After opening as 6.5-point road favorites against the Dolphins in the NFL Week 10 Thursday night game, the Ravens have been bet up to -7.5 on most oddsboards.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible with a 60% chance of rain at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Ravens (6-2, 3-5 ATS) At Dolphins (2-7, 3-5-1 ATS)
Betting line (BetMGM): Ravens -7.5 (-105), 47
The skinny: The AFC North-leading Ravens face a Dolphins team likely without starting QB Tua Tagovailoa (finger) for the second straight week.
Facts: Tagovailoa (questionable) was limited in Tuesday’s drills and could well yield to veteran backup Jacoby Brissett, who guided the Dolphins to a 17-9 home win over Houston last week despite Miami’s five turnovers. The win snapped a seven-game losing streak, but the Dolphins averaged a season-low 1.9 yards on 25 rushes against a Texans team that entered giving up 4.8 a carry, second-worst in the league.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson was a rushing workhorse last Sunday in a 34-31 home overtime win over Minnesota, carrying 21 times for 120 yards, his most rushes since 26 in his first career start. By comparison, career QB rushing leader Michael Vick never exceeded 15 carries in a game. The Ravens ran 37 more plays than the Vikings, the biggest margin in a game this season.
Besides the likelihood of playing without its No. 1 QB, Miami will be without injured starting center Greg Mancz (traded by Baltimore to Miami in August). He’ll likely be replaced by Austin Reiter, who started for K.C. in the Super Bowl last year.
In the season opener between these squads in 2019, the Ravens won in Miami 59-10 as a 7-point favorite, flying past the over of the total of 41 themselves in the first half in the league’s most lopsided victory of the past seven seasons. In Brian Flores’ debut as Miami coach, Jackson had the first of two career perfect passer ratings, which included five TD throws.
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Analysis: On the surface, the line seems pretty low considering the Dolphins were 15-point dogs at Buffalo two weeks ago, getting a push in a 26-11 loss. And it’s not like playing in Miami is a house of horrors for visiting teams, which are 3-1 SU/ATS there this season. Miami’s 30th-ranked defense (it is also 30th on offense) will have its stiffest task of the season when going against the league’s second-rated offense, which isn’t all about just Jackson. The running back corps, which has been devastated by injuries this season, got a combined 127 yards on 24 carries by Le’Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman last week, an average of 5.3 per run. If the Dolphins continue having turnover issues, they won’t come close to winning this week.
Ravens at Dolphins Pick
Ravens 34, Dolphins 13
Last week: 5-9 ATS, 8-6 SU
Season total: 67-66-3 (.504) ATS; 85-51 (.625) SU
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