San Diego State vs. Alabama Predictions, Odds, Props: Top Seed on Upset Alert in Sweet 16?

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The Sweet 16 continues as we have a South Region matchup between the No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs and the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, the Alabama Crimson Tide. The winner will play for the South Region title in the Elite Eight. This will be a great game, and if you need help picking a side, we have got you covered as we will break down the San Diego State vs. Alabama predictions, odds, and props.

For San Diego State, they took down Charleston in the First Round and then rolled Furman last week. While they have looked impressive, the level of competition for the Aztecs between the first two rounds and the Sweet 16 is drastically different. Meanwhile, Alabama has seemingly jogged into this spot as Maryland and Texas A&M-CC were no match for the Crimson Tide’s high-powered offense.

March Madness 2023 has been one of the most enjoyable tournaments in recent memory because of the number of upsets and exciting games during the first weekend. Now that we are on to the Sweet 16, the games will improve, starting with San Diego State vs. Alabama.

San Diego State vs. Alabama March Madness Betting odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

When making a pick for this game, make sure that you have scanned the odds and lines from all of the top mobile sportsbooks so that you can ensure that you are getting the best number for your wager. Doing this will also allow you to claim each sportsbook’s bonus offer, which has been very generous during March Madness.

Here, we have included the San Diego State vs. Alabama odds from some of our top-rated mobile sportsbooks.

San Diego State vs. Alabama Betting Trends

San Diego State

  • San Diego State is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games
  • The total has gone Under in 10 of San Diego State’s last 10 games
  • The total has gone Under in five of San Diego State’s last five games played in March
  • San Diego State is 6-0 straight up (SU) in its last six games

Alabama

  • Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
  • The total has gone Under in five of Alabama’s last six games
  • Alabama is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games played on a Friday
  • Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last five games

Read more: March Madness odds

San Diego State vs. Alabama Predictions, Odds, Props: Top Seed on Upset Alert in Sweet 16?
Can Matt Bradley and the Aztecs pull off the upset? It’s possible in our San Diego State vs. Alabama predictions. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Overview (29-6, 17-16-1 ATS)

San Diego State does not have an explosive offense, as only Matt Bradley averages 10+ points per game, but this is a deep team that likes to utilize its size and athletism to control the game. The Aztecs rank 263rd in KenPom‘s Adjusted Tempo rating, and they are one of the best half-court teams in the country.

They will have their hands full with this high-flying Alabama offense, but San Diego State has a real advantage in this game. They are good at defending in transition, where the Tide has beaten teams all season; they defend the three-point line well, allowing teams to shoot just 28.7% from beyond the arc (ranked fourth in the country).

Offensively, they must hit threes to ensure that Alabama does not let things get out of hand. Even though San Diego State has a counter for everything that Alabama excels at, there’s a reason that the Tide are the top seed in the tournament. San Diego State does not shoot the ball all that well, but they are a great rebounding team, especially on the offensive side. They are also getting to the free-throw line around 20 times per game.

San Diego State will not simply outscore Alabama. If they can control the glass and get to the charity stripe, something Alabama fails to do, they can chip away at that lead. Or if things go right, keep building on its lead and play incredible defense to upset the top seed.

Speaking of defense, San Diego State ranks fifth in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rating. They are ranked in the top 30 in scoring, rebounds allowed per game, opponents’ effective field goal percentage, opponents’ made field goals per game, and opponents’ three-point shooting percentage.

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Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Overview (31-5, 21-15 ATS)

The Alabama Crimson Tide has dominated the college basketball season and, as a result, is the top seed in the tournament and is the current betting favorite at most sportsbooks to win the National Championship — something the basketball program has never done. In fact, the Tide is still searching for its first Final Four appearance, and this very well could be the team to do it.

Everything starts with top NBA Draft prospect Brandon Miller, who leads the team in scoring with 19.1 points per game. He is pulling in 8.2 rebounds per game and shoots 39.5% from deep, which is impressive considering that he shoots a high volume of three-point shots.

As a team, Alabama’s offense ranks 18th in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rating, and they rank inside the top five in scoring (82.3), average scoring margin (+14.1), total rebounds per game (44.4), and second-half scoring (43.4). They are not as good defensively, but as the third-ranked defense according to KenPom, this team can go toe-to-toe with any high-powered offense. If Alabama makes it past this round, chances are they will get that chance.

Now, Alabama has slept walked through the first two rounds. If they do that tonight, they will get punched in the mouth, and I am not sure they will be able to recover. However, the difference in talent between the two teams is stark, and the Tide is known as a second-half team, so this game will not be close to over for San Diego State until that clock hits triple zeros.

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San Diego State vs. Alabama Prediction

Alabama is a tremendous team on both sides of the court, but that offense makes them the best team in the country. However, San Diego State’s defense has quietly been one of the best all season, and they might have the inside track to knock off the top seed.

The Aztecs defend everything that Alabama is elite at, especially the three-ball and in transition. If they can get them off their game, San Diego State can easily win this game.

The talent advantage heavily leans in Alabama’s favor, but San Diego State can slow this team down while both teams feel each other out. Taking San Diego State and the points may seem like the play, but Alabama leads the country in second-half points. For as much as I like this Aztec team, the offense can absolutely disappear without warning.

Instead, we will take the first half under, as Alabama’s offense has been sloppy to start games this March, and San Diego State’s offense is just sloppy in general. The first 10-20 minutes of the game will be massive for this under, and with the way both teams counteract each other’s strengths, I believe we are looking at an ugly first half.

Pick: 1H Under 63.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook

San Diego State vs. Alabama Prop Bet Prediction 

Matt Bradley Over 13.5 Points (-120, DraftKings)

Bradley is the leading scorer for San Diego State and one of the few reliable three-point shooting options for the Aztecs. On the season, he is shooting 36.6% from deep and has an effective field goal percentage of 50%. While his points per game are the lowest since his Freshman season at Cal, he is still the best scorer on the team. 

He has gone over this number twice in his last three games, and with his usage rate, he will have the ball in his hands more than anyone. With Alabama’s fouling trouble, San Diego State can chip away at this team at the free-throw line, where Bradley might get a chunk of his points. 

Suppose San Diego State comes out and takes an early lead. In that case, the frustration from an Alabama team that wants to push the tempo but is getting bullied by a methodical team will cause more open buckets and foul shots for the Aztecs. If that happens, Bradley should easily go over this number. 

Also read: Sweet 16 player props, parlays 

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How to Watch San Diego State vs. Alabama

Date: Friday, March 24, 2023

Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. ET 

Location: KFC Yum! Center — Louisville, KY

Where to Watch: TBS

Check out: NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 odds

About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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