We have an excellent matchup for MLB on TBS action tonight as the red-hot Boston Red Sox will take on the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. This matchup features two of the hottest teams in baseball, which should make for an entertaining evening of baseball. To make things more exciting, we are here to break down the Red Sox vs. Braves predictions, odds, and prop bets.
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Red Sox vs. Braves Betting Odds: Run Line, Moneyline, Total
Before placing your Red Sox vs. Braves bets, check out the odds and lines from some of the top US sports betting apps. This will ensure that you get the best number for your wager and will open you up to each sportsbook’s bonus offers, which can help you build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
Here are the Red Sox vs. Braves odds from some of our favorite sports betting platforms.
MLB · Tue (5/9) @ 7:20pm ET
|BOS Red Sox||at||ATL Braves|
|Truist Park, Cumberland, Georgia|
Red Sox vs. Braves Betting Trends & Notes
Entering the season, Boston was projected to finish near the bottom of the AL East standings. While they currently sit in fourth place, the Red Sox are 21-15 and have won eight of the last nine games.
During this stretch, they have taken down some of the top teams in the game, such as the Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, and Cleveland Guardians. The pitching still has not been great for Boston, but the lineup is amongst the best in baseball as they rank third in runs (208), OBP (.341), and SLG (.452), fourth in wRC+ (114), and they have already hit 47 home runs on the season.
While the Red Sox arguably have one of their best starters on the mound today in Nick Pivetta, his continued decline is more apparent this season, as he enters this game with a 4.99 ERA and 5.47 FIP.
Meanwhile, Atlanta is seven games up on the New York Mets in the NL East, and they have the second-best record in baseball, but you can argue that they are the scariest team right now. Offensively, Atlanta ranks in the top 10 in HR (58), runs (188), RBI (179), BA (.260), OBP (.340), SLG (.464), wRC+ (117), and they are the No. 1 ranked team in hard-hit (44.9%) and barrel rate (12.2%).
The pitching has been equally impressive, as the bullpen carries a 3.60 ERA. Tonight’s starter, Charlie Morton, has had a solid start to his age-39-season, as he has a 3.38 ERA and an HR/9 of 0.78.
Boston Red Sox Betting Trends
- The total has gone OVER in five of Boston’s last seven games
- Boston is 8-1 SU in its last nine games
- The total has gone OVER in 13 of Boston’s last 19 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Boston’s last eight games in Atlanta
Atlanta Braves Betting Trends
- The total has gone OVER in four of Atlanta’s last five games
- The total has gone OVER in six of Atlanta’s last seven games against Boston
- The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta’s last 14 games at home
- Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last six games
Boston Red Sox: Nick Pivetta
2023 Stats: 6 G, 30.1 IP, 4.99 ERA 34 K, 0.0 fWAR
With each passing season, Pivetta is getting worse and worse. His numbers have been significantly better in Boston, but he still has a career 4.51 ERA with the Red Sox and is giving up an average of 100 earned runs per 162 games.
He started the year strong, with 10.0 IP and only one earned run in two starts. But since then, he has a 6.97 ERA and has given up five home runs in 20.2 IP. Tonight, he goes up against one of baseball’s best and most deep lineups. Luckily, he knows this team and this ballpark from his days with the Phillies, so hopefully, that gives him the right advantage to get back on track for a surging Red Sox team.
Atlanta Braves: Charlie Morton
2023 Stats: 6 G, 34.2 IP, 3.38 ERA 32 K, 0.4 fWAR
For the first time since 2019, Morton’s ERA sits below 4.00, but that may change as soon as tonight. With an xERA of 5.26 and an xFIP of 4.66, he is due for some regression, and this is one of the lineups that can kickstart that process.
While he has limited hard contact this season, Morton’s strikeout rate is the lowest it has been since his days with the Pirates about a decade ago, and he does not have a wide array of pitches, as he is a primary fastball and curveball starter. Those happen to be two pitches that Boston has thrived on this season, so Morton is going to need his best stuff tonight if he wants to go deep in this game.
Red Sox vs. Braves Prop Bet
Alex Verdugo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120, DraftKings)
Alex Verdugo is enjoying his best year as a pro so far this season. He enters tonight with career-highs in BB-rate (8.5%), ISO (.197), OBP (.379), SLG (.504), xwOBA (.366), and wRC+ (139). He has also been seeing the ball very well as of late, as he is slashing .333/.429/.700 with an OPS of 1.129 over his last eight games.
He has had five doubles and two home runs in that period and scored seven runs. Verdugo has been one of Boston’s best players this season and is a huge reason the Red Sox have had early success. While he has had some trouble with the fastball this season, he has always had success against the curveball, and with that being Morton’s finishing pitch, Verdugo can stay hot early.
Verdugo has cashed this prop in three of his last six, and with plus-value from our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook, this is well worth a play.
Red Sox vs. Braves Prediction
This is a battle of two elite offenses and two starting pitchers who are struggling. Both teams rank in the top 10 in runs scored, HRs, RBI, and EV, and although both teams have sharp bullpens, this game has all the making of a high-scoring affair, which means the over is the play here.
Atlanta has a park factor of 100, which is league average, but the wind is blowing out tonight, which should help the ball go further, but it is not like these lineups needed it. Both teams hit the ball hard and far, and both pitchers have given up hard contact this season.
The total sitting in the double-digits could be scary, but the trends heavily support it. Both offenses have been unstoppable, and the total has gone over in 68.6% of Boston’s games and 62% for Atlanta.
If you are feeling frisky, the Red Sox vs. Braves F5 line sits at 5.5, which is also a high number, but with these two struggling starters, we could be in for an offensive explosion.
Pick: Over 10 & Over 5.5 F5 via DraftKings Sportsbook
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How To Watch Red Sox vs. Braves
Date: Tuesday, May 9, 2023
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
Location: Truist Park— Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: TBS