Sugar Bowl Odds & Prediction: Take the Points on Alabama vs. Kansas State

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It was a down season for the Alabama Crimson Tide, and yet, they still find themselves in a New Year’s Six game as they will take on the Big 12 Champion Kansas State Wildcats in the 2022 Sugar Bowl.

This game was not expected to be as highly touted as it has come to be, but some players who were likely opting out as they gear towards the NFL Draft have decided to play. With both teams playing at full strength, the Sugar Bowl will serve as a nice appetizer for the College Football Playoff Semifinals later in the day.

We are here to give you everything you need to know about both teams, along with which side to pick as we take a look at Alabama vs. Kansas State odds for the 2022 Sugar Bowl.

Alabama vs. Kansas State Betting Lines: Point Spread, Total, Moneyline

If you are looking for the best Sugar Bowl odds and breakdown, here are the current lines from top US sportsbook apps for Alabama vs. Kansas State.

ALA Alabama vs KSU Kansas State Odds NCAAF Odds

NCAAF · Sat (12/31) @ 12:11pm ET

ALA Alabama at KSU Kansas State
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

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Alabama vs. Kansas State Betting News: Key Trends

Alabama 

  • Alabama is 1-5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games
  • Alabama is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Big 12
  • The total has gone Under in seven of Alabama’s 12 games this season
  • Alabama is 1-4 ATS away from home

Kansas State

  • Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in their last six games
  • Kansas State is 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the SEC
  • The total has gone Over in nine of Kansas State’s last 11 when playing as the underdog
  • The total has gone Under in seven of Kansas State’s 13 games this season

How to Watch Alabama vs. Kansas State

Date: Saturday, Dec. 31 | Kickoff: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Caesars Superdome: New Orleans, LA
Where to Watch: ESPN

Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2, 5-6-1 Against the Spread)

The Crimson Tide got some excellent news for their chances in this game as projected top-10 picks in the upcoming NFL Draft, Bryce Young and Will Anderson, have elected to play in the Sugar Bowl, and they are not expecting any major opt-outs. With this news, the line has shifted fairly drastically in Alabama’s favor as they are up to 6.5-point favorites in most sportsbooks, a three-point increase from earlier in the month.

However, Alabama had an uncharacteristic season as they lost twice in the regular season, something they have not done since 2019 and they struggled with most of the teams on their schedule. They escaped Texas with a one-point victory, struggled with Arkansas, and their games against Texas A&M and Ole Miss came down to the final play with Alabama staring down the barrel of another loss.

Sugar Bowl Odds & Prediction: Take the Points on Alabama vs. Kansas State
QB Bryce Young is featured in our Sugar Bowl odds & prediction: Alabama vs. Kansas State. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

Alabama is still putting up the numbers on both sides of the ball as their offense is ranked third in scoring (41.4), fifth in yards per rush (5.5), 11th in yards per play (6.6), and 12th in total yards per game (471.0). On the other side, their defense is ranked in the top 15 in scoring (19.6), yards per game (320.9), yards per play (4.4), and yards per pass (5.7).

The problem with this team comes in the skill room as no one separated themselves as “THE” guy in this offense outside of the quarterback. Alabama hit the portal hard after losing to Georgia in the National Championship game as they took WR Jermaine Burton from the Bulldogs and snagged one of the top transfer prospects in RB Jahmyr Gibbs from Georgia Tech. 

Although those two have given this team a little bit of experience, Burton only caught 37 passes for 590 yards and while Gibbs has been a very important weapon for Alabama this season, he has yet to blossom into a star running back. Defensively, Alabama has NFL talent on all three levels, but again, they took some swings in the portal with CB Eli Ricks from LSU, but it has not worked out, and he has barely seen the field. 

Kansas State Wildcats (10-3, 9-3-1 ATS)

Heading into the season, Kansas State was one of the trendier picks to win a wide-open Big 12, and wouldn’t you know it — they did just that. Even though they beat TCU in the Big 12 Championship to avenge their loss earlier in the season, the Horned Frogs will be the one representing the Big 12 in the playoffs. 

Kansas State picked up a massive transfer during the offseason when Adrian Martinez decided to come to town, and the pairing of him and star-running back Deuce Vaughn created a lethal backfield. The problem was they had trouble throwing the ball (which hurt them against Tulane), but when Will Howard took over the starting job after Martinez was knocked out of the first game against TCU, this offense completely flipped. 

Howard completed only 61.6% of his passes, but he averaged 8.7 Y/A and had 15 passing touchdowns to only two interceptions (three scores with his legs as well). It is clear that this team runs better under Howard, as was evident in the first TCU game when he was knocked out after Martinez got knocked out. Head coach Chris Klieman still utilizes Martinez in a wildcat-type role now that Howard is the starter, and the team has been operating at a high level since then, scoring 157 total points over their last four games. 

Sugar Bowl Prediction

With Alabama at full strength, it will be hard for this Kansas State defense to get some stops on this high-powered unit. There should be no problems moving the ball downfield as Alabama’s defense is prone to get gashed (i.e., Tennessee and LSU), but this game will come down to which defense gets the most stops. 

The Wildcats will not make it easy for the Crimson Tide, but as we have seen recently when you give Nick Saban a month to prepare, he will have his team ready to roll. However, Alabama just has not looked like the dominating force we have all come to know this season and against bowl teams this season, Alabama is 5-2, with three of those games being decided by one score. 

Alabama is undoubtedly the more talented team, which is usually the case against any team they face. Still, they are not blowing teams out, they have struggled with every team they faced with a pulse, and Kansas State has more to play for with supremacy in the Big 12 on the line. 

Pick: Kansas State +6.5 (-110); odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of sports betting since his days at The Ohio State University. His love of betting the over and chasing the hungry dogs led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB

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