One of the most popular NFL betting markets is touchdown scorers, and fortunately for bettors and football fans, there’s going to be a lot of points scored in this year’s Super Bowl.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are each loaded with talented scorers, but which players will actually cash for six points? We pick some of the most likely and best-value Super Bowl touchdown scorer bets, along with the best price to get them at.
Among those bets is a play on both quarterbacks scoring with their legs, as well as AJ Brown exploiting a weak Kansas City pass defense.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl Odds
The Eagles (between -120 and -125 on the moneyline as of Friday afternoon) are 1.5-point favorites against the Chiefs. Bettors can grab the underdog with odds ranging from -103 to +106.
Here’s an interesting betting nugget for you: In the past 56 Super Bowls, the outright winner is 47-7-2 ATS (85.7%). Bettors are diving head first into this trend because Kansas City has received 55% of moneyline tickets, and Philadelphia has received 68% of spread tickets at DraftKings.
The Over/Under total for this matchup is set at a high 50.5 points on legal US sports betting apps.
NFL · Sun (2/12) @ 6:43pm ET
|KC Chiefs||at||PHI Eagles|
|State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ|
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for KC-PHI Super Bowl
Patrick Mahomes (+500, Caesars)
Mahomes has just six total runs for 16 yards this postseason, but he’d been fighting an ankle sprain he suffered in the Divisional Round. With two weeks to regain his health, we can expect him to take off a few times when the offense is in the red zone, particularly when you consider the moment.
This wouldn’t be the first time Mahomes has used his legs in a big way in the Super Bowl. He ran nine times for 29 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers in his first appearance in the Big Game. Against the Buccaneers two Super Bowls ago, he ran five times for 33 yards.
The Chiefs quarterback also has five rushing touchdowns in his 13 playoff games and has scored in every postseason he’s been a part of. He hasn’t recorded a touchdown in these playoffs, so Sunday is his last chance to keep the streak alive.
He’s scored in four of his 17 regular season games, which would translate to a +325 price tag, but you can grab this touchdown prop for as high as +500 at Caesars. That, combined with his history of scoring touchdowns in high-leverage situations, makes this a great value.
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AJ Brown (+130, Caesars)
The price tag is about right for AJ Brown, who has scored in eight of his 19 games on the season (11 total touchdowns). However, oddsmakers seem to be disregarding this easy-as-pie matchup. Kansas City gives up the most touchdowns through the air (1.8 per game).
Brown hasn’t had to impose his will during the Eagles’ playoff run (50 yards over two games) as a result of the team bursting to huge leads. But things should be different on Sunday. The Chiefs are going to keep this contest competitive from start to finish, and Jalen Hurts will be on the lookout for his favorite target in Brown when the team needs a score.
Jalen Hurts (+100, FanDuel)
Hurts has been a magnet to the end zone, scoring seven times on the ground over his last five outings, including one in each playoff game this year. He also has 15 rushing touchdowns on the season.
But it’s not just Hurts’ own doing that has us frolicking for this prop. The Chiefs have one of the league’s worst red zone defenses, which is where Hurts scores most of his rushing touchdowns. Kansas City gives up a touchdown on 65.6% of red zone trips, so he’ll be a threat to score on any play once the Eagles’ offense is closer.
Numbers and matchup considered, you’d think his TD price tag would be around -200. That’s what makes this offer a steal. We trust this prop more than most other props with 50/50 lines.
Also read: Super Bowl odds | Super Bowl betting promos and bonuses | Super Bowl squares
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