Steelers vs Bills Prediction, Odds, Best Bets: Buffalo Listed as Big Home Favorite

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The NFL playoffs are here, and we have a fantastic Wild Card Weekend ahead of us. In the AFC, the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills will host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, Jan. 14 at 1 p.m. ET. If you want to bet on the Wild Card odds, check out our Steelers vs. Bills odds, prediction, and best bets.

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Buffalo won the defacto AFC East championship games over the Miami Dolphins last week to lock up a home playoff game and the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh won three straight games and got some extra help to secure a postseason berth again.

The weather in Buffalo is looking brutal for kickoff. It is being reported as of Thursday morning that there will be sustained winds of 25 mph, with gusts up to 52 mph, and a temperature hovering around 20 degrees.

This can make finding a winner in the Steelers vs. Bills odds much more challenging. Luckily, we are here to help, as we have poured through the data and come up with the best Steelers vs. Bills picks.

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Steelers vs. Bills Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Before placing your AFC Wild Card bets, check out the Steelers vs. Bills odds from our top-rated sports betting apps. This will ensure you get the best odds and lines for your bets on the Steelers vs. Bills spread, moneyline, and total. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, 10-7 ATS)

Somehow, someway, the Pittsburgh Steelers have found themselves in the postseason. After winning three straight games to close out the season, the Steelers clinched their first double-digit win season since 2020 and are in the playoffs for the seventh time in the last 10 years. 

A mid-season losing streak almost derailed this team. However, Mason Rudolph took over the starting quarterback job, and they have not looked back since. On the season, Pittsburgh’s team stats are not that impressive.

They rank 28th in scoring (17.9), 22nd in yards per play (5.0), and 27th in touchdowns per game (1.8). In Rudolph’s three starts this season, the Steelers are putting up 27 points per game, which is more than they have scored in any game he did not start this year. 

Combined with a top-10-rated defense, the Rudolph-led Steelers may be one of the more dangerous teams in the playoffs. However, an injury to T.J. Watt is a massive blow, as he will miss the Wild Card matchup. Watt led the league in sacks (19), and in his career, the Steelers are 1-10 SU when he is OUT. 

Obviously, this defense is a different unit without Watt, and they will be taking on one of the NFL’s hottest teams. Luckily, the weather conditions are in their favor, as Pittsburgh loves to keep the ball on the ground. The Steelers rank ninth in rushes per game (28.6), and they have a running back room headlined by leading rusher Najee Harris and dual-threat Jaylen Warren.

The biggest problem is if Pittsburgh is in a negative game script. Rudolph has been great down the stretch, but we have multiple years of evidence that show he may be playing over his skis. In this weather, Rudolph should be due for some massive regression against one of the best secondaries in the league. 

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Buffalo Bills (11-6, 7-10 ATS)

The only team hotter entering the postseason than the Steelers are the Buffalo Bills. After a crushing defeat against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Bills fell to 6-6 and looked like they were done this season. Things worsened when the Chiefs pulled off a miracle late touchdown the following week. 

However, Kansas City was about an inch offside on that play, and Buffalo held on to win 20-17. Since the Chiefs game, Buffalo is 5-0, and they pulled off a clutch win over the Dolphins in an AFC East championship game to secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC. 

Buffalo is a great team, led by one of the best quarterbacks in the league: Josh Allen. While Allen is a turnover machine, he leads the sixth-highest-scoring offense in the league and is behind a great offensive line. 

Allen has accounted for 42 touchdowns, which includes 15 rushing. Since Buffalo changed at offensive coordinator, the Bills’ offense has moved the ball much better, and Allen has only thrown four interceptions, which is still a bit much. Still, when you have a ‘goofy-boy’ quarterback, you should expect goofy-boy things every now and then. 

Like Pittsburgh, the Bills are also dealing with some key injuries on defense. However, they played really well over the last three weeks, ranking in the top 10 in defensive EPA and allowing 19 points per game. Pittsburgh’s offense is not a real explosive threat, and Mother Nature is giving the Bills a boost, with high wind speed expected at game time. 

The defense is much stronger against the run, and with almost no threat of a downfield passing game, the Bills should be able to keep the Steelers’ offense from moving the ball downfield. 

Steelers vs. Bills Betting Trends

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Pittsburgh is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 games. 
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Pittsburgh’s last five games. 
  • Pittsburgh is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games against Buffalo. 

Buffalo Bills

  • Buffalo is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games. 
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of Buffalo’s last 10 games. 
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Buffalo’s last seven home games. 

Steelers vs. Bills Prediction: Betting Odds Favor Low-Scoring Game

Even without crazy weather, this game feels like it will be a rock-fight. The Bills have the better offense in this matchup, but Allen loves to turn the ball over, and they are very inconsistent at moving the ball downfield, as shown in the Week 18 game against Miami. 

Luckily, the Bills have been running the ball a lot more under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Buffalo ran 30.5 times per game during the season, ranking fifth in the league. But, under Brady, the Bills have 38 rushes per game. 

Part of that has to do with Allen’s mobility and the emergence of James Cook. In his first 13 games of the season, Cook averaged 12.5 carries per game. With Brady in charge of the offense, Cook is up to 18.5 carries and 83.3 yards per game. 

This game will come down to whichever team can run and stop the run. I would not expect much downfield passing, which massively favors the Bills. However, giving a team 10 points in a playoff matchup is just too much. Instead, we will ride with the under.

Steelers vs. Bills Prediction: Under

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Steelers vs. Bills Prop Bets

If you are looking for Wild Card prop bets, we have you covered. 

As mentioned above, we should expect a lot of running the football in this game. The wind speeds are going to drastically handicap both passing attacks. Buffalo is the much better team in this matchup, so they should dominate the time-of-possession battle. 

This favors Allen, Cook, and Najee Harris’ rushing props. Prop bettors should be cautious when looking at Stefon Diggs, George Pickens, or any other receiver prop bet. Below, we will list our two favorite props bets, with one coming from each team. 

More Wild Card Bets: Steelers vs. Bills Anytime TD Scorer Bets

Najee Harris Over Rushing Attempts

In three seasons in the NFL, Harris has gone over 1,000 yards rushing each year. This season, he put up a career-high 4.1 yards per rush while also having the least amount of carries per game.

However, he did not have to play in massive wind gusts all season, and Harris still averaged 15 rushes per game. Over the last three games, Harris has averaged 24 carries and 104 yards per game. This week will be much more difficult because it is the playoffs, and he faces a top-tier defense. 

The Steelers have almost no choice but to let Harris get his touches. Rudolph has been great down the stretch, but in these conditions, Mike Tomlin would probably rather not ask his quarterback to throw 30+ times. 

This leaves more opportunity for Harris to get more touches and to easily go over this number. 

Josh Allen Over Rushing Yards

Allen is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league. He finished fourth in rushing yards (524) and had 15 rushing touchdowns, which shows they will call his number in the red zone. Getting inside the 20 will be half the battle, but the Steelers’ defense ranks 21st in third down conversion rate and allow 4.3 yards per rush. 

Combine that with no Watt to deal with, and Buffalo should be able to move the ball efficiently. They do not need to reach the red zone to unlock Allen’s legs, as at some point, they will likely have to change it up from simply handing the ball off to Cook. 

He has exceeded this number in two straight games and six times this season. The Steelers have only allowed 234 rushing yards and zero touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, but again, without Watt, we should expect some regression at the line of scrimmage. 

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How To Watch Steelers vs. Bills

Date: Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET

Location: Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY

Where to Watch: CBS

About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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