Steelers vs. Colts Odds, Trends, Injuries, and Prediction: Pitt a Worthy Underdog on MNF

The Pittsburgh Steelers are scheduled to meet the Colts in Indianapolis on Monday night to close out Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season.

The Colts are listed as 2.5-point favorites across the sports betting market, an important half-point adjustment from the -3 on look-ahead lines a week-and-a-half ago. There is extra juice attached to the -2.5 on most oddsboards on Monday morning, however.  The total sits between 39 and 39.5

Let’s take a look at the latest odds as well as our Steelers vs. Colts prediction.

Week 12 MNF Betting Lines

Here are odds from top sportsbook apps on this Monday night AFC clash.

Steelers vs. Colts Trends

The Steelers have dominated this series dating to their first meeting in 1957, going 25-6 straight up, which includes a 5-0 mark in the postseason and the past seven games in the regular season.

This year, both teams appear destined to fall short of the playoffs, with the Colts at 4-6-1 (5-6 against the spread), and the Steelers (3-7 SU/4-5-1) headed to their first losing season since 2003. Every other team has had at least one sub-.500 year since 2012.

Indianapolis is operating for the third game under interim coach Jeff Saturday, who replaced the fired Frank Reich and promptly reinstituted veteran Matt Ryan at QB after the team took a two-game look at backup Sam Ehlinger.

Ehlinger generated only 121 yards of total offense in his final outing, a 26-3 loss vs. New England.

In coach Saturday’s debut, he guided the Colts to a win at Las Vegas two weeks ago, 25-20, but last Sunday missed out on upsetting Philadelphia as an 11-point underdog, blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in falling 17-16.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is working with the league’s worst-rated passer, rookie Kenny Pickett, who’s 34th on the chart — just behind five guys who have been benched this season. Pickett is the only QB who has thrown three INTs twice in a game in 2022.

But since Pickett is a first-year player, coach Mike Tomlin and his staff appear to be willing to work through the bad times.

Fun flashback fact: When these teams last met, in 2020, the Steelers rallied from a 24-7 deficit in the second half to win 28-24. In that game, the Steelers had only 22 rushing yards on 14 carries. The last time Pittsburgh had fewer ground yards and still won a game occurred in 1957 when it had 15 yards on 30 carries. That was in a 19-13 victory in the first meeting between the franchises in history.

Check ’em: All NFL teams’ Super Bowl 57 odds

Colts Injuries

On Monday, Pickett faces the league’s fourth-rated defense, which has thrived most of the year without star Shaq Leonard, a three-time first-team All-Pro linebacker, who’s out for the season after back surgery.

But adding to their injury woes is the recent rib injury to star LDT DeForest Buckner, to go along with the knee injury that’s kept LDE Kwity Paye out of the lineup the past two weeks. Both are listed as questionable.

Favorable Matchup for Matt Ryan?

Ryan goes against Pittsburgh’s 28th-ranked unit, but somehow the Steelers managed to intercept Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow six times in their two meetings. Burrow, sixth on the passer-rating chart, has thrown only two in his other eight outings.

As for Ryan, despite playing in only nine of the team’s 11 games, he is tied for third in the league with nine interceptions to go with 29 sacks, tied for fifth most.

Also read: MNF props and TD scorer bets

Steelers vs. Colts Analysis and Prediction

The return of LB T.J. Watt to the Steelers’ lineup two weeks ago after sitting out seven games with a knee injury is going to make Ryan’s day even more challenging.

In the seven games Watt missed, Pittsburgh totaled eight sacks. In the three he played in, the Steelers had 11. Watt teams with fellow linebacker Alex Highsmith (nine sacks) for a dynamic pass rush.

Considering the Colts yielded nine sacks to New England only three weeks ago, things could get ugly in Indy’s pass pocket. Especially with Colts OLT Bernhard Raimann having a rough rookie year.

Pittsburgh also has seen a revival of a nice running game, with second-year RB Najee Harris having 90 and 99 ground yards the past two weeks, averaging 4.7 a carry. In his previous eight games, he had a norm of 45.1 yards a game and a 3.3 average per carry.

The boost to the running game has helped protect Pickett, who hasn’t thrown an interception the past two games totaling 72 passes.

In terms of the total, if the number holds, this will be Pittsburgh’s third straight game with an over/under number below 40. Last week, though, the Bengals and Steelers combined for 67 in Cincinnati’s 37-30 victory, the most points in any of the 17 “under 40 games” through Week 11 this season.

Anyway …

Forecast: Steelers 21, Colts 16