It is easy to understand why a quarterback has the shortest Super Bowl 57 MVP odds. Quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP 31 times out of 56 Super Bowls, including six of the last 10. With the two quarterbacks in the big game this year — the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and Eagles’ Jalen Hurts — it would not be shocking to see one of them named Super Bowl 57 MVP.
However, if you want a value play, consider putting some money down on a defensive player or two.
Odds To Win MVP of Super Bowl 57: Quarterbacks Favored
Here are current Super Bowl MVP odds from these top sports betting apps:
It is not surprising that Mahomes and Hurts have the shortest odds. Not only are they quarterbacks, but they are two of the best in the league whose teams often win or lose depending on how well they play.
What About the Playmakers?
If the winning quarterback does not earn the award, then the next most likely candidate would be their primary offensive weapon. For Mahomes, that’s Travis Kelce, and for Hurts, that is A.J. Brown. However, Devonta Smith has big play capability, too. Since Mahomes tends to spread the ball around, Marquez Valdes-Scantling or JuJu Smith-Schuster could potentially have MVP-caliber games.
As for the running backs, Kansas City doesn’t try too hard to establish the run, which will make it hard for Isaiah Pacheco or Jerrick McKinnon. The Eagles have a solid run game, but they also use a committee approach.
Super Bowl MVP Odds: Why You Shouldn’t Overlook Defensive Players
Offensive players often win Super Bowl MVP because of the cumulative impact of their performance. Each of the last six quarterbacks to win the award accounted for multiple touchdowns in the game; four had 3+, and three also threw for 300+ yards.
As for the receivers and running backs who have won, they all had 10+ receptions, 100+ yards, and/or multiple touchdowns except for one (Super Bowl XI MVP Raiders wide receiver Fred Biletnikof, four receptions for 79 yards). They clearly played a pivotal role in the outcome of the game. It was not because of one or two big plays, but because of how well they played throughout.
However, when it comes to the defensive winners, the opposite is true. For the defensive winners, it was the impact a handful of big plays had:
- Super Bowl 5: Chuck Howley, Linebacker, Cowboys — two interceptions (only MVP to come from the losing team).
- Super Bowl 7: Jake Scott, Safety, Dolphins — two interceptions.
- Super Bowl 12: Harvey Martin, Randy White, Defensive Linemen, Cowboys — accounted for three sacks but were considered the leaders of a defense that forced eight turnovers.
- Super Bowl 20: Richard Dent, Linebacker, Bears — two sacks, two forced fumbles.
- Super Bowl 30: Larry Brown, Cornerback, Cowboys — two interceptions.
- Super Bowl 35: Ray Lewis, Linebacker, Ravens — five tackles, four passes defenses; more so because he was the leader of a dominant defense.
- Super Bowl 37: Dexter Jackson, Cornerback, Bucs — two interceptions, one pass defensed, one tackle.
- Super Bowl 48: Malcolm Smith, Linebacker, Seahawks — 10 tackles, a fumble recovery, interception return for a touchdown.
- Super Bowl 50: Von Miller, Linebacker, Broncos — Six tackles, 2.5 sacks, one pass defensed, one forced fumble.
Smith and Miller had a measurable impact throughout the game. But for the others, one or two big plays were enough. However, in most cases, the winning team’s defense dominated the game.
Defenses are rarely dominant because of one player. But since the award goes to a player, voters gravitate toward someone who made a couple of big plays. That, or whoever is considered the leader of the defense.
Super Bowl MVP Betting Analysis & Picks
Both offenses are explosive enough to have several players potentially have MVP-caliber performances. But in such a matchup, a couple of key plays by a defender could turn the tide of the game. Should those couple of plays come from the same player, he’d almost certainly be in the conversation for Super Bowl MVP.
No one will blame you if you go with one of the two quarterbacks. But if you are open to a bit of risk, give one or two defensive players some serious thought.
Our Pick: Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts
Dark Horse: Travis Kelce
Longshot: Chris Jones, Haason Reddick, Darius Slay, Trent McDuffie