Who would have thought that the entire week before the Super Bowl would all be about “deflate-gate” and not about playing the game?
You know every human has a subconscious and this will be the one thing that could come into play in this game on Sunday. Do you actually believe that in every football, baseball or basketball game every official goes into that game with a completely clear head and his or her subconscious doesn’t favor one team over the other just a little bit or even a lot?
I believe in some instances this plays a huge role in making some important calls that could sway the outcome of the game, not purposely but subconsciously, like calling a hold or pass interference. Now if you watch these games, a hold can be called on almost every play and pass interference is another very iffy call.
Now we go into Super Bowl XLIX with “inflate gate” on the minds of the zebras and with them hearing Mr. B in his latest news conference telling the world the officials checked the balls and they were in a controlled environment after they were checked by the refs.
So the guys in stripes just got thrown under the bus. Now do you think that could play on their subconscious at all?
One of my favorite plays in the NFL is when one team opens the favorite and then the game moves to the other team the favorite; the original chalk wins a lot of the time. This game opened with the Seahawks -2½ and now has moved to the Pats -1 and -1½ in some spots.
Now let’s just take a little look at the inner game itself.
• Defending Super Bowl champions returning to the Super Bowl the next year have gone 8-1 SU with 6 of the 9 games going OVER the listed total. Now that tells us to bet the Seahawks/OVER.
• The Patriots have gone 8-8 straight up and vs. the pointspread in its 16 games with the Seahawks. In their last 8 meetings the Seahawks have gone 6-2 ATS, which again leads us to the Seahawks.
• Will the point spread make a difference? In most NFL games the answer is a resounding NO, especially in the Super Bowl where the outright winner has gone 40-6-2. So don’t think for a minute this game will fall 1 point. Just pick the winner.
• This is the second straight time the best offense in the NFL meets the best defense. The old saying goes, a great defense can stop a great offense. Last year the Broncos had the top offense and the final score was Seattle 43, Denver 8. The Seahawks were -2 in that game.
In past Super Bowls the team with the best defense has gone 40-8. Just ask the Pittsburgh Steelers what a great defense can do.
• This is also the second straight year both No. 1 seeds from each conference have identical 14-4 records.
So what do we make of all of this? The last thing that most casual bettors remember is what happened in each team’s last game and that is why this line has moved the way it has.
Seattle tried very hard to let the Packers win but Green Bay said no. In that game the Seattle QB Russell Wilson was horrible until that last TD pass. The Patriots were having their way with the Colts and the light football.
If you go off of the last game it’s a no-brainer, bet the Pats. Unfortunately it’s just not that easy and if it was the books would be broke. We know that is not the case.
When everything is said and done the officials rule the roost and in most cases control the game, especially here. They will side with the best defense and the subconscious playing the winning factors in this game.
In my opinion: Seahawks Win!
My prop bets
There are more props in this game that we can count but the one prop usually getting a lot of play is will either team score 3 straight times. This does not count extra points, 2 point conversions or a safety. The line is YES -180 and NO +160.
Believe it or not the YES usually wins but this year I will be betting NO and taking the plus money.
Another bet I made was who will be penalized first? My subconscious says the Pats, and you can get that at EVEN money.
Get out, have some fun and head over to your favorite book. Pick up that huge Prop sheet so you can sit back and have bets going throughout the game.
Richard Saber, a former director of race and sports at the famed Stardust book, is GamingToday’s horse racing and sports handicapper. Follow Richard on Twitter @SabesBet. Contact Richard at [email protected].