Sweden vs. USA Predictions, Odds, Props: Struggling USWNT Favored in Women’s World Cup

The USWNT hardly looked like the back-to-back reigning champs in group play of the 2023 Women’s World Cup, but Alex Morgan and Co. can put that behind them when they take on Group G winner Sweden in the Round of 16 on Sunday at 5 a.m. Eastern.

The Swedes — currently +2300 to win it all on FanDuel, which gives eight teams shorter outrights — are flying well below the radar, but pose a difficult challenge.

In Gaming Today’s breakdown of Sweden vs. USA predictions, odds, and props, we tackle the question that has dominated conversations among American soccer fans all week: Can a team that looked so unimpressive against the Netherlands and Portugal play well enough to knock off rock-solid Sweden?

Betting Odds for Sunday’s Sweden vs. USA World Cup Match

Here are Sweden vs. USA betting lines available on top sports betting apps. The odds here reflect the three-way moneyline, where a bet on either team to win is a loss if the game is tied after 90 minutes. As of Wednesday afternoon, FanDuel offers the draw at +230.

Sweden Roster, Injuries, and Betting News

Compared to USA, Sweden lack well-known stars. But this team made impressive runs in both the Tokyo Olympics and last year’s Euro 2022, reaching the final in the former and the semis in the latter. Manager Peter Gerhardsson has been at the helm since 2017, and his experience in the role makes his team an intriguing dark horse in this tournament.

Sweden are led by captain Kosovare Asllani of AC Milan. The 34-year-old’s club career has included previous stints with the Chicago Red Stars, PSG, Manchester City, and Real Madrid. Sweden boast a balanced attack, as five players accounted for the nine goals the team scored in group play. Attacking players Fridolina Rolfo (2 goals), Rebecka Blomqvist (2 goals), and Stina Blackstenius (1 goal) are all in the prime of their careers (between 26 and 29 years old), and they’ll test the USA back line in a way that Vietnam and Portugal could not.

Center back Amanda Ilestedt leads her team in scoring with three goals this World Cup. Against Italy, Ilestedt, who recently signed with Arsenal after two seasons with PSG, headed in two goals from close range on corner kicks. Between Ilestedt’s ability in the air and Sweden’s deep group of experienced attackers, USA’s back line will have a lot to contend with.

Injuries

Sweden are missing defender Hanna Lundkvist, who did not travel to the World Cup due to an ankle injury she suffered in July. Otherwise, Gerhardsson’s side is healthy — and fresh — after sitting out nine of his 11 starters for the final match of group play.

USA Roster, Injuries, and Betting News

USA’s roster features as many stars as any team in this tournament, from veterans Alex Morgan, Crystal Dunn, Lindsey Horan, and Megan Rapinoe to young stars in Naomi Girma at center back and forwards Sophia Smith and Trinity Rodman.

But so far in this tournament, USA have failed to jell. While the first-choice back line of Girma, Dunn, Julie Ertz, and Emily Fox has been outstanding, the midfield and forwards have yet to get on the same page (though they had no problems against overmatched Vietnam in the opener).

Rose Lavelle has been solid in the midfield alongside Horan, but the group struggled against both Netherlands and Portugal. With Lavelle missing Sunday’s round of 16 clash after picking up her second yellow card of the tournament against Portugal, an area that was already a weakness has become an even bigger question mark. Manager Vlatko Andonovski could move Ertz into the middle of the pitch and replace her with Alana Cook, but it’s unclear whether he’s willing to break up his first-choice back line.

Andonovski also has key choices to make up top, where he’s yet to find the right combination between Morgan (3 starts), Smith (3 starts), Rodman (2 starts), and Lynn Williams (1 start). He has two other options, 38-year-old Rapinoe and 18-year-old Alyssa Thompson, but it would be a surprise to see either of those players make more than a cameo off the bench.

Optimists would argue that it’s a matter of time before USA as a team finish their chances better. They did, after all, have 17 shots, including five on target against Portugal, but failed to score. Against the Netherlands, the best team they’ve seen so far — and the only one on the same level as the teams they’ll see moving forward — they put just three of 18 shots on target. They salvaged the draw, though, on a pretty corner by Lavelle that Horan managed to head into the net.

Injuries

From center back Becky Sauerbrunn to midfielders Sam Mewis and Catarina Macario to forward Mallory Swanson, the USWNT traveled to this World Cup without several would-be key contributors.

Through group play, however, the team has avoided any significant injuries, though Lavelle’s suspension for Sunday looms large.

Sweden vs. USA Props

Below is a sampling of betting props for Sweden vs. USA:

Anytime Goalscorer (FanDuel)

• Alex Morgan: +175
• Sophia Smith: +200
• Lynn Williams: +270
• Stina Blackstenius: +290
• Lindsey Horan: +310
• Lina Hurtig: +340
• Rebecka Blomqvist: +410

Correct Score (FanDuel)

• Sweden 1-0: +900
• Sweden 2-0: +1700
• Sweden 2-1: +1200
• USA 1-0: +550
• USA 2-0: +900
• USA 2-1: +800
• 0-0: +700
• 1-1: +500

Total Goal Props (DraftKings)

• Over 0.5 goals -1400, Under 0.5 goals: +600
• Over 1.5 goals -275, Under 1.5 goals: +187
• Over 2.5 goals +125, Under 2.5 goals: -175
• Over 3.5 goals +300, Under 3.5 goals: -500

Sweden vs. USA Prediction: Sweden 1, USA 0

When it comes to the USMNT and USWNT in World Cup action, it takes a lot for me to pick against USA. In fact, I picked the USMNT to draw England in Qatar last November, and even went on record predicting USA would upset the Netherlands in the round of 16, with mixed results.

But right now, Andonovski and the USWNT look out of sorts. This roster’s lack of major tournament experience nearly prevented it from surviving a group that included two teams making their Women’s World Cup debuts.

There would be major questions about the best USWNT line-up for this match even if this squad’s top players were all available and in form. With Lavelle out due to suspension and the highly-touted group of forwards yet to produce (outside of the opener against Vietnam), the only group that has looked World Cup contender-worthy has been the back line.

Sweden are playing too well to pick against them, and they’re well rested after rotating their squad heavily in their final match in Group G. Their experience at the Tokyo Olympics 2021 (where they lost in the final) and the Women’s Euro 2022 last summer (where they reached the semifinals before being blown out by hosts England) makes them even more dangerous. That’s especially true considering that more than half of USA’s likely starters in this match lack experience on this stage.

Sweden, on the other hand, will likely start seven players who started last summer’s Euro 2022 semifinal loss to England, and an eighth — Johanna Rytting Kaneryd — who entered that match as a sub. As strange as it sounds to say about an underdog taking on the pre-tournament favorites, Sweden have clear advantages in this match-up in terms of experience, trusted depth (Andonovski has been hesitant to make substitutions), and cohesion. Those factors make Sweden exceptionally good value.

The Americans’ success in 2015 and 2019 explains why they’re favored on Sunday, but Sweden are the smart play.

Here are a few bets available at DraftKings that are worth checking out:

• Sweden Moneyline (+265)
• Double Chance – Sweden or Tie (-140)
• Under 1.5 Goals (+185)

Sweden vs. USA Broadcast Info: Where to Watch

• Date/Time: Sunday, August 6, 5:00 a.m. ET
• Location: Melbourne Rectangular Stadium

Watch this match at one of the following:

• Fox
• Fubo
• DirecTV Stream
• Sling Blue
• Telemundo
• Peacock Premium
• Universo
• Sling Latino