Tailing Turnbull’s Totals Tally

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Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Brad Keller (2-3, 4.07 ERA) vs. Spencer Turnbull (2-2, 2.53 ERA)

Since he pitches for the Tigers, Turnbull has been flying well under the radar through the season’s first month-and-change in more ways than one.

The former second-round draft choice debuted last September and provided mix results in his four appearances (three starts). To begin his first full campaign in the majors, however, Turnbull has been much more consistent, allowing no more than three runs in any of his six starts.

He’s clearly in a groove right now, with opponents scratching out a total of only two runs (one earned) in his last three outings combined, spanning 17 innings. Turnbull has been so steady that the under has gone 5-1 in his assignments. Part of that is due to the oddsmakers not yet giving the right-hander enough credit, which also explains why this over/under is as high as it is.

The same argument could be made for Keller, another underrated starting pitcher residing in the American League Central division — at least based on last year’s seemingly hidden breakout showing by the then-rookie.

In his first season, Keller finished 9-6 with a very respectable 3.08 ERA in 140.1 innings. Of his 41 appearances, 20 were starts, and during his turns in the rotation, Keller impressively only surrendered six homers. This year, he’s surrendered only three in seven starts.

That’s notable because the Tigers are tied for last as a team in the AL in long balls at home. Furthermore, Detroit is scoring less than three runs per game at Comerica Park. A downgraded Sunday lineup drawn up can only increase our chances of a similar offensive performance.

Speaking of home runs, Turnbull can also be useful there in terms of keeping the ball in the yard. The 26-year-old has never allowed multiple taters in a game, and he’s given up just one in only three of his nine career starts. Eliminating the big fly could keep the final score on the low side. Play: UNDER 8.5 (-115)

Yesterday’s Result: Braves-Marlins Under 7.5 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 18-18-1, -2.25 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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