Super Bowl LV: Patrick Mahomes Vs. Tom Brady

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Super Bowl LV will be headlined by the ageless wonder, Tom Brady — playing in his 10th Super Bowl — and the baby GOAT, Patrick Mahomes. The Kansas City Chiefs are looking to be the first team to repeat as champions since the 2003-2004 New England Patriots, which of course were led by Tom Brady.

Many are speculating that with a win, Patrick Mahomes can eclipse Tom Brady as the GOAT. But, as many have learned the hard way over the past two decades, betting against Tom Brady isn’t ideal.

Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady have faced off 4 times. Once in the playoffs and three times in the regular season. They are 2-2 against each other and only one of them will be able to walk out of the Super Bowl on top. Can Tom Brady truly solidify his spot as the GOAT with a win? Or, will Patrick Mahomes carve his name into NFL history by inching closer to the GOAT discussion with a win?

Tom Brady

One of the main reasons Brady chose to join Tampa Bay this past offseason was due to the amount of weaponry they had on the offensive side of the ball. In Brady’s last year with New England — and quite frankly, throughout his entire tenure with the Patriots — he lacked reliable deep threats. 

When he joined Tampa Bay, he knew he would have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at his disposal. Also, Ronald Jones in the backfield with Cameron Brate and OJ Howard as reliable safe options at the tight end position.

Then, along came his old friend Rob Gronkowski out of retirement. The Buccaneers also signed HB Leonard Fournette and later in the season, signed WR Antonio Brown. Tom Brady finished the 2020 regular season with 4,633 yards, 40 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. 

Not too many expected the 43-year old to enter this season and finish with 40 touchdowns and 4,000+ passing yards, despite his arsenal on offense. But then again, shouldn’t we be used to Brady breaking the mold of what to expect from a 43-year old quarterback?

Last year, the Buccaneers were a 7-9 football team. The main difference between last year and this year is Tom Brady. Brady instilled the New England culture of staying disciplined and focusing on the attention to detail on this Super Bowl run. 

On this 7 game win streak, Brady has thrown 19 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. It is also worth noting that he has been perfect in the red zone on the season; throwing 36 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. 

Patrick Mahomes

What can’t Patrick Mahomes do? We have seen this guy throw no-look passes, left-handed passes, underhand passes, overhand passes. You name it, he’s done it. Patrick Mahomes ended the 2020 regular season with 4,740 yards, 38 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. 

Throughout the course of this past season, Kansas City didn’t always have that explosive offense on display week after week. There were certain weeks where they tried establishing the run as that has been a weak spot for this team over the past three years. But, perhaps the biggest threat to any defense is the play calling for Kansas City.

Ever since Mahomes took over the starting position back in 2018, the Chiefs have been terrorizing opposing defenses. Main reason being that Andy Reid is perhaps the greatest play caller in NFL history. Not only is it hard to game plan for TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill. But, opposing defenses truly do not know what to expect from this offense.

The Chiefs are one of the rare teams that come out with different looks on offense week after week. Patrick Mahomes — in his early career — has only lost one playoff game. Which came to Tom Brady in the AFC Championship in 2018. He now has a chance to avenge that in the biggest game of his career.

After the Week 5 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, Mahomes and the Chiefs won 10 straight games. Throughout that 10 game winning streak, Mahomes threw for 25 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. 

If he didn’t get benched in Week 17 against the Los Angeles Chargers, there was a great chance that Mahomes finished the season throwing for over 5,000 yards. In the playoffs alone, Mahomes has looked flawless. Before the injury in the Divisional game and all throughout the AFC Conference Championship game, he looked unstoppable. Simply doing what he wants when he wants.

How These 2 QBs Will Fare Against Prop Bets

A popular prop bet will be passing yards. FanDuel currently has set the odds of most passing yards in favor of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is currently favored at -155 with Brady as the underdog at +120. Throughout the course of the postseason, Mahomes has been averaging more yards than Brady. Mahomes has been averaging 290.0 yards per game, compared to Brady’s 286.7 yards per game. 

There are also ample other betting opportunities between these two quarterbacks. Bettors will be able to bet on which quarterback throws the first pass or which quarterback will be sacked first. In fact, bettors will even be able to bet on how long the first touchdown pass will be. For example, according to FanDuel, the over/under of Mahomes’ first touchdown pass has been set at 13.5. The over/under for Brady’s first touchdown pass is set at 12.5. 

Another fun prop bet between these two quarterbacks is the 400+ yards bet. This may become one of the more popular bets as many are speculating this game will be a shootout. If that were to be the case, then one quarterback for sure will eclipse the 400-yard passing mark. 

Perhaps the most profitable prop bet between these two quarterbacks is the odds set for a 6+ touchdown game. If one bets yes, the odds are set +1000, so if the quarterback you bet does indeed throw for 6 touchdown passes, you’re looking at a nice profit.

For all new bettors looking to make a buck on this game, FanDuel Sportsbook is currently offering a 55/1 odds boost. Essentially this means, if you bet $5, you have a chance at walking away with $275. 

About the Author

Jake Luppino

Based in New Jersey, Jake is an avid sports fan with a deep love for the NFL & NBA. He is passionate about analyzing football and enjoys helping others make money!

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