Super Bowl Props Betting Report: DraftKings Bettor Fades Mahomes for Chance at $220K

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Prop till you drop.

Super Bowl bettors become increasingly slick about prop wagers, long considered a fun sideshow to the Big Game. Tongue-in-cheek hilarious Super Bowl props like the time of the national anthem are joined by serious bets to leverage specific angles.

These wagers have become so prominent that some sportsbooks report more prop action than traditional wagering prior to the onset of big weekend spread bets.

Here’s an overview of early Super Bowl props betting action at major sportsbooks.

DraftKings Super Bowl Props: Fading Mahomes

One bettor believes the Eagles defense is going to shut down Patrick Mahomes. The player placed a $2,000 bet on Mahomes Exact Pass Completions to be 12 or Less. The bet has +11000 odds and would pay out $222,000.

The major investment against the prolific Mahomes has one likely belief.

“It’s the feeling that he’s going to get hurt,” Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told Gaming Today. “Mahomes can throw 12 completions in his sleep.”

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes
A DraftKings bettor looks for a big score by going against Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl prop bets (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Mahomes has battled a nagging high-ankle sprain sustained in the Divisional round against the Jaguars, although he’s had two weeks off between games to get healthier. If he is forced to scramble too much or lands on it wrong, Mahomes could have trouble reaching that total. The wager is, at its core, a medical hunch about whether he’ll aggravate the injury.

“Anything that can happen in a football game has a prop,” Avello said as DraftKings closes in on 1,000 Super Bowl props, its highest ever.

“Some of that stuff doesn’t happen too often, maybe once every 15 times or so, but bettors will be attracted to something that pays +1000 or +1200, thinking they could bet $20 and get $240 bucks or maybe hit a big parlay and make $20,000.”

Correlated Plays

One significant prop-betting path is to extend one’s view of the game into individual statistics. It’s a game within the game. If the bettor has the right direction of the game, prop hits could follow.

“This reminds me of the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2009 Super Bowl,” recalled Avello, who was running the book at the Wynn at the time.

“I had one bettor putting $25,000 apiece on individual props. He loved all the Cardinals players in that game. He loved the passing yards Over, the pass attempts and the rushing yards Over. He went all one way on it. I think he played 25 props, and he hit about 90% of them to make a big score (in the Cardinals’ 27-23 loss).

“If you have a correlation between the right players and how you think the game is going to go, you can make a lot of money if you are right,” he added.

Another longshot wager for Sunday’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles includes $900 on any offensive lineman to score a receiving touchdown at +3500 to get $32,400. Think tackle eligible, a play-action fake, and a toss to a wide-open lineman in the end zone

One other notable DraftKings wager is more conventional on this game. It’s $59,200 on the Eagles moneyline (-125) to gain a payout of $106,560.

Here’s a deeper look at DraftKings props getting traction.

Touchdown Scorers: First, Anytime

  • Jalen Hurts +700 first, +115 anytime
  • Miles Sanders +700, +100
  • Travis Kelce +700, -135
  • Isaiah Pacheco +800 -135
  • A.J. Brown +1000, +115
  • Dallas Goedert +1200, +140
  • Jerick McKinnon +1200, +190
  • DeVonta Smith +1300, +155
  • Marquez Valdes-Scanting +1600, +215
  • Kadarius Toney +1700, +250

Novelty Super Bowl Props at DraftKings

Here are some other fun ways to play the Super Bowl:

  • Any punt or kickoff return for a touchdown is +140.
  • Will there be a walk-off game-winning field goal in regulation? That’s +1000, up from +750 last week. Tricky, because if that kick sails through the uprights with one second to go, this loses.
  • Any player to have a reception of 55 yards or better is +250
  • A field goal of 60 or more yards is + 900. Both kickers have done it. This is a last play of the half or of the game consideration
  • Any quarterback to score a touchdown is +3000, kind of a mandatory prop with Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Nick Foles became the first QB to score a Super Bowl touchdown in the 2018 game for Philadelphia.

Longest Reception

  • A.J. Brown +225
  • Kelce +350
  • Smith +350
  • Valdes-Scantling +1000
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster +1600

Philadelphia bettors keep waiting for Quez Watkins to grab the big one. He is Philadelphia’s best deep threat, but they rarely target him. He’s nonetheless capable and +2800.

DraftKings also has DK Squares, in which gamblers can wager on the final digit of each team’s score at the end of any quarter.
Odds range from +320 (Eagles 0, Chiefs 0) to +7000 (Eagles 5, Chefs 5).

For anyone who has never played, a 10-0 score at the end of any quarter is a 0-0. As is 20-10, 30-20, etc.

Play Along: How to Create Your Own Super Bowl Squares Game | Set Up Your Super Bowl Squares Here

DraftKings in Good Shape Regarding Liability

Avello said the book had been most exposed in the Futures market on the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals. With both teams being eliminated, the book will pay out on Kansas City, which had a relatively short price all year, and Philadelphia, which took the bulk of its action at less than +500.

The Eagles had been +2200 early in the season. Avello said the book prefers a Kansas City victory, but there’s no danger in an Eagles triumph.

Pick a Promo: Best Super Bowl Sportsbook Bonuses

Super Bowl Prop Tour Around Sportsbook Circuit

Let’s whip around some sportsbooks and find some interesting props being dealt.

Borgata in Atlantic City (operated by BetMGM)

  • The wager on three unanswered scores is -175 for Yes, +145 for No.
  • A score at 6:00 or earlier is +115 for Yes, -145 for No.
  • Game tied after 0-0 is -135 for Yes, -105 for No.
  • Successful 2 pt conversion is +220 for Yes, -300 for No.
  • Team to score longest touchdown is Chiefs -115, Eagles -105
  • First team to score 10 points is Eagles -120, Chiefs +100
  • First team to score 20 points is Eagles -105, Chiefs +115

First scoring play

  • Chiefs TD +200
  • Chief field goal +375
  • Eagles TD +175
  • Eagles field goal +375
  • Any safety +3000

Chiefs Exact Number of Touchdowns

The biggest number is 0, at +1700.

Believe it or not, Kansas City did not have a TD in the Super Bowl two years ago, losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-9.

One New Jersey bettor took $1,500 on KC not to score a TD in that game, a return that would pay $25,500 this time.

The Eagles pay +1600 for no touchdowns.

The lowest odds on each team in this department are the Chiefs +230 for exactly two touchdowns and the Eagles +225 for exactly two.

(From a cross-direction angle, one might interpret that as the books expecting four touchdowns and thus an Under).

Super Bowl MVP Line Movement

BetMGM has a vibrant market in the race for Super Bowl MVP. Here are players’ opening and current odds.

Jalen Hurts +650, +135
Patrick Mahomes +400, +135
Travis Kelce +2800, +1100

Highest Ticket %
Patrick Mahomes 10.9%
Travis Kelce 10.8%
Jalen Hurts 10.4%

Highest Handle %
Patrick Mahomes 21.9%
Jalen Hurts 16.1%
Joe Burrow 11.3%

Biggest Liability
Travis Kelce
Haason Reddick
Miles Sanders

Here are Super Bowl MVP odds from around the sports betting marketplace.

ZOOM: BOOK:

TEAM ODDS PROBABILITY
Patrick Mahomes -133 57.08%
Jalen Hurts +125 44.44%
Travis Kelce +4000 2.44%
A.J. Brown +5000 1.96%
Isiah Pacheco +5000 1.96%
Kenneth Gainwell +5000 1.96%
Dallas Goedert +8000 1.23%
DeVonta Smith +8000 1.23%
Kadarius Toney +8000 1.23%
Miles Sanders +8000 1.23%

Implied probabilities are calculated using odds offered by Consensus.
Last Updated: 2023-02-13 00:00:00 PDT.

Longshots? Don’t Sleep on Defenders in Super Bowl MVP Betting

Kicking, Defense Props at FanDuel

  • A field goal to be blocked and returned for a touchdown is +8000 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • If the opening kickoff is not a touchback, the prop returns +124.
  • Total points between field-goal kickers head-to-head is Harrison Butker -124, Jake Elliott +112.

Also:

  • Total net yards in the game is over-under 739.5 with both sides -110.
  • Total sacks in the game is over-under 5.5, with The Over +104 and the Under at -132.
  • The over-under on interceptions of 1.5 is +152 for the Over and -188 for the Under.

Caesars Sportsbook: Cross-Sports Props

Razzle-dazzle is the name of the game in converting cross-sport prop bets.

Caesars has 46 unique cross-sport betting opportunities for Super Bowl 57.

The options include NBA, college basketball, hockey, soccer, golf, NASCAR, college hockey, and tennis.

An NFL vs. NBA battle has one side getting over twice as many tickets as any other cross-sport prop.

Dallas Goedert receiving yards opened at -1.5 (-115) over Joel Embiid points plus rebounds on Feb. 11 against the Nets. The price on Goedert -1.5 is up to -130, with receiving yardage for the Eagles tight end easily becoming the most popular cross-sport prop bet by tickets.

Among all wagers placed for this market, the Goedert receiving yards side has come away with 93.3% of the tickets and 99.6% of the handle. Goedert receiving yards also has drawn the second-most handle of any cross-sport prop bet.

The cross-sport prop bet with the most handle is fourth-round birdies on the 16th hole in the Waste Management Open -1 (opened -115, now -140) vs. first-quarter points in the Super Bowl.

This has been a 100% clean sweep for fourth-round birdies.

In another golf-football clash, bettors back total punts -1 (opened +105, now -115) vs. Rory McIlroy fourth-round birdies at the Waste Management Open.

One prop involves football vs. futbol, in which total interceptions (opened -115, now -135) has seized 85.7% of the tickets and 98.6% of the handle against Erling Haaland goals vs. Aston Villa.

Another cross-bet prop involves Hurts vs Hoops, Jalen Hurts passing yards has swung from -3.5 (+100) to -4.5 (-115) against Lakers-Warriors points.

Scroll through some more: Jalen Hurts Super Bowl props | Miles Sanders Super Bowl props | Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl props | Travis Kelce Super Bowl props| Super Bowl rushing props | Super Bowl MVP odds

Super Bowl Betting at BetMGM

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About the Author
Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo

Writer
Dave Bontempo is an award-winning writer and broadcaster, who has covered the sports industry since the 1970s. He won the Sam Taub Award for Excellence in Boxing Broadcasting by the Boxing Writers Association of America in 1997, and is in the New Jersey and Atlantic City Boxing Halls of Fame. Bontempo has broadcast major fights all over the world. The advent of legalized sports wagering shifted his focus to this exciting new industry in 2018.

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