Serrano vs. Meinke Odds, Paul vs. Bourland Picks: Fight Night Preview

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Moneyline drama is absent, but prop bettors have much to consider on the length of Amanda Serrano’s 12-round featherweight championship bout against Nina Meinke on Saturday night in Puerto Rico.

Serrano tops a card that includes social media superstar Jake Paul, who promotes her. Paul decided that Serrano should take the stage in her native Puerto Rico and will appear in an eight-round co-main battle against Ryan Bourland.

Paul and Serrano are lopsided favorites and will discourage moneyline betting. At the time of publishing, Serrano had a menu of props established at FanDuel, while Paul did not.

Here is a look at Serrano vs. Meinke odds as well as Paul vs. Bourland picks.

Amanda Serrano vs. Nina Meinke Betting Odds

Serrano was -6000 at DraftKings and -2500 at FanDuel on Sunday.

Meinke’s prices were more consistent: +1200 at DraftKings and +1420 at FanDuel.

A parlay with moneyline victories by Paul and Serrano, a likely combination, pays -1200 at DraftKings and -790 at FanDuel.

Those moneyline odds won’t entice most players, but some big-money gamblers may leverage heavy money on whatever they consider a sure thing.

Serrano vs. Meinke Betting Props

It gets quite playable here.

FanDuel posted Serrano as -135 to win on points and +125 for a KO/TKO.

There’s a lot for bettors to sink their money into on this wager.

Why would a fighter with significant power — 30 knockouts in a 46-2-1 record — provide such a low yield to annex a KO/TKO?

That’s because Serrano’s last seven fights have gone the distance. That includes a split-decision loss to Katie Taylor and a 10-round unanimous decision victory over Heather Hardy.

Meinke’s last six fights have gone the full distance. Her 18-3 mark includes only four knockouts. She has been stopped only once.

Put those two trends together and it points to a lengthy fight here.

FanDuel has the fight at -158 to go the distance and +124 not to.

Serrano vs. Meinke Fight Stoppage Props

The popular group betting rounds at FanDuel present a window of opportunity for gamblers who believe this fight ends inside the distance.

There are different ways to cash this bet.

Serrano Knockout Round Grouping

Six-Round Props

Rounds 1-6: +420
Rounds 7-12: +270

Three-Round Props (Larger Payout)

1-3: +1200
4-6: + +700
7-9: + 480
10-12: + 850

Two-Round Props

1-2: +1900
3-4: +1300
5-6: + +1000
7-8: + 650
9-10: +1000
11-12: +1300

One-Round Props

This is nearly impossible to hit. Odds range from +3100 to +4300 to nail the exact knockout round.

Meinke Victory Methods

Points: +1800
KO/TKO: +3500
One-Round Knockout: Each round is +10000

Serrano vs. Meinke Wild Card Angle: Three-Minute Rounds

This is cutting edge to women’s boxing,

Serrano retained her WBA, IBF, and WBO featherweight titles by defeating Brazil’s Danila Ramos in October via a 12-round decision. All rounds were three minutes rather than the customary two for women’s boxing.

It was the first women’s fight to be contested in this format since 2007.

Serrano previously vacated her WBC title because the governing body prevents women from fighting 12 three-minute rounds. This is Serrano’s second straight fight scheduled for 12 three-minute rounds.

Meinke has never been past 10 two-minute rounds or 20 minutes. That means she is scheduled for 36 minutes here, which is 80% more than her previous high.

This may raise a stamina issue and the possibility of a late stoppage.

The three-minute rounds present an interesting dynamic to bettors. Will Serrano pace herself more because of the longer fight — perhaps robbing her of bursts that can result in a KO/TKO — or will the length of the fight work to her advantage? In that scenario, Meinke would be a candidate to fade late.

That’s why this is a fair wagering consideration.

Meinke says she has been sparring with men for three-minute rounds and does not expect the added time to impact the fight.

Serrano vs. Meinke Betting Trends

Serrano and Meinke have a couple of common opponents, with both results looking favorable to Serrano. Serrano lost a decision to Katie Taylor, who stopped Meinke in 2017. Meinke also lost a 10-round decision to Sarah Mahfoud, whom Serrano then outpointed.

Meinke’s sparse schedule could be a problem. She has waged only three fights over the last 5.5 years. Meinke had one bout in 2019, one in 2020, and lost her last bout to Mahfoud in 2022.

This could affect her stamina.

Prediction: Serrano KO/TKO (+125)
Secondary Wager: Serrano KO/TKO Rounds 10-12 (+850)

Jake Paul vs. Ryan Bourland Betting Trends

Paul

Paul has cashed his own parlay — charisma and the social media age.

He rose to fame on Vine before playing the role of Dirk Mann on the Disney Channel series Bizaardvark for two seasons.

A boxing and promotional career followed.

Paul is now taking on lower-tier boxers after bashing YouTubers and former MMA fighters.

He threw the best punch of his career — a thunderous uppercut that dropped and stopped Andre August in the first round of their bout last December. That made him 8-1 with five knockouts.

It was his first knockout over an actual boxer. This matchup has a similar possibility.

Will Bourland Walk Into a Paul Bomb?

Bourland, 17-2 with six knockouts, is no stranger to being nailed by a big shot. One of his setbacks came via right hand from Israel Duffus in the first round of a 2015 fight.

Bettors might grasp the intangible possibility that Paul is going to spend this career phase building his mystique with noteworthy knockouts.

That result can be enabled with stylistic matchups like this and bettors may have some opportunities to take some shots at the KO/TKO wager.

It will be interesting to see where oddsmakers place odds on an early knockout when they do.

How to Watch Jake Paul vs. Ryan Bourland

Date: Saturday, March 2, 2024
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Coliseo de Puerto Rico — San Juan, Puerto Rico
Live Stream: DAZN

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About the Author
Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo

Writer
Dave Bontempo is an award-winning writer and broadcaster, who has covered the sports industry since the 1970s. He won the Sam Taub Award for Excellence in Boxing Broadcasting by the Boxing Writers Association of America in 1997, and is in the New Jersey and Atlantic City Boxing Halls of Fame. Bontempo has broadcast major fights all over the world. The advent of legalized sports wagering shifted his focus to this exciting new industry in 2018.

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