Real Madrid can ease some of the disappointment from being out of contention for this year’s La Liga title when they meet Osasuna on Saturday with a chance to win the Copa del Rey.
In Gaming Today’s breakdown of Real Madrid vs. Osasuna odds, props, and prediction, let’s look at whether massive betting long shot Osasuna can stun Real Madrid in the former’s second Copa final in club history — and first since 2005.
Betting Odds for Saturday’s Real Madrid vs. Osasuna Match
Here are Real Madrid vs. Osasuna Copa del Rey final betting lines available on top sports betting apps.
The odds below are on the three-way moneyline.
Betters also have the option to back either Real Madrid or Osasuna to raise the trophy — whether the match ends at full time, in extra time, or goes to PKs. Real Madrid are -750 on DraftKings, -700 on FanDuel, and -800 on Caesars to lift the Copa. Osasuna are +310 on DraftKings, +520 on FanDuel, and +450 on Caesars.
SOCCER · Sat (5/6) @ 4:00 pm ET
|Estadio La Cartuja, Sevilla, ES|
Real Madrid Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
Real Madrid’s Champions League run this season has overshadowed a disappointing campaign in La Liga, at least since the World Cup.
Los Blancos and Barcelona both started the season strong prior to the break for the Qatar World Cup. But while Barcelona (26-4-3, 82 points) are now in a position to finish with more than 90 points in La Liga, Real Madrid (21-5-7, 68 points) are as close to fifth-place Villarreal (54 points) as they are to Barca, with five games remaining.
Real Madrid has struggled since league play resumed following the World Cup — their record in post-WC La Liga matches is 10-3-6 — but that’s been overshadowed by the Champions League wins over Liverpool in the Round of 16 and Chelsea in the quarterfinals. It also helped that they reached the Copa finals with wins over Atletico Madrid in the quarters and Barca in the semis.
Still, Real Madrid’s season could go down as an undeniable success with any luck over the next two weeks. Carlo Ancelotti’s team faces Osasuna for the Copa final on Saturday, then has two Champions League semifinal meetings with Manchester City on May 9 and May 17.
For now, though, let’s focus on Real Madrid’s chances vs. Osasuna. These teams met twice in La Liga this year. Their match on Oct. 2 at the Santiago Bernabeu ended in a 1-1 draw (Osasuna also got a point at the Bernabeu in the 2021-22 season). Real Madrid won the rematch 2-0 on Feb. 18 at Osasuna. Real Madrid’s record in their last four meetings with Osasuna (2-2-0) proves that they should not take Saturday’s opponent lightly.
Nevertheless, if Real Madrid are at their best, they’ll not only win but have the match wrapped up well before the full-time whistle.
Real Madrid appear to be at nearly full strength for Saturday’s match. Midfielder Luka Modric and defender David Alaba have missed time recently, but are expected to be in the line-up against Osasuna.
Left back Ferland Mendy remains out, but Real Madrid have been playing without him for months. Eduardo Camavinga played well in that role in Legs 1 and 2 of RM’s UCL quarterfinal match-ups vs. Chelsea. Nacho and David Alaba give Ancelotti additional options at the position.
Osasuna Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
Osasuna are a great example of a low-budget Spanish team being far greater than the sum of its parts. The most expensive player on Osasuna’s roster, according to Transfermarkt, is center back David Garcia (€20M). At that position alone, Real Madrid have three players — Alaba, Eder Militao and Antonio Rudiger — worth €40M or more.
But under Manager Jagoba Arrasate, who took over the club in 2018 when it was in Spain’s second division and led it to promotion to La Liga for the ’19-20 season, Osasuna have punched above their weight class every year. They’re currently in ninth place in La Liga, after finishing 11th or higher in ’20, ’21, and ’22.
This year’s team has struggled to score (29 goals in 33 La Liga games) but has been solid defensively (35 goals allowed in 33 games).
Their recipe for success in the Copa has been to keep it low-scoring and outlast their opponent. They beat Real Betis in the Round of 16 in penalty kicks and defeated Sevilla in the quarters in extra time. Osasuna also got the winner of the tie in Leg 2 of the semifinals against Athletic Club in extra time. In those four matches, they allowed four goals, including one over more than 180 minutes against Athletic Club. If they can drag Saturday’s final into extra time, they have to like their chances, especially with RM’s pivotal UCL match against City next week looming.
Knowing Osasuna want to cede possession and deny scoring opportunities, it will be interesting to see whether Real Madrid play more aggressively than usual to try and get an early lead that would force the underdogs to chase a goal.
Backup midfielder Darko Brasanac, who tore his ACL in April, is the only key player Osasuna are expected to be missing.
Real Madrid vs. Osasuna Props
Below is a sampling of props for Real Madrid vs. Osasuna.
Anytime Goalscorer (FanDuel):
- Karim Benzema: -130
- Rodrygo: +115
- Vinicius: +160
- Chimy Avila: +340
- Ante Budimir: +400
Correct Score (FanDuel):
- Real Madrid 1-0: +650
- Real Madrid 2-0: +600
- Real Madrid 2-1: +650
- Osasuna 1-0: +2600
- Osasuna 2-0: +4800
- Osasuna 2-1: +2500
- 0-0: +1600
- 1-1: +900
Total Goal Props (DraftKings):
- Over 0.5 goals -5000, Under 0.5 goals: +1200
- Over 1.5 goals -525, Under 1.5 goals: +370
- Over 2.5 goals -165 Under 2.5 goals: +130
- Over 3.5 goals +155, Under 3.5 goals: -195
Real Madrid vs. Osasuna Broadcast Info: Where to Watch
- Date/Time: Saturday, May 6, 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Estadio La Cartuja
Fans can watch this match on ESPN+.
Real Madrid vs. Osasuna Prediction: Real Madrid 2, Osasuna 1
As much as I love picking an upset, particularly in a Cup final, Real Madrid have too much talent to recommend a play on Osasuna. It’s worth noting, though, that heavy favorites in the Copa del Rey have proven vulnerable in recent years.
In three of the last four years, a team outside Spain’s big three has captured the trophy (Valencia beat Barcelona in the final in ’19, Real Sociedad won it in ’20, and Real Betis were last year’s champions).
That history, plus Osasuna’s track record of extra-time heroics in the Copa this year, mean that if the game goes to extra time, Osasuna will be worth a bet, regardless of the price on the live line.
Real Madrid getting an early lead and winning a low-scoring match feels like the most likely outcome, though.
Here are a few other bets available at DraftKings that are worth checking out:
- Osasuna +1.5 goals (-120)
- Double Chance – Tie or Osasuna (as of Full Time) (+225)
- Parlay: Real Madrid Win and Under 3.5: +100
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