Saints vs. Bucs Odds & Prediction: This Tom Brady Fact Against New Orleans Will Surprise You

The New Orleans Saints are scheduled to face the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football to conclude Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season.

The Bucs are listed as a favorite in this NFC South battle by 3.5 to 4 points on the odds boards at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and PointsBet.

Let’s take a look at our Saints vs. Bucs odds on Monday Night Football, as well as a prediction.

Although Tampa Bay has a record of only 5-6 (3-7-1 against the spread), it holds a half-game lead over the Atlanta Falcons (5-7) in the division and is listed at -400 to win the South (DraftKings). New Orleans (4-8 SU/4-8 ATS) is another game back, along with Carolina, and has odds of +1000 to take the division.

Since Tom Brady joined Tampa Bay for the 2020 season, he and the Bucs have had trouble with New Orleans. They lost all four regular-season games in 2020-21 but managed to win their 2020 playoff meeting in the Superdome 30-20 as a 2-point underdog en route to a title in Super Bowl 55.

In Week 2 this season, the Bucs broke through against the host Saints 20-10, intercepting former Bucs No. 1 draft choice Jameis Winston three times and sacking him on six occasions. But he’s no longer the New Orleans QB and was replaced by veteran Andy Dalton, who is listed as the league’s 10th-rated passer. By comparison, Brady ranks 15th.

But that game wasn’t all bad for the Saints, for the defense held Tampa Bay to its lowest yardage total of the year with 260.

In fact, the Saints have been Brady’s kryptonite in those five regular-season meetings in the past three years, intercepting him eight times and getting 14 sacks. In each of the past three seasons, he’s had his worst passer-rating game of the season versus New Orleans. It was at 79.3 this season.

Last Sunday, both teams suffered defeats more demoralizing than usual.

New Orleans was a 13-0 loser in San Francisco, its first time to go scoreless in 21 seasons. Kamara had two lost fumbles to add to the team’s league-worst minus-14 turnover differential.

The Bucs were 23-17 losers at Cleveland in overtime, blowing a 17-10 lead in the final two minutes of regulation and yielding a six-play, 71-yard TD march in the extra session. That snapped their two-game winning streak.

Tampa Bay was without lead RB Leonard Fournette (hip pointer, expected back this week), one game after he and rookie Rachaad White helped spearhead a Bucs’ running game that produced season-highs of 44 carries for 162 yards. But over the course of the season, the Bucs are averaging a league-low 73 yards rushing a game. And no team in the past 35 years reached the playoffs with a norm of 3.2 yards a carry, which is TB’s current average.

Adding to the Bucs’ woes is that their defense backfield took a physical beating last week and could be using a host of backups Sunday. Plus they lost their star right tackle, Tristan Wirfs (ankle).

But Tampa Bay received a boost in the passing game from WR Chris Godwin, who caught 12-of-13 targeted throws last week for 110 yards.

New Orleans, meanwhile, has struggled mightily since beating Las Vegas 24-0 five weeks ago in what was categorized as a revenge game for head coach Dennis Allen. The Saints have since lost three of four with their only victory coming at home two weeks ago against the severely depleted LA Rams, 27-20.

But now they return to Raymond James Stadium, where they’ve gone 4-0 the past three seasons, including two colossal upset victories the past two seasons. In 2020, they routed the eventual world champs 38-3 as a 4-point dog and then won 9-0 last season as an 11.5-point underdog, tying for the third-biggest upset win of the season.