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From the time we knew who would be playing in the Super Bowl, I’ve always had a lean on the Patriots to win, but couldn’t put my finger on by how much and how it relates to the total.

My final thought process has this game not being as close as I once thought. We’ve been treated to some very competitive Super Bowls over the last few years and I think we’re due for a good old fashioned butt-kicking.

The Patriots will be the ones doing the kicking.

As great as the Giants have been on their march to the Super Bowl, which was essentially a five game playoff run including their final regular season games, I still can’t get their bad losses out of my head.

This is a team that twice lost to the Redskins, the last of which almost cost them a playoff spot. This is a team that lost four games in a row, including a 49-24 pounding at New Orleans in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score might indicate.

And then we have Eli Manning who has been sensational during their five game winning streak, but a zebra can’t change his stripes. When he’s bad, he’s really bad. He only had 16 interceptions this season, but threw 25 last season.

Although the Patriots defense hasn’t been known for being strong, I have a feeling they’re going to do some things to take Eli’s focus off and get him pressing which will create some easy turnovers and scoring opportunities for the Patriots.

Because of my thinking, I have also bet quite a few props that fall under that scenario.

In addition to laying -2½ on the Patriots, I also have laid -7½ with the Patriots at +195 and laid -10½ at +290. The total has been dropping and when it reaches the lowest point, I will bet it OVER.

Predicted score: Patriots, 38-20

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