Super Bowl Betting Line Movement: Move Toward Chiefs at Sharp Vegas Sportsbooks

The Super Bowl point spread has shifted toward the underdog Kansas City Chiefs at Circa Sports and the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, two of the most influential sportsbooks in the sports betting market, as both shops are dealing Eagles -1 as of Sunday morning. Since the spread settled Philadelphia -1.5, there had not been much Super Bowl betting line movement during early wagering.

Circa moved its Super Bowl line to Eagles -1 (-115)/Chiefs +1 (-103), and Westgate is dealing Eagles -1 (-120), Chiefs +1 (+100).

We’re still seeing Eagles -1.5 on most NFL oddsboards, but the adjustement at the Vegas shops could be a sign of a larger move to come toward the Chiefs.

Opening Super Bowl odds varied, with some sportsbooks — including the market-making Circa — installing KC as the favorite after the Chiefs’ win over the Bengals in AFC Championship Game on Jan. 29. But the market moved immediately toward Philly, and Eagles -2.5 became the prevailing line later that Sunday evening. Chiefs +2.5 and +2 were attractive numbers to early underdog bettors.

The total has been bet up to 51 at some books, including DraftKings and Caesars, with 50.5 available for Over bettors at BetMGM and FanDuel.  The Super Bowl total opened between 48.5 to 50 across the industry.

Current Super Bowl Betting Lines: Point Spread, Over/Under, Moneyline

Here are live odds from top sportsbook apps on Super Bowl 57 featuring Kansas City and Philadelphia.

Super Bowl Line Moves at Top Las Vegas Shops

In Las Vegas, most of the public money on Chiefs vs. Eagles started to flow in on Friday. Sharp money typically comes in early, and public money comes in late.

Circa Sports opened with Kansas City -2.5, but that line quickly flipped in favor of Philadelphia. Philly was bet as high as -2.5 at Circa, which is dealing Eagles -1.5 and a total of 51 as of Saturday.

“We are a significant loser to the Chiefs and a significant winner to the Eagles coming in (in terms of futures liability), so we are trying to mitigate that variance somewhat by taking more Eagles money,” Circa Risk Manager Chris Bennett said in a text to Gaming Today earlier this week.

The SuperBook opened Chiefs vs. Eagles as a pick ’em with a total of 48.5. SuperBook VP of Risk Management Jeff Sherman said things were “pretty stable” at Eagles -1.5 and 51 mid-week. The betting line remained the same early Saturday.

Despite the line shift toward the Eagles, the SuperBook “actually wrote Kansas City action” two Sundays ago, Sherman’s oddsmaking partner, Ed Salmons, told Gaming Today.

“We all thought if someone was gonna be favored, it would be Philly because of the injuries (the Chiefs suffered in the AFC title game). So that was our thinking. If someone was going towards Philly as the favorite, we wanted to get there.”

Sherman also noted in a text that the SuperBook took sharp money on the Over at 50 and 50.5.

The Under has cashed in the last four Super Bowls since Philadelphia’s 41-33 win over New England in 2018, but Over bettors have made their presence felt at sportsbooks in early wagering this year.

At DraftKings, the Over was garnering the majority of handle (56%) and bets (52%) this week.

More from the SuperBook: Super Bowl props released | Q&A with boss Jay Kornegay

Tight Line Has Mahomes in Rare Underdog Role

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has never been a postseason underdog in his NFL career. He lost for the first — and only time — as an underdog in Week 6 this season when the Bills beat the Chiefs, 24-20, with Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite on the road.

Overall, Mahomes is 7-1-1 as an underdog in regular season games for his career. But 71% of the handle and 69% of overall bets at DraftKings this week were on the Eagles and young QB Jalen Hurts. Mahomes (+120) has replaced Hurts (+125) as the betting favorite to become Super Bowl MVP.

For what it’s worth, given the different eras and level of competition, favorites are 28-26-2 in Super Bowl history. In Super Bowls that featured a closing line of less than a field goal, favorites are 5-2-1. The Under is 6-2 in those games.

Also check: How to Bet on Super Bowl 57 | Best Super Bowl Betting Promos| Record Super Bowl handle expected | DraftKings bettor fades Mahomes for chance at $220K  Super Bowl MVP Odds | Super Bowl squares | 2024 Super Bowl odds