Saber’s Horse Selections

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CHURCHILL DOWNS 

RACE 12

THE 142 RUNNING OF THE KENTUCKY DERBY

No. 11 Exaggerator gets a very good draw, he has really turned his game around since his trainer Keith Desormeaux changed his running style. We look for him to make the quick turn of foot at the top of the lane and get the jump on them all turning for home, he is our play at 8/1. We must use the undefeated No. 13 Nyquist who has beaten Exaggerator the three times the have met but those were before his style change. No. 17 Mor Spirit just finished second to Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby, he has never been worst then second in his 7 lifetime starts and will try to be the first horse ever to win from post 17. We will use along with the speedy No. 20 Danzing Candy who will try and pull off a Big Brown wire-to-wire win from post 20. 11**-13-17-20

Key exacta and tri 11 with 13-17-20 and 13-17-20 with 11

.50 cent tri 11 with 13-17-20 with all and 13-17-20 with 11 with all

SANTA ANITA 

Race 1

No. 4 Enola Gray blasted home in her debut by 16 lengths and has come back to work well.  No. 7 Shy Carmelita did not like the slop in her last start and will rebound in a big way today from off the pace. 

4-7

Race 2

No. 2 Tengas Ransom ran good off the layoff here last out. No. 5 Ward ’n Jerry was bet good in his two starts last year but never really ran to the betting, we will give him another shot today at a price. No. 7 Boy Howdy is a first time starter working line a runner. 2-5-7

Race 3

THE $75K DESERT CODE GOING DOWN THE HILL

A lot of folks thought that No. 1 Smokey Image would be at Churchill Downs today running in the Kentucky Derby but those dreams have gone up in smoke. He gets a turnback today and will try turfing down the hill. No. 5 Tristan’s Trilogy just broke his maiden in fine style down the hill and jockey Brice Blanc fits this one like a glove. 1-5

Race 4

No. 9 Flaming Vixen gets her second start off the layoff and second at this level, her last has her set up for the win. No. 3 Papa Mambo looks very sneaky in here at a big price. 9**-3

Race 5

No. 1 London Legacy likes this track and gets a big boast in class off the big win and Bill Spawr claim. No. 4 Karma King is very consistent and will go better today with the move back to sprinting on the dirt. 1-4

Race 6

No. 3 Macro Access ran big last out for a $32k price tag, he exits our HTW list but the drop in class is a concern. No. 1 Te Rapa exits the same race and gets Bejarano. No. 5 Rockin Robin also exits the race, he gets the bug boy Lindsay and drops to the level of his win. 1-3-5

Exacta box 1-3-5

Race 7

Probably need to hit the all button in this race. No. 1 sienna Siren gets a needed big drop in class. No. 3 Short Memories and No. 9 Hilda both drop and look to have a shot. 1-3-9

Race 8

No. 3 Upbeat Tempo is in good form and fits perfect at this level. No. 6 Unusually Big took 12 races to break his maiden but he finally did it and is spotted for a big effort and finds a lot of speed to make his late run. No. 7 Zim N the Mailman is in top form and exits the Upbeat Tempo race. 3-6-7

Race 9

THE GRADE III $100K SENORITA AT A MILE ON THE GRASS

No. 3 Decked Out exits out HTW list, she was hammered at the windows last out and the money was right as she won by daylight. No. 7 Be Mine also exits our HTW list, she shipped in from Tampa and won for fun on this grass and now gets the acid test. No. 9 Stays in Vegas gets back on the grass where she is 2 for 2. 3-7-9

Race 10

Maidens go six furlongs, Bejarano who rules the roost here but seems to be overlooked when it comes to Kentucky Derby mounts gets on No. 5 Westfest who looks odds on with this group. No. 9 Ketos also has some good early speed and gets off the grass, he looks the main danger. 5-9

Race 11

There is very little early speed in this mile turf race and No. 4 Zip N Bayou could find the front end and get brave. No. 5 Dressed to a T has run all good races on the grass, he will be making a late run. No. 8 Amboseli good in her first race stateside and has a good last work. No. 9 Kiss At Midnight has finished second in her last two starts and looks the one to beat at this level. 9**-4-5-8

CHECK FOR LATE SCRATCHES AND CHECK THAT THE SADDLE CLOTH NUMBERS MATCH OUR SELECTION NUMBERS.

Richard Saber, a former director of race and sports at the famed Stardust book, is GT’s horse racing and sports handicapper. Twitter: @SabesBet. Email: [email protected].

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