The No. 6 seed TCU Horned Frogs (20-11, 9-9) and the No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats (23-8, 11-7) will face off in the Big 12 Tournament Quarterfinals today at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2. If you are looking for some help picking a side, we have got you covered with our TCU vs. Kansas State odds, trends, and betting picks.
Although TCU is the lower seed, they come in as the favorite at most sportsbooks. These two teams split the regular season matchups, with Kansas State winning the latter of the two by 21 points. The Wildcats also enter this game as winners of four of its last five, while TCU stumbled down the stretch, losing the last regular season game to Oklahoma and two of its final four overall.
TCU was one of the trendier picks to go on a run not only in the Big 12 Tournament but for the NCAA March Madness Tournament. However, their play as of late is troublesome, and they have lost a key player for the season, making the Horned Frogs climb even steeper tonight. Either way, we are here to break down the matchups and give the people a winner for TCU vs. Kansas State.
TCU vs. Kansas State Betting Odds: Points Spread, Moneyline, Total
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Below, we have included the odds and lines from some of our favorite mobile sportsbooks.
NCAAB · Thu (3/9) @ 9:35pm ET
|TCU TCU||at||KSU Kansas State|
|Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, Kansas|
TCU vs. Kansas State Betting Trends
- TCU is 2-7 against the spread (ATS) in its last nine games
- The total has gone Under in six of TCU’s last eight games
- TCU is 2-4 ATS in its last six games against Kansas State
- TCU is 2-4 straight up (SU) in its last six games against Kansas State
- Kansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
- The total has gone Under in six of Kansas State’s last nine games
- Kansas State is 4-1 SU in its last five games
- The total has gone Under in 12 of Kansas State’s last 16 games against TCU
TCU Horned Frogs (20-11, 15-15-1 ATS)
If TCU’s play down the stretch wasn’t bad enough, the Horned Frogs will be without Eddie Lampkin Jr. due to personal reasons. It has yet to be determined how long the TCU big man will be out, but the rumors flying around Fort Worth are they do not expect him back this season.
TCU checks all the boxes of an excellent team. They are ranked inside the top 60 in KenPom‘s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rating and Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rating (25th). The resume is impressive, as they have the horses on offense, and they have had the pleasure — whether it is fortunate or not, I will this leave up to you — of playing in the toughest conference in college basketball this season.
The Big 12 has been a war the entire season, and that means we should expect nothing different from the conference tournament. If that is the case, TCU has a significant advantage in this game because they play so well on both sides of the ball. TCU’s defense is giving up 68 points per game, but they are not making it easier on other teams to find ways to score, as they are allowing teams to shoot only 31.1% from deep and 42.5% from the field.
With Lampkin out, TCU will have to find some production down low from the rest of the team, but with Mike Miles Jr., Emanuel Miller, JaKobe Coles, and a list of other contributors, TCU’s offense is in good hands, which will be a key for this game as they go up against a tough Kansas State defense.
Kansas State Wildcats (23-8, 21-10 ATS)
Not only have the Wildcats been one of the best teams in the country, but they have also dominated the sportsbooks, going 21-10 ATS this season, including an incredible 12-4 ATS at home. They are also 4-0 ATS at neutral site games this season.
Enough of that, the Wildcats are another one of those teams that ranks very high on both sides of the ball, according to KenPom, but he is giving this offense just a little too much credit. They’re ranked 50th in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rating and are putting up 75.8 points per game.
However, they tend to rely a bit too much on the dynamic duo of Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, which is a good thing. Both players are averaging 17+ points per game and are both good three-ball shooters, but against this TCU defense, they might be in for some trouble.
They play a very aggressive-oriented offense that has them driving the ball toward the rim on more than half of its possessions, and they play with the 40th-quickest pace, according to KenPom. Defensively, they are giving up 69.7 points per game, and with their style of play on offense, they are prone to turnover-heavy performances, which is exactly how you leave a conference tournament earlier than you probably should have.
TCU vs. Kansas State Betting Pick
Kansas State thumped TCU in the last of two regular season matchups between these two, but the Frogs were without Miles. When he did play, TCU was the team doing the thumping. Although TCU will be without a critical piece of the rotation, they are giving points in this spot for a reason.
TCU is physical and athletic, and they can beat you on both sides of the court, which Kansas State may also do, but they are a little too top-heavy for our liking. Johnson and Nowell very well may have dominant performances tonight, but we are going to rock with the Frogs in this one.
Pick: TCU -2 via DraftKings Sportsbook
How to Watch TCU vs. Kansas State
Date: Thursday, March 9, 2023
Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
Location: T-Mobile Center — Kansas City, MO
Where to Watch: ESPN2
Check updated numbers: March Madness odds
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