It’s in Willie Fritz we trust, as we offer up South Alabama vs. Tulane odds and a prediction for Saturday’s Week 1 CFB tilt.
A Bourbon Street souvenir shop must have noted the pigskin coach’s career and printed novelty money—maybe picturing him surfing a big green wave in the center oval?—to commemorate his success, especially at the sportsbook window.
It’s big to win games, maybe bigger to cover the spread to keep alums and boosters happy, their wallets thick.
In his career, the 63-year-old Kansas native is 69-42-1 against the point spread (ATS), reflecting a magnificent 62.1% cover rate that tops the chart of all current Division I bosses who’ve logged at least 100 career games.
South Alabama second-year coach Kane Wommack is a career 12-13 ATS, and way out of Fritz’s class. This game features two outstanding quarterbacks, but we’re going with the dependable man and team inside their own stadium.
South Alabama vs. Tulane Betting Lines: Point Spread, Moneyline, Total
Tulane is priced as a favorite of , while South Alabama can be had for on the spread and on the moneyline.
Here are betting lines from the top sports betting apps.
South Alabama Jaguars (10-3, 7-6 ATS in ’22)
For the first time since 2010, a South Alabama defense yielded only double digits in average rushing yards, at 93, last season. Most of that stout defense returns, but the Jags can be their own worst enemy; their average of 71 penalty yards a year ago was seventh-worst in the country.
This game will be aired on ESPNU, and viewers should hone in on South Alabama’s defensive line against Tulane’s offensive line, where this game will be decided.
Those trenches will resemble a Grand Basho Sumo Scrum in Tokyo, as Phil Steele, in his comprehensive preview annual, rates the Jags’ D-Line 24th in the nation and Tulane’s O-Line No. 26.
Tulane will triumph if it can keep these fearsome Jaguars from reaching 6-foot-3, 220-pound junior quarterback Michael Pratt, who threw for 3,010 yards last season. He had 27 TDs a year ago, with five picks, and has 68 career scoring throws and 21 interceptions.
South Alabama senior QB Carter Bradley (6-3, 216), who began his career at Toledo, tallied 3,343 aerial yards, 20th in the country, in 2022, with 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
If Pratt has time to throw, and lanes open for Tulane runners, and Fritz can keep ’em guessing as to whether they’re dashing or passing, the fourth quarter—and the game—will be Tulane’s.
For the Jaguars, the main spear is Wy’Kevious Thomas (6-2, 304), a junior nose tackle from Georgia who nearly helped his guys beat UCLA (a 32-31 defeat) in the Rose Bowl last season
On the other side, senior center Sincere Haynesworth (6-1, 310), senior left guard Prince Pines (6-5, 335) and junior Cameron Wire (6-6, 307) build an NFL-like Green Wave fence that allows Pratt, and fellow skill players, to prosper.
No. 24 Tulane Green Wave (12-2, 12-2 ATS in ’22)
Other figures highlight Fritz’s fantastic results in New Orleans. As a home favorite over the past four seasons, the Green Wave is 16-4 against the number.
The sharpest of bettors around the country know that success rate. Tulane beat Cincinnati and UCF, in the AAC title game, when both were ranked, to cap the 2022 regular season. And as a 2-point dog, the Green Wave slapped USC, 46-45, in a rousing Cotton Bowl win.
“They fought, scratched, and clawed,” former Tulane quarterback Shaun King told Gaming Today on Saturday. “Down 15 points with four minutes left against USC, they found a way to win. So, hat-tip to them.”
In 1998, King led Tulane to its lone undefeated season since WWII, at 12-0, with a 41-27 victory over BYU in the Liberty Bowl. He set an NCAA single-season pass-efficiency record, of 183.3, that stood until Hawaii’s Colt Brennan registered a 186 in 2006.
That this year’s team gets to start in the Top 25, unlike a year ago, is a big plus to King.
“Coach Fritz has found a niche, and he’s been able to get players like [outstanding tailback] Tyjae Spears and [quarterback Michael] Pratt,” he said. “That win over USC gave me a little debate power next time Keyshawn Johnson gets to chirpin’.”
Reserves Kai Horton and Justin Ibieta convinced Steele to rank Tulane’s QBs 30th in the country.
Pratt’s top two receivers depart, so he will depend upon Lawrence Keys (5-10, 180), who started his career at Notre Dame, Jha’Quan Jackson (17-yard average on 33 catches last season), and 6-5 targets Chris Brazzell and Alex Bauman.
We also like the foundation of Tulane’s passing game, in passing yards per throw, which is top-20 on both sides of the ball; South Alabama was 48th on offense last year, and 36th on defense.
South Alabama vs. Tulane Prediction
Should Willie Fritz’s fortunes continue, in about 80 games he will be mentioned among Urban Meyer and Bill Snyder as the modern-era point-spread coaching kings.
South Alabama has a fine kicker in senior Diego Guajardo, so give the Jaguars several field goals. Problem is, the Wave will tally TDs as the Jags rely on 3’s.
Our Pick: Green Wave
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