LAS VEGAS—The first 10 days or so of wagering on Super Bowl 57 in Vegas have seen the betting line flip from Kansas City to Philadelphia as a small favorite, and many prop bettors have zeroed in on Travis Kelce.
In proposition action, the 10th-year tight end out of Cincinnati who has played every professional snap for the Chiefs has had an abundance of attention focused on him.
The 6-foot-5, 256-pound target has only improved with age, recording career highs in the 2022 campaign with 110 catches and 12 touchdowns.
At the South Point and sister sportsbook property Rampart, Kelce opened at 7-to-1 odds to score the game’s first touchdown Sunday against the Eagles in Arizona. Waves of that cash have lowered the odds to 5-1.
“Massive,” is how Rampart race and sports manager Duane Colucci described it Wednesday. “He’s so flashy, a major attraction. The ticket count and [money] write has been very high on that, and rightfully so. The guy has done damage all year.
“And with that wide receiver corps so banged up, if the Chiefs do get the ball first and try to get it quickly downfield, you know Kelce will be a major part of that. We’re definitely seeing a lot of action on his props.”
Kelce Super Bowl Props Action at BetMGM
At BetMGM’s nine Strip properties, Kelce has been a center of attention on its first-player-to-score prop, too.
BetMGM also features a head-to-head prop involving Kelce giving 36.5 yards to Eagles fifth-year tight end Dallas Goedert. In two playoff games, Kelce has 21 catches for 176 yards and three TDs; Goedert has 10 receptions, for 81 yards and a touchdown.
That’s a Kelce postseason average of 88 yards to Goedert’s 40.5, a 39.5-yard difference.
BetMGM director of trading Lamarr Mitchell reported solid two-way action on that offering.
“Kelce is the man; everybody loves Kelce,” Mitchell said. “Everybody knows Kelce is [KC quarterback Patrick] Mahomes‘ security blanket, the reason why Mahomes and that team has had such a good year.
“They lost receiver Tyreek Hill [last summer to Miami], and Kelce does everything. But you can’t really say who else on the Chiefs [is a threat] … I’m sure the Eagles will key on Kelce.”
Read more: Travis Kelce Super Bowl Props Picks
Super Bowl Point Spread
|Sun (12/10) @ 4:25pm ET||Bills||+3.0 -110||+1.5 -110||+1.5 -110||+1.5 -110||+1.5 -110||+1.5 -108||+1.5 -110|
|Chiefs||-3.0 -110||-1.5 -110||-1.5 -110||-1.5 -110||-1.5 -110||-1.5 -112||-1.5 -110|
|Sun (12/10) @ 8:20pm ET||Eagles||+3.0 +100||+3.5 -115||+3.5 -120||+3.5 -120||+3.0 -103||+3.5 -122||–|
|Cowboys||-3.0 -120||-3.5 -105||-3.5 +100||-3.5 +100||-3.0 -120||-3.5 +100||–|
Passing Yards, Sacks Popular Among Super Bowl Props Bettors
BetMGM is also dangling a prop regarding who will have more passing yards, Mahomes or Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. Mahomes is -300 (risk $300 to win $100), Hurts +220.
“Three dollars [or -300] seems kind of cheap to me,” Mitchell said. “But that’s an even ticket count, right now. You have a guy who led the league in passing; it’s hard for me to believe that number is so low.”
Mahomes led the league this season with 5,250 passing yards and 41 TD passes; Hurts recorded 3,701 and 22, respectively.
In two playoff games, Mahomes has 521 yards and four TDs. He has been sacked three times, all two weekends ago against Cincinnati with a dinged right ankle that he sustained a week earlier against Jacksonville.
Hurts has thrown for a total of 275 playoff yards, with two TDs. He was sacked once each against the Giants and Niners.
That’s a playoff average of 260.5 for Mahomes, 137.5 for Hurts.
The South Point/Rampart have a prop featuring Mahomes -52.5 passing yards versus Hurts. DraftKings has Mahomes -54.5, at -115 either way.
At other shops, Colucci has seen patrons bet Over 3 on Kansas City sacks, which continued to draw Over action when that shifted to 3.5. With Hurts, customers, have bet heavy on Under 2.5 sacks.
Big Super Bowl Props Menu at DraftKings
DraftKings has ‘Yes’ on an Octopus being recorded at 14-to-1 odds and, after opening ‘No’ at -10000 (or risk $100 to win a buck), it has moved that to -5000.
A year ago, it had ‘Yes’ at 14-1, ‘No’ at -2500, on someone who scores a touchdown also registering an ensuing 2-point conversion. Eight points. Get it? It’s the brainchild of Sports Illustrated scribe and Chicago native Mitch Goldich.
“We’re in 22 states, and there will be some huge bets on this game,” DK race and sportsbook director Johnny Avello said. “Hurts or Kelce to score the first TD, or anytime TD, Hurts Over rushing yards, Mahomes Over 285 passing yards.
“All of those really pop on our network. The Octopus, too. When it’s all said and done, we’ll have more than 1,000 props up.”
Kelce tallying the game’s first TD has moved from +650 to +700, last TD +650 to +600, and anytime TD from -130 to -135. That he’ll get at least two TDs (+475) or three TDs (20-1) have not budged from their opening figures.
Philly receiver DeVonta Smith scoring the first TD has gone from 13-1 to 12-1, the last remains at 11-1, and anytime +155 to +150.
A quarterback to have a reception? From 16-1 to 12-1. A quarterback to have a receiving TD? From 40-1 to 30-1.
The parlay of Hurts scampering for at least 30 yards in both halves has sliced from +700 to +650. He has run for 73 total yards, with two TDs, in both of his playoff games.
Mahomes throwing for at least 300 yards and scoring the game’s first TD has fallen from 35-1 to 30-1.
Big Bet on the Eagles
Mitchell has seen some professional players weigh in, most of whose action will be taken between Friday and up to the kickoff.
“We got a little sharp play on the total Over,” he said of 50.5. “The public will bet Over. But I think, with this Eagles defense, it has a good chance to go Under.
“We did take a large, significant seven-figure wager on the Eagles’ moneyline, at -125, to win seven figures.”
He expects many more high-rollers to weigh in on the game come the weekend.
“I’m waiting for quite a few more six- and seven-figure bets to come in Saturday, and early Sunday, before people actually go to the parties,” Mitchell said.
“And with the game being played on the West Coast, we’ll see some of the big players come in here, make their wager and then fly out ot Arizona.”
Bookmaker Favors Philly
Colucci predicted a triumph by Philadelphia, 30-20.
“And I’m going to lay a little more on the Eagles, on those alternate point spreads,” he said, “in case it gets out of hand. The halftime will be even longer, during a Super Bowl, so if Mahomes starts to tighten up … you saw it [in the AFC Championship Game].
“This Philly pass rush is the real deal. I definitely think they’ll bring a big pass rush. Hurts has to play better, but I think he definitely will. It will be tough for the Chiefs to play catch-up.”
He mentioned San Francisco and rookie quarterback Brock Purdy.
“Philly is getting better each week. The Eagles got to Purdy, and that was lights-out. A dominant performance.”
Kenneth ‘Gain’ Well
I mentioned to Mitchell that I’ve loaded up on Eagles tailback Kenneth Gainwell, who has run for 120 total yards in two playoff games.
He checked BetMGM’s figures and said it had 18.5 on his total rushing yards. Within seconds, that had budged to 19.5, and I asked if someone was listening to us.
“Yeah, absolutely,” he laughed. “I might have to make a trip down to a competitor’s book and make a wager [on Gainwell] this weekend.”
Most shops have had Philly favored by 1.5 points, with the total between 50.5 and 51. Station Casinos, with properties that dot the Vegas periphery, and the South Point/Rampart had nudged the spread to Eagles -2 within the previous 48 hours.
Most also had posted moneylines of -125 on Philly, +105 on Kansas City, a typical 20-cent straddle.
Colucci trumpeted a 10-cent straddle at the South Point/Rampart, of -120 on the Eagles and +110 on the Chiefs. Plus, the usual side cost of -110 is -105 at South Point/Rampart.
“We’ve seen great straight-bet action on the moneyline, across the counter,” he said. “If you’re in Vegas and you don’t come to the South Point or Rampart, you’re crazy. If you want to make a sizable wager, you want to come here.”