If you’re a player struggling to make his way up the ladder on the PGA Tour, this is one of those weeks that’s been circled on your calendar.
This week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic is being held at the Detroit Golf Club. It’s the fifth straight year for this Tour stop in Michigan. While the field won’t be over the top by any stretch of the imagination (only 14 of the world’s top 50 players will be teeing it up), there will be just enough star power to intrigue players, fans, and bettors.
Our Rocket Mortgage Classic odds and predictions aim to put a little money in your pocket based on win bets and one top prop play this week.
For the players, this will give those who wouldn’t necessarily be in the field at a higher-profile event, the chance to shine. The purse is at $8.8 million, which is solid but nowhere near the $20 million purses for “designated” events.
But it’s still a great payday for those players looking to show they belong on the PGA Tour, and others who just might get that impressive finish to launch a stellar career.
For the fans, there’s still players like defending champ Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, and others to entice them to head to the golf course and take in the action.
As for the bettors, this is a tough one. A lot of the players in this field can be tossed out for the simple fact they have never been in this situation before.
At the top, you’ve got a little more than a handful of players to keep an eye on when it comes to picking a winner.
Odds to Win Rocket Mortgage Classic 2023
| Player | BetMGM |
|---|---|
| Rickie Fowler | +1200 |
| Tony Finau | +1200 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1400 |
| Justin Thomas | +1600 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1800 |
| Max Homa | +1800 |
| Sungjae Im | +1800 |
| Tom Kim | +2000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +2800 |
| Cam Davis | +3300 |
| Brian Harman | +4000 |
| Harris English | +4000 |
| Alex Smalley | +5000 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +5000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +5000 |
| Adam Hadwin | +5500 |
| Chris Kirk | +5500 |
| Sapp Straka | +5500 |
| Taylor Moore | +5500 |
| Aaron Rai | +6600 |
We list odds from BetMGM, but shop around at other top-rated sportsbooks to find the best prices on your plays.
Tough to Overlook Defending Champ
With a sprinkling of superstars in the field in this week’s 156-man field, it’s tough to overlook defending champion Tony Finau.
Finau, the co-favorite this week at an enticing +1200, showed he was the class of the field in 2022, as he beat runnerup Patrick Cantlay by five strokes.
It was Finau’s second victory of 2022 after he won the previous week’s tournament, the 3M Classic.
For his career, he’s now got six Tour wins and has already won twice in 2023. There is a reason to be just a little hesitant, as Finau has been feast or famine this season.
While he has the two wins, he only has two other top-10s in 15 cuts made. He’s seventh in the FedEx Cup rankings but only 14th, for some reason, in the official world rankings.
A victory here would move him up in both categories, and take him over $6 million in earnings for the year. If Finau starts out quickly, like he did last year with an opening-round 64, watch out.
He’s comfortable with his game and this course, and that makes for a great combination.
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It Might Just Be Rickie Time
We’ve been on the Rickie Fowler bandwagon a couple of times for top-10 finishes, and it’s paid off more often than not (with the exception of last week when a bogey on his 71st hole knocked him down to a T-13).
This week, we’re moving up our expectations and looking at him to win at +1200 as the co-favorite. Granted, Fowler missed the cut here last year, but that was part of a dismal 2022 campaign with just one top-10 finish in 22 events. In fact, he made just 13 cuts all of last season.
Flash forward to this wraparound season, and it’s a completely different story. He’s made 17 cuts in 19 events with seven top-10s.
There’s more. He’s also 17th in the FedEx Cup points race, and back up to No. 35 in the world rankings.
In short, he’s back.
Now he just needs to get back in the winner’s circle, and this just might be the perfect week for him. He hasn’t won since the 2019 WM Phoenix Open, but we’re betting that changes this week.
JT Worth a Toss at Longer Odds
Just for fun–and for old times’ sake–we’re going to take a look at Justin Thomas at +1600.
He’s not really a longshot, but if Thomas was in top form, he’d be down around +600 and one of the clear-cut favorites. Unfortunately, his game hasn’t been near where it needs to be to compete in high-profile tournaments.
Well, until last week.
Thomas wound up T-9 at the Travelers, and a third-round 62 showed he’s fixed a thing or two in his game. JT has fallen to 18th in the world rankings and 78th in the FedEx Cup points race.
Thomas has only two top-10s in 11 tournaments when he’s made the cut. Yes, he’s also missed three cuts. He’s got to be working on anything and everything to get back in top form.
That work paid off for him last week. A win this week with a lot of stars on the sidelines would be a step in the right direction to regaining his world-class status.
Around the Prop Scene
We’re only going with one prop bet this week: Zac Blair finishing in the top 20 at +600 at Caesars Sportsbook.
Many bettors have no idea who Blair is after he missed most of the 2021 and 2022 seasons while recovering from surgery for a torn labrum. To say that put his career in jeopardy is an understatement. Blair is a case study in perseverance.
Now, following a T-2 last week at the Travelers, he’s right around 25 FedEx Cup points short of earning that coveted two-year exemption. A T-31 finish would do it, but we’re going with a top-20 finish, as he nears the end of his 24 events under medical exemption status.
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