Stanford vs. UCLA Odds, Trends, Picks: Slow-Paced Offenses Key to Late Night Pac-12 Pick

The Stanford Cardinal are coming off a massive upset over the Arizona Wildcats and will look to keep the momentum rolling as they head to Pauley Pavilion to take on the No. 4-ranked UCLA Bruins. This is not an eye-catching matchup, but we are here to break down the Stanford vs. UCLA odds, trends, and picks. 

UCLA has won four-straight games after their mini two-game losing streak to Arizona and USC, and they still sit at the top of the Pac-12 standings, leading Arizona by 1.5 games. On the other side, Stanford is seven games back of the Bruins in the Pac-12 standings. Although they are coming off a huge win, they have been inconsistent all season, and this could be a spot where all the momentum is crushed as they take on a top-five-ranked team for the second-straight game.

However, the Cardinal have proven that they can be competitive against some of the best teams in the country. Although they lost by 14 to the Bruins at home earlier in the season, this has all the makings of a competitive Pac-12 after-dark matchup, and we are here to give you the best Stanford vs. UCLA pick.

Stanford vs. UCLA Betting Odds: Spread, Total, Moneyline

No matter which side you take for Stanford vs. UCLA, we advise you to look at the top US sportsbooks‘ lines and odds for this matchup to ensure you get the best number possible. You can also scan each sportsbook’s welcome bonuses to give you a nice bankroll for tonight’s action and whatever you choose to bet on.

Here are the up-to-date lines and odds for Stanford vs. UCLA.

Stanford vs. UCLA Betting Trends

Stanford

• Stanford is 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in its last nine games
• The total has gone Over in 10 of Stanford’s last 15 games
• Stanford is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against UCLA
• Stanford is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against the Pac-12

UCLA

• UCLA is 20-0 straight up (SU) in its last 20 home games
• The total has gone Under in 11 of UCLA’s last 14 games
• UCLA is 14-1 SU in its last 15 home games against Stanford
• The total has gone Over in 11 of UCLA’s last 13 games against Stanford

Stanford Cardinal (11-14, 12-13 ATS)

Not only did Stanford knock off Arizona in its last game, but they did so by double-digits. Although this team cannot find any consistency, they have been a tough team to put away, and they are a little better than the numbers indicate.

On offense, the Cardinal is only putting up 69.2 points per game, and they are not a great shooting team. They are ranked 64th in KenPom‘s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating, and they play with one of the slowest tempos in the country, which means that they could be in an excellent spot to cover the large spread.

Their lack of length will hurt them on both ends in this matchup, but so will their lack of firepower on offense. While they are due for a positive uptick in offensive production, I fear that we just saw that against Arizona, and banking on them to replicate that performance in back-to-back games is foolish.

Offensively, Spencer Jones is the only player on the roster averaging double-digits in points per game, but they make up for their lack of talent with a deep rotation that allows them to keep fresh legs on the court at all times.

UCLA Bruins (21-4, 14-10-1 ATS)

The Bruins were able to right the ship after losing back-to-back games against USC and Arizona, winning four straight by an average of 11.25 points per game. Now, the four games came against the worst the Pac-12 has to offer, but sometimes you need to beat up on the little guys to build your confidence back up.

Although Stanford is not the “ultimate test” that UCLA is looking for, this is not a team they can take lightly. UCLA also plays at a slow tempo, meaning there will be fewer possessions for them to build a lead and cover the massive spread. However, the Bruins are ranked 24th in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating and second in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rating.

The offense can sometimes be a bit bland, especially at the free-throw line, as they rank 314th in made free throws per game and 329th in attempted free throws per game. If the Cardinal can keep pace with the Bruins and keep this game close, UCLA can hurt itself with end-of-game missed free throws that allow Stanford to cover the spread and win.

Luckily, their offense is loaded with star power, with Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jaylen Clark, Tyger Campbell, Amari Bailey, and David Singleton all averaging double-digits in points per game, meaning this team can find some juice on the offensive end of the court at any moment.

Stanford still needs to find a way to score on UCLA’s defense, which has been a struggle all season for most teams. The Bruins’ defense ranks sixth in scoring (59.8), 46th in effective field goal percentage (47.2%), 14th in opponents’ made field goals per game (21.7), and they force the 10th-most turnovers per game (16.8).

Stanford vs. UCLA Betting Pick

With two slow-paced offenses, this game can be a snoozefest, especially if Stanford cannot find a way to establish an offensive presence tonight.

Stanford’s biggest key to covering tonight is sticking to its offensive identity and overwhelming UCLA with its depth. However, this could also be the Cardinal’s downfall tonight, as UCLA has a similar identity on offense, and its defense is among the best in the country. Two slow-playing offenses will limit each team’s opportunity, and if Stanford cannot find any rhythm against UCLA’s defense, they will be put to sleep quickly.

Even though UCLA is a much better team on both sides, I feel uncomfortable taking either team on the spread. Instead, we will take the Under as these teams will continue to play their game and keep this one low-scoring.

Pick: Under 131 via DraftKings Sportsbook

How To Watch Stanford vs. UCLA

Date: Thursday, Feb. 16, 2023
Tipoff: 11 p.m. ET
Location: Pauley Pavilion – Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: ESPN2