The final AFC wilcard playoff game takes place Sunday night with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers at Arrowhead Stadium.
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger will look to extend his playing career with a win over the Chiefs. Oddsmakers opened at Kansas City -13, but it was a consensus -12.5 across the board including at PointsBet and DraftKings as of Wednesday morning.
NFL · Sun (1/16) @ 8:17pm ET
|Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri|
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1, 8-9 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-5, 8-9 ATS)
Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
Caesars Sportsbook Line: Chiefs -12.5 (46.5)
The skinny: K.C. begins its playoff quest to reach a third straight Super Bowl with a rematch against a Pittsburgh team it routed three weeks ago.
Facts: In the history of the wild-card era, dating to 1978, this is the biggest spread for any game.
Kansas City, 2-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite this year, was a 10-point choice when it beat Pittsburgh 36-10 at Arrowhead in Week 16 thanks in part to a +3 turnover edge, and a 41-27 advantage in average starting field position. It was K.C.’s best launch point this season and the worst in any game for Pittsburgh.
The Steelers are the first team in the past 15 seasons to finish last in rushing yards allowed per game (146.1) and reach the postseason or even have a winning record.
Analysis: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had three TD throws and no INTs vs. Pittsburgh, and his second best passer rating of the season at 135.1. His offensive line was the key, limiting the Steelers to four pressures and two sacks on 32 drop-backs. But Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt, who just tied the league mark for sacks in a season, was slowed by a rib injury.
He’s OK now, but star RB Najee Harris isn’t. Harris was slowed by an elbow injury early in the week. If he’s not a full-go, QB Ben Roethlisberger could be in for a long day. He’s averaged only 4.5 yards an attempt the past four games.
The Chiefs are hurting at RB, too, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire still iffy with a collarbone injury, and speedy WR Tyreek Hill is wrestling with a heel injury. But Mahomes will find a slew of other weapons.
Steelers at Chiefs Pick
Chiefs 34, Steelers 14
Last week: 5-8 ATS, 8-5 SU
Season total: 125-131 (.488) ATS, 159-99-1 (.617) SU