Fortune favors the brave, and recent Super Bowl odds history sides with betting on the underdog and Under.
With the Chiefs and Eagles set to meet in Super Bowl 57 on Feb. 12 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, let’s examine some recent betting trends for the Big Game.
Sunday night’s opening line varied on NFL oddsboards, with some sportsbooks posting the Chiefs as the favorite, and others installing the Eagles as the chalk (the SuperBook in Las Vegas went pick ’em). But the market immediately moved toward Philadelphia, and the line shifted to as high as Philadelphia -2.5, before settling between -1.5 and -2.
The total is 49.5 throughout the sports betting marketplace as of Tuesday.
Underdogs have covered the point spread in the past two Super Bowls. Despite losing to the Rams, 23-20, the Bengals covered ATS in Super Bowl 56 as 4.5-point dogs. In Super Bowl 55, the underdog Buccaneers (+3.5) blew out the Chiefs, 31-9.
The Chiefs were actually the last favorite to cover in the Super Bowl. They beat the 49ers, 31-21, as -1.5 chalk in Super Bowl 54.
The last four Super Bowls have all stayed Under the total. The last time we witnessed an Over? It was the Eagles outlasting the Patriots, 41-33, five years ago in Super Bowl 52.
Super Bowl Betting History: ATS and Over/Under Results
Here’s a comprehensive list of odds and betting results for every Super Bowl that’s been played to date.
Super Bowl Teams Winner/Final Score
57 Chiefs-Eagles Chiefs 38-35
56 Rams-Bengals Rams 23-20
55 Chiefs-Bucs Buccaneers 31-9
54 Chiefs-49ers Chiefs 31-21
53 Rams-Patriots Patriots 13-3
52 Patriots-Eagles Eagles 41-33
51 Falcons-Patriots Patriots 34-28
50 Broncos-Panthers Broncos 24-10
49 Seahawks-Patriots Patriots 28-24
48 Broncos-Seahawks Seahawks 43-8
47 49ers-Ravens Ravens 34-31
46 Patriots-Giants Giants 21-17
45 Packers-Steelers Packers 31-25
44 Colts-Saints Saints 31-17
43 Cardinals-Steelers Steelers 27-23
42 Patriots-Giants Giants 17-14
41 Bears-Colts Colts 29-17
40 Steelers-Seahawks Steelers 21-10
39 Eagles-Patriots Patriots 24-21
38 Patriots-Panthers Patriots 32-29
37 Buccaneers-Raiders Buccaneers 48-21
36 Patriots-Rams Patriots 20-17
35 Giants-Ravens Ravens 34-7
34 Titans-Rams Rams 23-16
33 Falcons-Broncos Broncos 34-19
32 Broncos-Packers Broncos 31-24
31 Packers-Patriots Packers 35-21
30 Steelers-Cowboys Cowboys 27-17
29 49ers-Chargers 49ers 49-26
28 Bills-Cowboys Cowboys 30-13
27 Bills-Cowboys Cowboys 52-17
26 Bills-Redskins Redskins 37-24
25 Giants-Bills Giants 20-19
24 Broncos-49ers 49ers 55-10
23 49ers-Bengals 49ers 20-16
22 Broncos-Redskins Redskins 42-10
21 Giants-Broncos Giants 39-20
20 Patriots-Bears Bears 46-10
19 49ers-Dolphins 49ers 38-16
18 Raiders-Redskins Raiders 38-9
17 Redskins-Dolphins Redskins 27-17
16 Bengals-49ers 49ers 26-21
15 Eagles-Raiders Raiders 27-10
14 Steelers-Rams Steelers 31-19
13 Cowboys-Steelers Steelers 35-31
12 Broncos-Cowboys Cowboys 27-10
11 Vikings-Raiders Raiders 34-14
10 Steelers-Cowboys Steelers 21-17
9 Vikings-Steelers Steelers 16-6
8 Dolphins-Vikings Dolphins 24-7
7 Redskins-Dolphins Dolphins 14-7
6 Dolphins-Cowboys Cowboys 24-3
5 Cowboys-Colts Colts 16-13
4 Chiefs-Vikings Chiefs 23-7
3 Jets-Colts Jets 16-7
2 Raiders-Packers Packers 33-14
1 Packers-Chiefs Packers 35-10
Recent Super Bowl Trends for Chiefs & Eagles
In their high-scoring Super Bowl 52 win over the Patriots, the Eagles entered the game as 4.5-point underdogs. That was the same number the Rams spotted the Bengals last year. If this year’s spread remains at 2.5 or lower, it will mark the ninth time in Super Bowl history with a spread of less than a field goal.
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is 1-2 overall and 2-1 ATS in his three Super Bowl appearances, and the first came with Philadelphia. In 2005, the Patriots defeated the Eagles, 24-21. Philly did cover as a 7-point underdog.
The Reid-led Chiefs then competed in back-to-back Super Bowls with two very different results. KC was favored against both San Francisco (31-21 win) and New England (31-9 loss). So, the moral of Reid’s coaching story seems to be, just don’t play against the Pats with a Super Bowl title on the line.
Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni is making his first appearance in a Super Bowl, but Sirianni has done something Reid failed to do. He led the Eagles to winning seasons in his first two years as head coach.
Overall Super Bowl Betting Trends
Favorites are 28-26-2 in the 56 Super Bowls that have been played so far. A closer look reveals that many successful bets on favorites came early in Super Bowl history. The betting favorite covered in 11 of the first 14 — and 15 of the first 21 — Super Bowls. Underdogs later dominated Super Bowl 36 through Super Bowl 48 during a 10-3 ATS run.
Super Bowl odds history also tells us that betting results are even closer for the total. The Under has a slim 28-27 advantage after the past four Super Bowls have finished below the total. There was no total posted for Super Bowl 1.
You always need to be mindful of sample size and different eras of competition. Just as favorites dominated in the early years of the Super Bowl, so too did the Under bet. The Under went 7-1 during the first eight Super Bowls when a total was posted.
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