To say the Golden Nugget’s release of 250 College Football Games of the Year spreads were a success last Friday would be the understatement of the year.
Within the first hour of posting, the Nugget handled more cash than they did the entire first day last season. There were 48 games bettors found a side to their liking that moved at least a full point.
When looking at all the movement, I was quite impressed by the job Golden Nugget staff led by Tony Miller and Aaron Kessler did with their numbers. Only one game moved 3 points and only one other moved 2½.
Check out the Golden Nugget opening lines here
That’s pretty amazing considering that the best college football handicapping minds were dialed at trying to find the worst lines available. They found some they liked, but no line was too off-base, which should make the Nugget guys feel proud about the job they did.
An Arizona State home game against Wisconsin moved from the opener at pick ’em to the Sun Devils -3. The other mover was Arkansas opening at pick’em and moved to a -2½-point favorite at Rutgers. There were several other games that moved 2 points, like UNLV’s opener at Minnesota, where the Gophers went from -13 to -15, but no big four or five point swings.
The bettors essentially tell you what line is off. On Friday, there weren’t that many off.
Now the hard part comes for the book: hoping they win. The Golden Nugget has shown a profit in five of the previous seven years offering the game of the year lines.
NBA Finals: The first two games of the NBA Finals went well for the Las Vegas sports books, but especially Game 1 that saw the Spurs pull off an upset as 5-point underdogs at Miami. The public was all over the Heat, and with the game staying UNDER the total. It was a double loss for the public.
In Game 2, the public got some of it back with the Heat blowing out the Spurs. However, when the game stayed UNDER by a half-point with a final score of 103-84, it saved the day for the books even though most showed a small loss.
“We would have definitely had a rough Sunday if that game went OVER,” said LVH Super Book vice-president Jay Kornegay. “The majority of the bets were on the Heat to bounce back, but the parlay liability to the Heat and OVER would have given the public back everything we won from Game 1.”
Game 3 is set for Tuesday night with the Spurs a 2-point favorite and the total set at 188. The LVH has adjusted the Heat to a -175 favorite to win the series, despite the Spurs having home court advantage now. Prior to Game 2, with the Spurs holding a one game lead, the Heat could have been had at +105.
The total at 188 is an interesting number to look at in Game 3, because it seems very low. In both games, these teams have had the look of wanting to go OVER. The flow has seemed fast, but yet both have gone UNDER.
The Heat have now gone UNDER the total in five straight games and the Spurs have stayed UNDER in three straight. Because of both teams faltering at pivotal moments between the two games, both have stayed UNDER and have kept this number low at 188. Expect a faster pace throughout in Game 3.
Taking a side in Game 3 seems tougher than the projecting the total just because the Heat have shown they like to make things interesting by taking a game or two off. They battled with the Pacers for their playoff lives and now are getting more than bargained for against the Spurs.
It seems the like the only time the Heat really come out to play with their guns fully loaded is when they come off a loss. They are now 5-0 straight-up and against-the-spread off a defeat in the playoffs.
The tough thing to ignore for most bettors is being able to get points with the Heat. The have been favored in every playoff game thus far. The last time Miami got points in a game not resting everyone was Feb. 14 at Oklahoma City (+5). The Heat won, 110-100.
Rock Vault at LVH: I’m not very big into the modern day Las Vegas shows with all the European clowns and acrobats, but I came across one I can fully endorse that was right up my alley.
It’s called “Raiding the Rock Vault” and it’s a fantastic production that takes us through the history of what we now call classic rock. The best thing about it is the songs are performed by real rock stars, not some broadway-type actors and singers.
Former band members of Yes, Asia, Survivor, Guns-n-Roses, Quiet Riot and others make you feel the heart and soul of all the epic songs we love from our past. Best of all, the price is right with tickets starting at only $49.
Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas race and sports book director, and longtime motorsports columnist and sports analyst at GamingToday. Follow Micah on Twitter @MicahRoberts7 Contact Micah at [email protected].