Spain vs. Sweden Predictions, Odds, Props: La Roja Clear Favorites in Women’s World Cup Semis

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Spain and Sweden meet Tuesday (4 a.m. ET, Fox) in Auckland to decide who will advance to the Women’s World Cup final on Sunday in Sydney. In Gaming Today’s breakdown of Spain vs. Sweden predictions, odds, and props, we ask whether a veteran Swedish side can complete a remarkable run to the final, or whether the Spaniard’s roster full of Barcelona stars will reach the final for the first time in the history of Spanish women’s soccer.

Spain reached the semifinal by blowing out Switzerland in the Round of 16 and surviving the Netherlands in the quarters. After winning Group G, Sweden have won as the underdogs twice in knockout play. After downing USA on PKs in the Round of 16, Sweden upset Japan 2-1 last week.

Betting Odds for Tuesday’s Spain vs. Sweden World Cup Match

Here are Spain vs. Sweden betting lines available on top sports betting apps. The odds here reflect the three-way moneyline, where a bet on either team to win is a loss if the game is tied after 90 minutes. As of Sunday night, FanDuel offers the draw at +210.

Sweden vs Spain Odds SOCCER Odds

SOCCER · Tue (8/15) @ 4:00 am ET

Sweden at Spain
Eden Park, Auckland, NZ

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Spain Roster, Injuries, and Betting News

Anyone who guessed Spain’s goals against the Netherlands would once again come from Barcelona players was correct. This time, it was two players who had not scored during La Roja’s first four matches of the World Cup – Mariona Caldentey and 19-year-old Salma Paralluelo – who stepped up for Manager Jorge Vilda’s balanced side.

Salma Paralluelo and Spain are favored over Sweden, per WWC semifinal odds.
Spain’s Salma Paralluelo (AP Photo/John Cowpland)

With Caldentey (via PK) and Paralluelo (via a great individual effort on the counter for the game-winner in extra time) finding the net against the Netherlands, Spain’s 14 goals at this tournament have come from eight different players.

This team’s depth and ability to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities – it has posted an xG of at least 3.4 in four out of five matches – are the reasons it’s the favorite on Tuesday. Those qualities also made Spain one of the favorites – along with England and USA — of any team in the field before the World Cup kicked off.

One massive x-factor for Spain is Alexia Putellas, the two-time Ballon d’Or Feminin winner (’21 and ’22), who has come off the bench in three of Spain’s five matches, as she continues to recover from a knee injury she suffered last summer. It’s unclear whether Vilda has been saving her to start her in the semis (and possibly in the final as well) or whether she’s unable to start because she’s still not 100%. Whether she starts or comes off the bench, though, she gives Spain a massive weapon who can change the game, even in limited minutes. Vilda did not bring her on against the Netherlands until the 100th minute, but she was impactful in just 21 minutes of action.

Injuries

Spain do not quite have Putellas at 100%, but they are not missing any key players due to injury.

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Sweden Roster, Injuries, and Betting News

Sweden, despite entering this tournament as the No. 3 team in FIFA’s rankings, are entering the third straight match in which they’re clear betting underdogs. Skeptics – and/or American soccer fans — might call their Round of 16 win over USA lucky, as they needed a massive performance from keeper Zecira Musovic to survive. But Sweden were deserving winners against Japan, with goals in the 36th and 51st minute and advantages in shots (14 to 10) and shots on target (5 to 3) while splitting possession exactly 50-50.

Sweden have proven that they can score just enough to stay afloat thanks to a dominant backline (with help from Musovic) that has allowed just two goals in five matches. They haven’t scored much from open play, but they’ve been outstanding on set pieces, with center-back Amanda Ilestedt leading her team with four goals. Ilestedt has been particularly effective in the air on corners, and she found Sweden’s opener against Japan by pouncing on a loose ball on a scramble following a free kick.

Sweden’s biggest advantage over Spain, besides Musovic, is their players’ experience together in major tournaments after solid runs at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 and at last summer’s Women’s Euro. Spain, on the other hand, are in the World Cup semifinals for the first time.

There’s also a massive difference between Sweden’s cohesion under longtime manager Peter Gerhardsson and Spain’s highly publicized fraught relationship with the Spanish federation and Vilda. One other factor in Sweden’s favor is that Gerhardsson has been able to play virtually the same lineup in every meaningful World Cup game: 11 players have started at least four matches, as most of the starters played all but the meaningless group stage finale against Argentina.

Injuries

Injuries do not appear to be a factor for Gerhardsson’s side.

Spain vs. Sweden Props

Below is a sampling of betting props for Spain vs. Sweden:

Anytime Goalscorer (FanDuel)

  • Jenni Hermoso, Alexia Putellas: +200
  • Esther Gonzalez: +220
  • Alba Redondo: +230
  • Stina Blackstenius: 310
  • Salma Paralluelo: +400
  • Rebecka Blomqvist: +430

Correct Score (FanDuel)

  • Spain 1-0: +550
  • Spain 2-0: +850
  • Spain 2-1: +850
  • Sweden 1-0: +900
  • Sweden 2-0: +1900
  • Sweden 2-1: +1300
  • 0-0: +650
  • 1-1: +500

Total Goal Props (FanDuel)

  • Over 0.5 goals -1200, Under 0.5 goals: +550
  • Over 1.5 goals -250, Under 1.5 goals: +175
  • Over 2.5 goals +125, Under 2.5 goals: -175
  • Over 3.5 goals +350, Under 3.5 goals: -600

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Spain vs. Sweden Prediction: Spain 2, Sweden 1

We should know better than to pick against Sweden at this point, but their lack of open-play goals is concerning, especially against an opponent that will likely dominate possession. Spain had an issue finishing their chances against the Netherlands, and it nearly cost them, but their balance makes them the safe pick here.

Self-inflicted mistakes have hurt La Roja at times in this tournament, and of these teams, they look like the one that is more likely to suffer a breakdown at the wrong time. Over 90 minutes, though, I expect Spain to have a clear edge in scoring opportunities, and they’ll find a way to convert enough of them to advance to the final.

At minimum, anyone who hasn’t been convinced by what they’ve seen from Spain should consider Sweden Draw No Bet (Regular Time) (+160) or Double Chance Tie or Sweden (-135) on DraftKings).

Here are a few bets available at DraftKings that are worth checking out:

  • Both Teams To Score — Yes (+105)
  • Parlay: Both Teams To Score No Draw (+235)
  • Over 2.5 Goals (+145)

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Spain vs. Sweden Broadcast Info: Where to Watch

  • Date/Time: Tuesday, August 15, 4 a.m. ET
  • Location: Eden Park

Watch this match at one of the following:

  • Fox
  • Fubo
  • Sling Blue
  • Telemundo
  • Peacock Premium
About the Author
Tyler Everett

Tyler Everett

Writer
Tyler Everett has been a sports writer since joining the student newspaper at his alma mater, NC State, back in 2008. He's covered sports and sports business for a number of newspapers and websites, including the Denver Broncos, Charlotte Observer, High Press Soccer, and Sports Business Journal, where he currently works full-time.

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