Fortune favors the brave, and recent Super Bowl odds history sides with betting on the underdog and Under.
With the Chiefs and Eagles set to meet in Super Bowl 57 on Feb. 12 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, let’s examine some recent betting trends for the Big Game.
Sunday night’s opening line varied on NFL oddsboards, with some sportsbooks posting the Chiefs as the favorite, and others installing the Eagles as the chalk (the SuperBook in Las Vegas went pick ’em). But the market immediately moved toward Philadelphia, and the line shifted to as high as Philadelphia -2.5, before settling between -1.5 and -2.
The total is 49.5 throughout the sports betting marketplace as of Tuesday.
Underdogs have covered the point spread in the past two Super Bowls. Despite losing to the Rams, 23-20, the Bengals covered ATS in Super Bowl 56 as 4.5-point dogs. In Super Bowl 55, the underdog Buccaneers (+3.5) blew out the Chiefs, 31-9.
The Chiefs were actually the last favorite to cover in the Super Bowl. They beat the 49ers, 31-21, as -1.5 chalk in Super Bowl 54.
The last four Super Bowls have all stayed Under the total. The last time we witnessed an Over? It was the Eagles outlasting the Patriots, 41-33, five years ago in Super Bowl 52.
Super Bowl Betting History: ATS and Over/Under Results
Here’s a comprehensive list of odds and betting results for every Super Bowl that’s been played to date.
Super Bowl Teams Spread Total Winner/Final Score ATS Cover Over/Under
56 Rams-Bengals Rams -4.5 48.5 Rams 23-20 Bengals Under
55 Chiefs-Bucs Chiefs -3.5 56.5 Buccaneers 31-9 Buccaneers Under
54 Chiefs-49ers Chiefs -1.5 53.5 Chiefs 31-21 Chiefs Under
53 Rams-Patriots Patriots -3 55.5 Patriots 13-3 Patriots Under
52 Patriots-Eagles Patriots -4.5 49 Eagles 41-33 Eagles Over
51 Falcons-Patriots Patriots -3 57.5 Patriots 34-28 Patriots Over
50 Broncos-Panthers Panthers -4.5 43 Broncos 24-10 Broncos Under
49 Seahawks-Patriots Seahawks -1 47.5 Patriots 28-24 Patriots Over
48 Broncos-Seahawks Broncos -2 47.5 Seahawks 43-8 Seahawks Over
47 49ers-Ravens 49ers -4.5 48 Ravens 34-31 Ravens Over
46 Patriots-Giants Patriots -2.5 53 Giants 21-17 Giants Under
45 Packers-Steelers Packers -3 45 Packers 31-25 Packers Over
44 Colts-Saints Colts -5 57 Saints 31-17 Saints Under
43 Cardinals-Steelers Steelers -7 46 Steelers 27-23 Cardinals Over
42 Patriots-Giants Patriots -12 55 Giants 17-14 Giants Under
41 Bears-Colts Colts -7 47 Colts 29-17 Colts Under
40 Steelers-Seahawks Steelers -4 47 Steelers 21-10 Steelers Under
39 Eagles-Patriots Patriots -7 46.5 Patriots 24-21 Eagles Under
38 Patriots-Panthers Patriots -7 46.5 Patriots 32-29 Panthers Over
37 Buccaneers-Raiders Raiders -4 44 Buccaneers 48-21 Buccaneers Over
36 Patriots-Rams Rams -14 53 Patriots 20-17 Patriots Under
35 Giants-Ravens Ravens -3 33 Ravens 34-7 Ravens Over
34 Titans-Rams Rams -7 45 Rams 23-16 Push Under
33 Falcons-Broncos Broncos -7.5 52.5 Broncos 34-19 Broncos Over
32 Broncos-Packers Packers -10.5 49 Broncos 31-24 Broncos Over
31 Packers-Patriots Packers -14 49 Packers 35-21 Push Over
30 Steelers-Cowboys Cowboys -13.5 51 Cowboys 27-17 Steelers Under
29 49ers-Chargers 49ers -18.5 53.5 49ers 49-26 49ers Over
28 Bills-Cowboys Cowboys -11 50.5 Cowboys 30-13 Cowboys Under
27 Bills-Cowboys Cowboys -6.5 44.5 Cowboys 52-17 Cowboys Over
26 Bills-Redskins Redskins -7 49 Redskins 37-24 Redskins Over
25 Giants-Bills Bills -7 40.5 Giants 20-19 Giants Under
24 Broncos-49ers 49ers -12.5 48 49ers 55-10 49ers Over
23 49ers-Bengals 49ers -7 48 49ers 20-16 Bengals Under
22 Broncos-Redskins Broncos -3 47 Redskins 42-10 Redskins Over
21 Giants-Broncos Giants -9.5 40 Giants 39-20 Giants Over
20 Patriots-Bears Bears -10 37.5 Bears 46-10 Bears Over
19 49ers-Dolphins 49ers -3.5 53.5 49ers 38-16 49ers Over
18 Raiders-Redskins Redskins -3 48 Raiders 38-9 Raiders Under
17 Redskins-Dolphins Dolphins -3 36.5 Redskins 27-17 Redskins Over
16 Bengals-49ers 49ers -1 48 49ers 26-21 49ers Under
15 Eagles-Raiders Eagles -3 37.5 Raiders 27-10 Raiders Under
14 Steelers-Rams Steelers -10.5 36 Steelers 31-19 Steelers Over
13 Cowboys-Steelers Steelers -3.5 37 Steelers 35-31 Steelers Over
12 Broncos-Cowboys Cowboys -6 39 Cowboys 27-10 Cowboys Under
11 Vikings-Raiders Raiders -4 38 Raiders 34-14 Raiders Over
10 Steelers-Cowboys Steelers -7 36 Steelers 21-17 Cowboys Over
9 Vikings-Steelers Steelers -3 33 Steelers 16-6 Steelers Under
8 Dolphins-Vikings Dolphins -6.5 33 Dolphins 24-7 Dolphins Under
7 Redskins-Dolphins Dolphins -1 33 Dolphins 14-7 Dolphins Under
6 Dolphins-Cowboys Cowboys -6 34 Cowboys 24-3 Cowboys Under
5 Cowboys-Colts Colts -2.5 36 Colts 16-13 Colts Under
4 Chiefs-Vikings Vikings -12 39 Chiefs 23-7 Chiefs Under
3 Jets-Colts Colts -18 40 Jets 16-7 Jets Under
2 Raiders-Packers Packers -13.5 43 Packers 33-14 Packers Over
1 Packers-Chiefs Packers -14 N/A Packers 35-10 Packers N/A
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Recent Super Bowl Trends for Chiefs & Eagles
In their high-scoring Super Bowl 52 win over the Patriots, the Eagles entered the game as 4.5-point underdogs. That was the same number the Rams spotted the Bengals last year. If this year’s spread remains at 2.5 or lower, it will mark the ninth time in Super Bowl history with a spread of less than a field goal.
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is 1-2 overall and 2-1 ATS in his three Super Bowl appearances, and the first came with Philadelphia. In 2005, the Patriots defeated the Eagles, 24-21. Philly did cover as a 7-point underdog.
The Reid-led Chiefs then competed in back-to-back Super Bowls with two very different results. KC was favored against both San Francisco (31-21 win) and New England (31-9 loss). So, the moral of Reid’s coaching story seems to be, just don’t play against the Pats with a Super Bowl title on the line.
Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni is making his first appearance in a Super Bowl, but Sirianni has done something Reid failed to do. He led the Eagles to winning seasons in his first two years as head coach.
Also read: Super Bowl 57 odds early movement | Super Bowl MVP odds – Don’t sleep on defenders | 2024 Super Bowl odds
Overall Super Bowl Betting Trends
Favorites are 28-26-2 in the 56 Super Bowls that have been played so far. A closer look reveals that many successful bets on favorites came early in Super Bowl history. The betting favorite covered in 11 of the first 14 — and 15 of the first 21 — Super Bowls. Underdogs later dominated Super Bowl 36 through Super Bowl 48 during a 10-3 ATS run.
Super Bowl odds history also tells us that betting results are even closer for the total. The Under has a slim 28-27 advantage after the past four Super Bowls have finished below the total. There was no total posted for Super Bowl 1.
You always need to be mindful of sample size and different eras of competition. Just as favorites dominated in the early years of the Super Bowl, so too did the Under bet. The Under went 7-1 during the first eight Super Bowls when a total was posted.
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