It’s easy to cheer for and justify betting on the Super Bowl 58 odds of the top teams in the NFL. They are usually good for one season to the next. But cheering for and betting on struggling teams? It can be hard to justify putting money on the Super Bowl odds of them. However, there are four teams that have struggled in recent years bettors should give some serious thought.
The odds are still long on these teams, but with the improvement they showed last season and their offseason moves to date, their odds of winning Super Bowl 58 are gaining value.
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Super Bowl Odds 2024
Let’s take a look at Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams as of Mar. 20:
|Team||DraftKings||BetMGM: Promo Code TODAY||BetRivers||Caesars: Promo Code TODAYFULL|
It should come as no surprise who the teams at the top of oddsboards are—the defending champs, the Bills, 49ers, Eagles, and Bengals. But the odds have not changed much for those teams since they opened. If history is any indication, their odds will not change much throughout the offseason.
But the odds for the rest of the league are more likely to shift during the offseason. It depends on whether they make the necessary moves to improve the roster and overall outlook of the team. Of course, the longer their odds are, the easier it is for significant change to occur.
Let’s take a look at three teams with a lengthy history of losing seasons that showed significant improvement last season and have been making all the right moves during the offseason. Consequently, their odds have gotten shorter (odds via DraftKings):
- Opened: +3000
- As of Mar. 20: +2800
- Last season with a winning record: 2022 (9-8; lost 10+ games in the previous four seasons)
Things were looking up for the Jaguars when they made it to the AFC title game in 2017, but the franchise quickly became one of the worst teams in the NFL. But after winning just 15 games in four seasons, they won the AFC South with a 9-8 record and gave the Chiefs a serious run for their money in the Divisional round of the playoffs.
The way they finished the 2022 season is reason enough to believe the Jags could make the jump and become contenders next season. Free agent losses have been minimal; for once, they are not big spenders in free agency. Their most significant move was putting the franchise tag on tight end Evan Engram.
But the most impactful move was the suspension getting lifted for Calvin Ridley. With him, Christian Kirk, and Engram catching passes and Travis Etienne in the backfield, Trevor Lawrence may have one of the best skill position groups in the NFL. If Trevor Lawrence can continue to improve his game, the Jags could make some noise in 2023.
- Opened: +3000
- As of Mar. 20: +2500
- Last season with a winning record: 2022 (9-8; lost 10+ games in previous four seasons)
Hard Knocks and head coach Dan Campbell helped make the Lions a popular bet last season. It was hard not to cheer for them last season. But after watching them start the season 1-6, it began to look like it was the same old Lions. Then they finished the season, winning eight of their last ten games, including wins over the Jets, Giants, Vikings, and Packers (2X).
Losing Jamaal Williams in free agency stings, but the Lions did pick up David Montgomery. Signing Cam Sutton and C.J. Gardner-Johnson in free agency will make an improving defense even better. If Jared Goff doesn’t take a step back and they find him a weapon or two in the draft, the Lions could make another jump next season.
While it may be hard to see them winning the Super Bowl because of their history, there is undoubtedly value in betting on them at their current odds.
New York Jets
- Opened: +2500
- As of Mar. 20: +1400
- Last season with a winning record: 2015 (34-80 in the last seven seasons)
As bad as the Jets were in Robert Saleh’s first season as head coach, little was expected of them in 2022. But despite issues at quarterback, they were competitive in almost every game. While they finished the season with a losing record (7-10) for the seventh straight season, the team entered the offseason with nothing but optimism.
All they needed was a quarterback, and they might get one. Aaron Rodgers has stated his desire to play for the Jets in 2023, but the Packers and Jets have yet to make a trade happen, which is a bad sign for Jets fans. The trade speculation was enough for bettors to start putting money on the Jet; hence their odds moved from +2500 to +1400.
But what if the trade doesn’t happen?
Green Bay doesn’t want his contract on the books, so they may eventually cave. But it would not be shocking if Rodgers changed course and decided to retire because he gets tired of waiting for something to happen.
- Opened: +8000
- As of Mar. 20: +5000
- Last season with a winning record: 2018 (have had two seasons with a winning record since playing in the 2010 NFC title game)
There was little to be excited about in Chicago last season. The offense ranked No. 28 in total yards and No. 23 in points, and the defense wasn’t any better (No. 29 in total yards allowed, last in points allowed). But they had one thing going for them—Justin Fields.
Fields morphed into one of the most electric players in the league. However, he didn’t have much help. But the team appears determined to rectify that in the offseason. They spent a lot in free agency to beef up the offensive line and the defense, added some weapons, and traded the No. 1 pick to the Panthers for a boatload of picks and wide receiver D.J. Moore.
Talent is on the roster now, and more will get added via the draft. The Bears will be a better team in 2023. Will they be good enough to win the Super Bowl? The Eagles had +6000 odds to win Super Bowl 52….
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If you have not bet on the Jets already, wait. At +1400, they certainly have value, but as long as the status of Aaron Rodgers is in limbo, they are not a recommended bet. While Rodgers has stated he wants to play for the Jets, that does not mean he will. It would be foolish for the Jets and Packers not to figure out an acceptable trade.
But teams do not always make sensible decisions. If the Jets do not acquire him, their odds will skyrocket. However, if they do, when you consider the teams ahead of them on betting boards, their odds might not shift once Rodgers becomes a Jet.
It may still be a stretch to consider the Lions Super Bowl contenders, but they can certainly take the division next year. If a few things go their way, maybe they will make a run at the Super Bowl.
As for the Jags, adding Calvin Ridley to the offense could be a game-changer. If he can pick up where he left off and Trevor Lawrence continues to improve, they could surprise a lot of people in 2023. But the Bears are a long shot. The roster looks promising, but even the most talent-packed roster fails because they never gel.
If the Bears can gel, they may make history.
Super Bowl 24 Odds: Longshots
If you want to put money down on someone now, look for long shots. After all, three of the last eight Super Bowl winners opened with long odds, +2000 (Rams, Super Bowl 56) and +6000 odds (Buccaneers, Super Bowl 55); Eagles, Super Bowl 52):
Washington Commanders, +8000 (Caesars)
It may seem crazy to back betting on the Commanders, but there is a lot of value in Washington at their current odds. Their defense was one of the better ones in the NFL last year, but the offense struggled. Enter new starting quarterback Sam Howell and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy.
Howell had a solid preseason last year, so there is reason to hope his game will translate well to Sundays. If it can, he has one of the best offensive minds in the league to work with in Eric Bieniemy. Bieniemy will not have the same kind of talent with the Commanders that he had in Kansas City.
But Washington has plenty of talented weapons on offense.
Minnesota Vikings, +4500 (DraftKings)
The offense was one of the better ones in the league last year despite Dalvin Cook’s struggles. Their defense, however, did not do its part. If Brian Flores can overhaul the roster and get the Vikings defense on track, Minnesota could make a run in 2023.
Denver Broncos, +4000 (Caesars)
If Sean Payton can work his magic on Russell Wilson and the offense, with their defense, the Broncos will certainly be in the conversation for Super Bowl 58, but that’s a pretty big “if.”
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Super Bowl Odds: History
Opening odds (posted in January/February) for the last seven Super Bowl winners were as follows (odds via SportsOddsHistory.com):
- Super Bowl 57: Chiefs +750
- Super Bowl 56: Rams, +2000
- Super Bowl 55: Buccaneers, +6000
- Super Bowl 54: Chiefs, +700
- Super Bowl 53: Patriots, +500
- Super Bowl 52: Eagles, +6000
- Super Bowl 51: Pats, +800
- Super Bowl 50: Broncos, +800
The Rams were coming off a 10-6 regular season record the year before, but their odds got shorter after the news broke that they were trading for Matthew Stafford. With Jameis Winston at QB, the outlook was not favorable for the Buccaneers, but their odds got significantly shorter once they acquired Tom Brady.
Following a 7-9 season with a rookie (Carson Wentz) at quarterback (2016), no one expected much of the Philadelphia Eagles. Their odds didn’t drop below +1000 until after they got off to a 5-1 start in 2017.
It is also worth noting that the Patriots were the only Super Bowl winners in the last seven that opened as the betting favorite.
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Where to Bet On Super Bowl Odds in 2024
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