Barcelona beat Real Madrid 3-1 the last time the teams met in the Spanish Supercopa Final in January, and the first-place Catalans are seven points ahead of their rivals in La Liga (Barcelona have 59 points through 23 games, compared to 52 for Real Madrid). In our breakdown of Real Madrid vs. Barcelona odds, props, and pick, we’ll explain why Real Madrid are nevertheless the clear favorites at home against a Barcelona side that has been outstanding in domestic play this season.
Barcelona Manager Xavi’s team travels to the Santiago Bernabeu for Thursday’s Cop del Rey Semifinal, Leg 1 Clasico as a heavy underdog due to the absence of two of the team’s most important players, striker Robert Lewandowski and midfielder Pedri.
The great news for fans of Spanish soccer is that Thursday’s Clásico is one of three taking place in the next 35 days. Barca and Real Madrid will meet twice at Camp Nou over the next month on March 19 in La Liga and on April 5 in leg 2 of the Copa semifinals.
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona Odds: Moneyline & Total
Here are the betting lines from top US sportsbooks for Thursday’s Copa del Rey showdown between Real Madrid and Barcelona. The odds are likely to change between now and kickoff, and it’s always advised to weigh the options at various sports betting apps to find the best sportsbook bonuses and prices.
These odds reflect the prices for both sides on the three-way line, where a bet on either team is a loss in the event of a draw. DraftKings lists the draw at +265, while FanDuel offers +240 and Caesars offers +250.
SOCCER · Thu (3/2) @ 3:00 pm ET
|Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid, ES|
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Real Madrid Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
Real Madrid brought back all their key pieces from last year’s team that won La Liga and the Champions League. For years now, plenty have wondered if and when the likes of Karim Benzema, Luka Modric, and Toni Kroos might fall off — all three are at least 33 years old — but they continue to defy their age.
Real Madrid also boast one of the best keepers in the world in Thibaut Courtois. With speedy Brazilian winger Vinicius now a star on the left, plus ascending midfielders Eduardo Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni, and Fede Valverde all coming into their own, Real Madrid are as complete as any team in Europe.
Los Blancos are playing well in the Champions League again this year (surprise, surprise), where they’re well on their way to the quarterfinals after a dominant leg 1 performance against Liverpool at Anfield.
In La Liga, Carlo Ancelotti’s team have a strong record of 16-4-3, but they’re looking up at Barcelona in the table because Xavi’s side have been an almost perfect 19-2-2.
Real Madrid don’t have many major concerns, though they have felt the recent absences of left back Ferland Mendy and fellow defender David Alaba. But with Nacho filling in for Mendy and Antonio Rudiger stepping up in place of Alaba, the Real Madrid back line of Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, Rudiger, and Nacho has held down the fort.
Barcelona Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
A look at the table would tell you that Barcelona should be a clear favorite against anyone in Spain, but they’ve endured a brutal recent stretch of injuries. First, key midfielder Pedri went down during the first leg of the team’s Europa League matchup with Manchester United on Feb. 16. His team has lost two of three since, including a poor showing over the weekend against Almeria.
But unfortunately for Xavi, the injury concerns aren’t limited to Pedri, as the team is also without Lewandowski, its best and most consistent offensive threat. Barcelona will also not have winger Ousmane Dembele due to a thigh injury. If they’re forced to play a front three of Ansu Fati, Ferran Torres, and Raphinha, they won’t lack for talent, but those three have combined to score just nine goals in La Liga this year — and Fati is dealing with a knee issue (though he is still expected to be available).
It all adds up to Xavi, for one, having no issue with bookmakers viewing Real Madrid as the favorites.
The midfield dominance has been the story of the season for Barcelona, but they’re not nearly the same without Pedri. With Gavi, Sergio Busquets, and Frenkie de Jong available, Barca won’t be completely overmatched against Real Madrid, but it’s hard to overstate how much they miss Pedri.
Xavi can’t be blamed for viewing Real Madrid as the favorites. In addition to Lewandowski, Dembele, and Pedri, he is also likely going to have to replace Andreas Christensen with Marcos Alonso or Eric Garcia.
It will be interesting to see how a Barcelona back line that will still have Ronald Araujo (who has the massive task of trying to contain Vinicius), Jules Kounde, and Alejandro Balde fare against Vinicius, Benzema, and the high-powered Real Madrid attack. Given Barcelona have allowed just eight goals in 23 La Liga matches, they shouldn’t miss Christensen — or at least not as much as they’ll miss Lewandowski, Pedri, and Dembele.
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona Props
Below is a sampling of props for Real Madrid vs. Barcelona.
Anytime Goalscorer (FanDuel):
- Karim Benzema: +120
- Rodrygo: +175
- Alvaro Rodriguez: +180
- Ansu Fati: +320
- Ferran Torres: +340
Correct Score (FanDuel):
- Real Madrid 1-0: +700
- Real Madrid 2-0: +900
- Real Madrid 2-1: +750
- Barcelona 1-0: +1200
- Barcelona 2-0: +2200
- Barcelona 2-1: +1300
- 0-0: +1000
- 1-1: +600
Total Goal Props (DraftKings):
- Over 0.5 goals -3500, Under 0.5 goals: +1000
- Over 1.5 goals -380, Under 1.5 goals: +285
- Over 2.5 goals -115, Under 2.5 goals: -105
- Over 3.5 goals +220, Under 3.5 goals: -285
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona Broadcast Info: Where to Watch
- Date/Time: Thursday, March 2, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Santiago Bernabeu
Watch this match on ESPN+.
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona Prediction: Real Madrid 2, Barcelona 1
Given all the pieces Barcelona are missing, it makes sense that many fans and writers expect a one-sided match in Real Madrid’s favor. But Barcelona will make this interesting (assuming Fati is healthy), as they should be able to keep Real Madrid in check. A draw feels within Barcelona’s reach, but that’s probably the best-case scenario considering the lineup they’ll rely on in a tough environment at the Bernabeu.
Don’t be surprised if Barcelona muck this up and have some success keeping it a low-scoring affair, hence the Both Teams To Score – No recommendation. And at the risk of contradicting myself after predicting a close match, it’s worth a small bet to bank on Real Madrid pulling away late.
Here are a few bets available at DraftKings that are worth checking out:
- Both Teams To Score – No (+110)
- Real Madrid to Win by 2 Goals (+400)
Also read: Premier League futures | 2026 World Cup odds
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