PSG vs AC Milan Odds, Betting Tips, Predictions: Pivotal Match in UEFA Champions League Group F

In the deepest Champions League group of the eight, Group F, all four teams have at least one point after two matchdays. That makes Wednesday’s match between Ligue 1 club Paris St. Germain (currently in second in the group with three points) and AC Milan (third place, two points) pivotal.

 

Milan have earned two valuable points with draws against Newcastle and Borussia Dortmund, both via 0-0 results. PSG got off to a strong start by beating Borussia Dortmund 2-0 on Matchday 1, but were blown out by Newcastle in their second Champions League match on October 4. Wednesday’s match, which will kick off at 3 p.m. Eastern, is the first of two matches between these teams in the next few weeks. They meet again in Milan on Nov. 7.

Best PSG vs. AC Milan Betting Odds Available

At Caesars, PSG are -127 to win on the three-way moneyline, compared to AC Milan at +330. Caesars lists the draw at +270, and it has the total at set 2.5, Over (-130), Under (+100).

 

PSG vs. AC Milan Betting Tips

Since giving up five goals in a blowout loss to crosstown rival Inter on Sept. 16, Milan have gone undefeated, with four wins and two draws in their last six matches (four in Serie A, two in the Champions League). Milan’s back line has been outstanding during this stretch, with just one goal allowed. That makes it hard to recommend taking Yes on the Will Both Teams Score prop, even after PSG gave up four goals to Newcastle in their last UCL match.

 

Two other markets worth checking out are “first team to score” and First Half Over/Under, which is set at .

Given Milan’s recent form and confidence, they’re good value to score first in this match.

 

PSG vs. AC Milan Player Props

Goalscorer Props

Stateside, all eyes tuning in on CBS/Paramount+ will be glued to Christian Pulisic (Anytime goalscorer: +510, BetRivers). The American is in his best form in years after his time in London with Chelsea did not live up to expectations — either Pulisic’s or the club’s.

After starting his club season for Milan with four goals and an assist in the team’s first eight matches, Pulisic bagged a goal apiece for the USMNT in its recent friendlies against Germany and Ghana. His individual effort on the goal against Germany was the latest reminder of the impact Pulisic can have against even the best players in the world.

At the risk of stating the obvious, Kylian Mbappe (Score first goal: +250, BetRivers) is always dangerous for PSG, so much so that his anytime goalscorer price often offers little value.

PSG vs. AC Milan Analysis and Prediction

In previous years, PSG were always a safe bet to not just win their group stage matches, but do so with ease. Messi and Mbappe are gone now, though, leaving Mbappe as the lone truly world-class threat up top for the Parisians. In Ligue 1, wing-back Achraf Hakimi (three goals, two assists) and promising young forwards Goncalo Ramos, 22, and Randal Kolo Muani, 24, have been solid. But so far this season, PSG is not nearly the offensive force it was in recent years, which is a big reason it’s won just four of its first eight in Ligue 1.

Milan are in first place in Serie A with an impressive 21 points through eight matches, though their blowout loss to Inter raised questions about whether they can actually win the league. On the other hand, drawing both Dortmund and Newcastle — while keeping clean sheets in both matches — showed that Pulisic and Co. are absolutely capable of reaching the knockout stages despite being drawn in a brutal group F.

Milan are a solid value play at +160 or more on the three-way moneyline. An even safer bet worth considering — given how rarely PSG drop points at home in UCL group play — is Double Chance — Tie or AC Milan (+105) at DraftKings.

About the Author
Tyler Everett

Tyler Everett

Writer
Tyler Everett has been a sports writer since joining the student newspaper at his alma mater, NC State, back in 2008. He has covered sports, sports betting, and the business of sports for several newspapers and websites, including the Denver Broncos, Charlotte Observer, High Press Soccer, and Sports Business Journal.

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