska. The norm in Las Vegas has been to post odds when the final eight teams are announced.

Caesars went a step further and posted 67 teams and a field bet (20/1) in mid-February. It’s brilliant and part of the reason why Las Vegas will keep its edge in the growing industry.

LSU opened as the 10-to-1 favorite, followed by North Carolina (12/1), Oregon State (12/1) and Flordia (12/1).

Early reports from Caesars Matt Lindeman show the favorites being bet most often with a larger wager on Illinois at 200-to-1 (likely a homer bet). 

So while the college baseball season has just gotten underway, Caesars found a way to maximize their offerings and create some action.

By the way, my UNLV Hustlin’ Rebels crew are 500-to-1.

Lakers playoffs?

The Los Angeles Lakers are currently 28-29 and sitting in the 10th slot, two out of the NBA playoff picture and three games behind the eighth-seeded Clippers.

LeBron James missed 17 games and the Lakers slid down the standings. Since he’s been back, the Lakers have gone just 3-4.

The Westgate SuperBook figured some bettors would have an opinion on whether or not they make the playoffs considering the Lakers are basically a Vegas home team as far as rooting interest.

SuperBook oddsmaker Jeff Sherman opened “No” to make the playoffs as a pick ‘em, -110 each way. Sharps bettors jumped on the No at -110 and also -125 which now has the Lakers not to make the playoffs at -140.

The value seems to have flipped. But never count LeBron out. 

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