Is it payback time?
Nationally ranked Baylor, Purdue, and Gonzaga sit in opportunistic spots, with home games Saturday against other nationally-ranked teams that have beaten them.
The trio comprises a college basketball betting blockbuster with games perfectly spread out for gamblers.
Here are odds and some betting nuggets for:
- No. 8 Texas at No 9 Baylor, 2 p.m. ET
- No. 17 Indiana at No. 5 Purdue, 7:30 p.m.
- No 15 St. Mary’s at No. 12 Gonzaga 10 p.m.
What’s the Value of Home Court to College Basketball Point Spreads?
These teams have been moneyline maestros on their own floors.
Baylor is 13-2 at home on the moneyline. Early January losses to TCU and Kansas State are the only blemishes.
Purdue is 14-1, with a six-game win streak.
Gonzaga is 12-1, with a four-game win streak.
What about ATS?
That’s trickier, of course. But Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations at DraftKings, believes enough patterns have been established to assess a value on home cooking this weekend.
That provides at least a compass for gamblers to finalize an angle.
“We figure that home courts are worth 3-4 points for teams, sometimes even a little bit more,” Avello told Gaming Today.
“All these teams like Texas, Arizona, Purdue, and UCLA don’t lose much at home. Gonzaga has an excellent home floor too. The only team that seems to give them trouble in that conference right now is St. Mary’s and that figures to be an excellent game.”
Texas (22-6) at Baylor (20-8) Odds: Spread, Total, Moneyline
Here are odds from top sportsbooks on this Big 12 college basketball matchup:
NCAAB · Sat (2/25) @ 2:07pm ET
| UT Texas | at | BAYL Baylor |
| Ferrell Center, Waco, Texas | ||
Texas Betting Trends
Handled Baylor 76-71 in the teams’ first game Jan. 30, keeping spread and Over-Under bettors on edge. The Longhorns covered -4 and Under 149 squeaked it out.
Texas has gone 4-2 since then, including a 72-54 triumph over Iowa State at -7.5 last Tuesday. It is 3-3 ATS.
Baylor Betting Trends
Glad to get home after a rough trip through the Midwest. The Bears lost both to Kansas and Kansas State.
Oddsmakers expected the setback to Kansas. It was a road rematch from a home win, and Baylor was stung 87-71 at +5.5. It then flopped at -2 in losing to Kansas State 75-65.
Since the first matchup, Baylor is 4-2 moneyline and ATS.
Baylor has won six straight at home.
Indiana (19-9) at Purdue (24-4) Odds: Point Spread, Total, Moneyline
Purdue is a large home favorite against in-state rival Indiana on Saturday.
NCAAB · Sat (2/25) @ 7:30pm ET
| IU Indiana | at | PUR Purdue |
| Mackey Complex, West Lafayette, Indiana | ||
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Indiana Betting Trends
Hit a high-water mark with a 79-74 triumph over Purdue on Feb. 4. Bettors jumped on the Indy vibe and drove the Hoosiers down from +3 to a pick by game time.
The Hoosiers built a 15-point halftime lead, withstood a furious Purdue rally and knocked the Boilermakers out of the No. 1 ranking.
But that was then.
Indiana is in a post-Purdue funk now. It has lost three straight against the spread, is 2-3 ATS and 3-2 moneyline in the last five. Setbacks to unranked Northwestern and Michigan State underscore the scuffle and Indiana has lost two straight on the road.
“The first time they played it was in the Top 5 in handle for us that day, and I think it will be that way again,” Avello noted. “Indiana took a lot of money in that game, but I think Purdue will be the public play this time. Indiana is not a good road team.”
Purdue Betting Trends
This is the type of statement and revenge game spot for Purdue. It’s an in-state rivalry, Indy is scuffling, and now this game lays right for the Boilermakers.
This is the type of game in which Purdue star Zach Edey can go off again. He had 33 points and 18 rebounds in the first game.
How Indy adjusts to him will be a big factor in this game.
Purdue is on a home roll, riding a six-game moneyline win streak and 5-1 ATS mark.
Were it not for the near-halfcourt buzzer-beating shot Rutgers beat them with, the Boilermakers would be undefeated at home on the moneyline this year.
The Boilermakers have enjoyed a stellar season, enjoying moneyline win streaks of 13 and nine games.
It’s been harder ATS, of course. Within the 13-game moneyline win streak were six straight games in which they did not cover. One was a 33-point win that failed to cover 36.5
Purdue is 2-2 moneyline and ATS since the first Indiana game, losing on the road to Northwestern and Maryland. It toppled Ohio State 82-55 at -7.5 in its last.
St. Mary’s (25-5) at Gonzaga (24-5) Odds: Point Spread, Total, Moneyline
Gonzaga is spotting St. Mary’s a field goal-plus in Saturday’s tilt.
St. Mary’s Betting Trends
The Gaels haven’t won an outright WCC regular season title since 2011-12 and haven’t beat Gonzaga twice in a season since 2015-16. If they are to do it, it will be playing the tight defensive game they are known for.
St, Mary’s plays a slow-paced game. It has only yielded 70 three times this season and two were in overtime. It has given up just 60 points a game on average in the last four.
St. Mary’s has won four in a row and gone 5-1 since the triumph over Gonzaga. It comes in off of an 83-52 triumph over University of Pacific, covering -18. The loss came to Loyola Marymount.
In the first matchup with Gonzaga, St. Mary;s held playmaker Julian Strawther to 10 points. Gonzaga is 16-0 when he scores at least 14.
Gonzaga Betting Trends
The Bulldogs covered -23 in a 97-72 triumph over the University of San Diego on Thursday night. That kept the OVER ball rolling, as Gonzaga games are now six straight OVER the total.
And why not? The Bulldogs lead the country with 87.5 points per game. They have been a scoring machine. In its last 10 games, Gonzaga has scored more than 80 points in nine of them. The only exception was the first game against St. Mary’s, when Gonzaga was beaten 78-70 in overtime Feb. 4.
On the bright side for totals players, it marked the beginning of the OVER run. Gonzaga-St. Mary’s exceeded 137 points, the lowest total of any game the Bulldogs have played this year.
Although Gonzaga has a 78-33 lead in the series, St. Mary’s has more than held its own in recent action.
The Gaels have won two of the last three, with victories of 67-57 and 78-70 in overtime. Gonzaga’s win was 82-69, suggesting that if Gonzaga gets its way and wins at home, a total of 150 is a reasonable total to project to its backers.
Also read: 2023 March Madness odds
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