News that Aaron Rodgers is staying with the Green Bay Packers threw a shock into the NFL futures market Tuesday. But a few hours later, the Denver Broncos upped the ante by reaching a deal to acquire quarterback Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks. Here’s a look at how the Wilson trade reshapes Super Bowl 57 odds.
In a day of volatility more commonly found in the stock market, the Broncos’ future odds have had a haywire Tuesday. This morning, you could get the Broncos at +1800 at BetMGM. At the time, Denver was still believed to be a potential destination for Rodgers.
Once the dust settled, though, the Broncos’ Super Bowl odds shortened drastically across the betting market, adjusted from 30/1 to 16/1 at SuperBook USA, and all the way to 12/1 at FanDuel and BetMGM.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, went in the other direction, from 40/1 to 200/1 at the SuperBook, making them one of the biggest longshots on the board, per this tweet from VP of risk management Jeff Sherman.
NFL Super Bowl winner updated
Buf, GB 7/1
KC, LAR, SF 8/1
Ten, Ari, Bal 20/1
Ind, NE 30/1
Cle, Phi 40/1
Min, NO 50/1
TB, Wsh 60/1
LV, Car, Mia 80/1
Chi, Atl, Pit, NYG 100/1
Sea, Jax, NYJ, Det 200/1
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) March 8, 2022
Denver Broncos Super Bowl odds:
March 2nd: 44/1
This morning: 22/1
Now: 12/1 pic.twitter.com/pQyBVQKzt5
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) March 8, 2022
After the news broke that Rodgers was finalizing a deal to stay with the Packers, BetMGM’s odds on Denver rose to +2500. Any bettors who jumped on those odds are now huge Russell Wilson fans, as ESPN’s report that the QB is heading to Denver in exchange for a package of players and draft picks prompted an instant tightening of the Broncos’ odds to +1200.
The Broncos Super Bowl odds this morning: +1800
The Broncos Super Bowl odds after the Aaron Rodgers news: +2500
The Broncos Super Bowl odds now: +1200
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) March 8, 2022
Broncos’ Futures Odds At DraftKings
On Jan. 27 – days before the NFC and AFC championship games – the Broncos were +1800 at DraftKings, while the Seahawks were +3500.
With word of the deal for Wilson, Denver’s odds shortened to +1200, while Seattle’s odds ballooned to +7500. Oddsmakers evidently don’t believe Drew Lock, who was sent to the Seahawks in the trade, is the answer.
The Broncos also surpassed the Chargers on DraftKings’ odds to win the AFC West. Now priced at +250, Denver is the second favorite to finish atop the group, still behind the Kansas City Chiefs (-11) but ahead of Los Angeles (+425) and the Las Vegas Raiders (+850).
Odds Will Continue Shifting As Free Agency Ramps Up
Free agency is just eight days away in the NFL, so the futures market is likely not done being shuffled up.
Teams will be making moves to get under the salary cap in order to make trades and/or signed free agents. Other teams will be shopping for bargains if salary cap concerns prevent them from signing high-priced stars.
The next big piece to fall into place could be Deshaun Watson. A Watson trade would be another shock to the market, and bargain hunters might be looking to bet on possible landing spots now before the odds plummet.