The evening’s second of two ranked college basketball matchups is a Big-12 showdown between No.17 TCU Horned Frogs and No. 19 Baylor Baylor. While both teams come into this game ranked inside the top 20, they have experienced different seasons than their preseason expectations.
Baylor came into the year with high expectations, but three losses to quality opponents and overall sluggishness throughout the season have them at 10-3, and they are currently 7th in the Big 12. Meanwhile, TCU was not thought highly of entering the season, and the Frogs stumbled out of the gate, losing to N’Western State earlier in the year. However, they have rattled off 10 straight wins, including victories over Iowa and Texas Tech.
Even though these teams are trending in opposite directions, this is sure to be a great game, and if you need help digging through the TCU vs. Baylor odds, we are happy to help.
TCU vs. Baylor Betting Odds: Point Spread, Total, Moneyline
If you are planning on placing a bet on this game, we advise you to shop around for the best odds on the market. You can do so by checking out the current lines from top US sportsbooks for TCU vs. Baylor.
How to Watch TCU vs. Baylor
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 4 | Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
Location: Ferrell Center – Waco, Tx
Where to Watch: ESPN2
TCU vs. Baylor Betting Trends
- TCU is 6-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games
- TCU is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games against Baylor
- TCU is 0-5 SU in their last five road games
- The total has gone UNDER in five of Baylor’s last six games
- The total has gone OVER in 13 of Baylor’s last 19 games against TCU
- Baylor is 9-3 SU when playing as the favorite this season
TCU Horned Frogs (12-1, 7-5-1 ATS)
Would you believe this is only TCU’s second road game this season? Their first time playing as the road team came against Utah earlier in the season, and they played that game at the Utah Jazz’s arena. This will be the first true road test for the Horned Frogs, and they are walking into a place that only a few Big 12 opponents have walked out of a winner in recent years.
Even though TCU has played one of the easiest schedules to start the year, they are playing some great basketball during this 10-game winning streak, especially on the defensive side. Their defense enters this game ranked 26th in scoring (61.2), 18th in effective field goal percentage (43.8%), and 11th in shooting efficiency (1.056). They are also ranked inside the top 30 in all shooting metrics, which means this defense is athletic, they guard the perimeter well, and they can handle an explosive offense like Baylor.
Offensively, they are putting up 78.1 points per game, and while they are not a great shooting team, TCU scores 60% of their baskets off assists, and they are one of the best rebounding teams in the country. They do all the little things right to make up for their lack of shooting, and they are throttling teams.
Baylor Bears (10-3, 6-7 ATS)
There is good and bad news for the Bears. The good news is that LJ Cryer has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to play. The bad news is that Baylor might be in trouble if he is not back to 100%.
Cryer accounts for 30% of Baylor’s total shots, and he gives this Baylor team that struggles to shoot the deep ball some life from outside. As a whole, Baylor is putting up 79.3 points per game, but they are only shooting 35.4% from three. Tonight, they will be going up against a TCU defense that has done an excellent job limiting opposing teams’ effectiveness from outside, but luckily for the Bears, they have not done it against a quality team quite like Baylor.
In the last two games without Cryer, Baylor is 1-1 with a brutal loss to Iowa State. They have a solid guard duo of Adam Flagler and Keyonte George to hold down the scoring load for this offense, but with Cryer back in the lineup, that is just too much firepower to deal with.
TCU vs. Baylor Prediction
Not only is this a matchup of two entertaining teams, but offensively, both play with a high tempo. TCU is ranked 61st in KenPom’s Adjusted tempo rating, and Baylor is only 120th according to KenPom, but they are also averaging 72.4 possessions per game.
Both teams are also solid defensively, but with TCU’s dominating numbers on the glass and Baylor’s struggles allowing offensive rebounds, the Horned Frogs have a significant advantage on the boards, which can turn into many fastbreak opportunities, where TCU thrives.
However, this is TCU’s first real road game, and while they have been playing better than Baylor this season, the Bears have more talented scoring threats, and they have dominated TCU recently, winning eight of the last nine games at home against TCU.
The numbers say take TCU and the points, but this is the perfect spot to hop on the over. With two up-tempo offenses and the fact that the total has gone over in 13 of the last 19 between these two, betting on this game to go over the number is a wise investment.
Pick: Over 144 (-110); odds via DraftKings Sportsbook