The New Orleans Saints (3-2 SU and ATS) visit the Seattle Seahawks (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN) to close NFL Week 7. The Saints are laying points on the road, per oddsboards around the betting market.
Saints At Seahawks Betting Lines
Line: Saints -4, 42.5 (Caesars, BetRivers, PointsBet)
Line movement and notes: Saints opened -3.5 in Las Vegas and were bet to as high as -5.5, before the number came back toward the home underdog. Seahawks +4.5 was available the day before the game for bettors looking to take the points.
MNF Facts & Analysis
The skinny: Seattle QB Geno Smith, replacing injured starter Russell Wilson (IR, finger), makes his initial home start for the Seahawks.
Facts: Smith’s first start for Seattle was last Sunday night in Pittsburgh, when he directed a spread-beating rally in the second half. Alas, Seattle lost 23-20 in overtime after erasing a 14-0 deficit.
Excluding the Saints’ Week 2 loss at Carolina, when QB Jameis Winston had a career-worst passer rating of 26.9, he’s had 12 TD throws and one INT in his other four outings and stands as the league’s fifth-rated passer. In his final year in Tampa Bay, 2019, he was 27th on the chart.
Even with last week’s loss, Seattle is 13-2 the past four seasons playing in the Eastern time zone. But when returning home and playing the next week, they are only 6-6, including five losses as a favorite. One such defeat was to the Saints in 2019, 33-27 as a 5-point choice. Last year, Seattle fell to the Giants 17-12 as an 11-point pick.
New Orleans had a Week 6 bye after beating Washington 33-22 in Week 5. Two years ago, a 7-1 Saints team came off its midseason break and suffered a 26-9 home loss to Atlanta as a 14-point pick. This week, a pair of New Orleans stalwarts came off IR — DE Marcus Davenport and LB Kwon Alexander.
Analysis: Wilson, the league’s top-rated passer, was only 2-2 in the four games he played start to finish, so there should be little reason to expect Smith to spur a sudden revival, especially without leading rusher Chris Carson (IR, neck) and with backup Alex Collins, who had 101 yards last week, hobbled (questionable/hip, glut issues). Smith, who was sacked five times last week, will be facing the league’s second-rated pass defense.
As for that Seattle defensive unit, the good news is it no longer is on the embarrassing track to break the 71-year-old league record for most yards yielded per game. The bad news is Seattle is still last on the 2021 chart. Winston and RB Alvin Kamara should benefit nicely. Plus, two ailing offensive linemen have been activated off IR this week for New Orleans.
Saints At Seahawks Pick
Saints 28, Seahawks 17
Last week: 8-6 ATS; 10-4 SU
Season total: 53-39-2 (.576) ATS; 63-31 (.670) SU
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