Of all the major programs battling this weekend, only five possess defenses that allow more than 500 yards of offense per game—Arkansas State (538.7), Louisiana Tech (536), Georgia Southern (531.7), UMass (531.3) and South Florida (523.7).
That translates to a yield of 45 points a game, in the bottom 10 in the country, for the Bulls.
That will cause them major issues in their first trip to Provo, as will the altitude, the late start and a rabid fan base revved up from a 3-0 start.
If South Florida isn’t careful, BYU will cover this total all by itself.
South Florida Bulls
The 1-2 Bulls were zapped 45-0 at North Carolina State and yielded 42 at home to Florida. They are an equal-opportunity sieve, as bad on the highway as they are on familiar turf.
Three quarterbacks have attempted passes, even a wide receiver. The most effective has been true freshman Timmy McClain (50% completion rate, 8.1 yards per attempt, one TD, two interceptions and a fumble).
Running back Brian Battie and receiver Xavier Weaver (24.2-yard average, one TD) are the Bulls’ “threats.”
USF is in for a horrible evening. It averages 0.144 points per play, in the bottom 10 in the nation, as is its third-down conversion rate of 24.2%. It yields 8.7 yards per play, one away from the worst in the land.
Watch BYU quarterback Jaren Hall and tailback Tyler Allgeier run for long scamper after long scamper, since the Bulls allow 7.8 yards per rush, at the very bottom of college football.
The Cougars are undefeated by playing smart and efficient football. They are spectacularly steady.
Hall has thrown for 561 yards and seven touchdowns, having been picked off twice, but he keeps defenders honest with his running ability. He’s taken off 20 times, averaging 8.3 yards. Allegeir averages nearly 90 yards a game.
Receivers Neil Pau’u (190 yards, 3 TDs), who has completed a pass this season, and Gunner Romney (108 yards, 2 TDs) lead the air attack. Sophomore Dallin Holker (19-yard average) has emerged from a group of tight ends.
Nothing outrageous, but his line protects Hall extremely well, the Cougars allow a paltry 0.245 points per play (21st in the country) and they have a turnover margin of +1.7 per game, sixth-best in the nation.
This team will lull you into a 40-0 deficit, especially on its own grass for the third consecutive game.
Sports Betting Recommendation
For those in attendance and a national ESPN2 television audience, the best aspect of this game will be so few penalties being called. It figures to move fast, with few interruptions and little resistance from South Florida.
This porous USF defense just might make Jaren Hall resemble Jim McMahon or Robbie Bosco, two of BYU’s famous former slingers. It’ll be over by halftime.
We are sticking with a singular action on Over, since our two models show BYU victories by 52-21 and 37-22 scores.
Just for the record, though, BYU last shut out a foe in the next-to-last game of 2014, a 64-0 pasting of Savannah State.