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The remarkable run of underdog success continued this past week as pups went 10-4 ATS with seven winning outright. Two others (Miami and Detroit) lost by a single point.

Through six weeks, road underdogs have been extremely profitable, going an astounding 40-20-1 ATS (excludes two neutral site games in London).

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Perhaps surprising to many, the oft considered profitable category of home underdogs shows an 11-14-1 ATS mark

This may not necessarily be a sign of parity (two teams remain winless and two others are unbeaten) but perhaps more an indicator of how fortunes can change from one season to the next.

If the mathematicians are correct we should see a regression in the performance of road underdogs over the next month with home favorites having more success than they’ve had thus far.


Cardinals +3 at Giants: The Giants are rested following last Thursday’s loss at New England. They step down in class to face Arizona off back-to-back wins. But in their win at Cincinnati the Cards squandered 14 point fourth quarter lead. And in the home win over Atlanta they blew a 27-10 third-quarter lead, avoiding overtime when Atlanta missed a late extra point.

This is a matchup of two rookie QBs expected to lead their teams for many seasons and each is progressing nicely. Arizona has just four turnovers, best in the NFL. The Giants have lost a league-high 15. This is Arizona’s second trip east in three weeks. The Giants may get several players, including RB Saquon Barkley, back from injury. GIANTS

Vikings -1 at Lions: But for some questionable officiating Monday night the Lions would, or should, have won at Green Bay. All five of Detroit’s games have been decided by four or fewer points.

At 4-2, both of Minnesota’s losses have been on the road at division rivals Chicago and Green Bay. All four wins have been by at least 16 points although only Oakland has a winning record (3-2).

Detroit is clearly improved but still must learn how to close out games, an issue that’s plagued them for several seasons. The Vikings are the much better defensive team.

They’ve also gotten outstanding QB play from Kirk Cousins the past two weeks in wins over the Giants and Eagles. A continuation of such efforts lessens the pressure on RB Dalvin Cook and gives the Vikes formidable balance. ­VIKINGS

Raiders +6 at Packers: Oakland’s off its bye and continues its arduous road schedule with a visit to Lambeau Field.

Expected to start 1-6, the Raiders are 3-2 with their last two wins at the Colts and over the Bears in London. Both were playoff teams last season and neither win was fluky.

Green Bay’s off a comeback home win Monday night over Detroit and may again be without some key receivers.

Jon Gruden’s overhaul of the roster following his first season back as Raiders coach seems to be paying early dividends. The rested Raiders have the confidence – and the ground game – to give the Packers a competitive challenge. Defensively Oakland is allowing 1.1 yards per rush less than are the Packers. RAIDERS

Rams -3 at Falcons: Both are major disappointments. The Rams have lost three straight after starting 3-0, looking sluggish on offense all season.

These are the most recent NFC teams to have lost Super Bowls (both to New England.) Maybe there’s something to the Super Bowl loser hangover theory, at least early in the season.

After losing SB 51 Atlanta started 2017 3-0 before losing three straight, exactly how the Rams started this season. Atlanta won in Week 7 before going on to make the playoffs. Perhaps that bodes well for the Rams who allow a yard per play less than Atlanta while also having the better rushing offense and defense. RAMS

Saints +3 at Bears: QB Teddy Bridgewater and his teammates have done a remarkable job in guiding the Saints to four straight wins following the thumb injury to starter Drew Brees.

Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky is also injured and likely to return sooner than Brees, possibly for this game (listed as questionable). The Bears return from their bye which followed their 24-21 loss to Oakland in which they overcame a 17-0 deficit to take a 21-17 before allowing a late TD.

Both teams have excelled at avoiding turning over the football. Chicago’s has the statistically better defense (4.7 yards per play, a yard better than the Saints). New Orleans’ has been more of a “bend but don’t break” defense.

Using the “buy low, sell high” principle this would be a likely spot for the Saints’ run to suffer a setback. BEARS


Patriots -9.5 at Jets: The Jets were a different team with QB Sam Darnold back in their upset of Dallas. His performance gives us reasons to excuse the opening week 17-16 loss to Buffalo in which Darnold may have possibly already been suffering from the early stages of mononucleosis which was diagnosed a few days later.

The 6-0 Pats defeated the Jets in Week 3, limiting the Darnold-less Jets to 105 net yards. Jets coach Adam Gase led Miami to home upsets over New England the past two seasons. Against their lone common opponent, Buffalo, the key stats for each game were nearly identical with the Bills winning 17-16 at the Jets and losing 16-10 at home to the Pats. JETS

Last week: 2-4

Season: 18-18

About the Author

Andy Iskoe

Owner and author of “The Logical Approach,” Andy Iskoe has been a long time GT columnist, contributing weekly in-season columns on baseball, pro basketball and pro football.

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