Tennessee vs North Carolina Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Tight Top-20 Matchup Projected

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The Tennessee Volunteers look to snap a two-game losing streak but will have a tough challenge as they travel to the Dean Dome to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels. This should be a fantastic Wednesday night college basketball matchup, and we are here to break down the Tennessee vs. North Carolina odds, picks & predictions.

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Tennessee has not played in a week, and they are coming off two straight losses in the Maui tournament. Meanwhile, North Carolina is coming off a 15-point win over Arkansas in the Battle 4 Atlantis and has only lost one game this season, a tight two-point loss to Villanova.

According to the latest betting odds, this is projected to be a tight game. Currently, the oddsmakers favor North Carolina by a slim point margin, with the total sitting around . If you need help picking a side for this game, we have got you covered as we have poured through the data and come up with the best Tennessee vs. North Carolina betting pick.

Read More: Best College Basketball Betting Sites | March Madness Odds

Tennessee vs. North Carolina Betting Odds: Point Spread, Moneyline, Total

Here, we have listed the Tennessee vs. North Carolina odds from our top-rated sports betting apps. Before placing your Tennessee vs. North Carolina pick, check out each book to ensure you get the best odds and lines for your bet.

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Tennessee Volunteers (4-2, 3-3 ATS)

Coming into this season, everyone knew this would be a defense-first team. That has remained true through six games, as Tennessee’s defense ranks 18th in scoring, 15th in shots made per game, and they are first in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating. 

While they only put up 73.7 points per game, they take many high-quality shots. The Vols are putting up 25 threes per game, ranking 12th in ShotQuality’s adjusted shot quality rate.

The offense is led by Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht, who puts up 17.5 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 38% from deep. He is one of two players averaging 10+ points per game, along with Jordan Gainey. With Knecht, Gainey, and Josiah-Jordan James all shooting over 36% from three, the Vols can smother you with three-point attempts, and that plays very well in this game, as the Tar Heels have struggled to defend the arc. 

North Carolina ranks 242nd in three-point attempts allowed, and they are toward the bottom of the country in open three rate. While they are only allowing teams to shoot just a touch over 30% from three, Tennessee has a lot of three-point shooting depth, and if Santiago Vescovi can reacquire his touch from last season, the Vols will have one of the most dangerous offenses in the country. 

Although they do not have a ton of size, the Vols should also look to attack the middle, as North Carolina struggles at defending the paint. North Carolina has one of the more dangerous offenses in the country, but thanks to elite defense and an offense that thrives at high-quality shots, the Vols are in an excellent position to walk into one of the most hostile environments and pick up a huge win. 

Tennessee Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Tennessee’s last nine games. 
  • Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last six games against North Carolina. 
  • Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. 

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North Carolina Tar Heels (5-1, 3-3 ATS)

The Tar Heels play very fast on offense, ranking 61st in possessions per game. As a result, they put up a ton of shots, which is needed as they do not shoot the ball all that well. While they rank 17th in adjusted offensive shot quality, the Tar Heels only make 7.5 three-pointers per game.

Most of the offense runs through Armando Bacot, who dominates in the paint. That can be a big problem for Tennessee tonight, as the Vols do not have anyone to match up with Bacot down low. Tennessee has one of the better defenses in the country, but they have struggled to defend the rim, which means Bacot and Harrison Ingram could be in for monster nights. 

Defensively, North Carolina has had some problems defending the three-point line, which could cause trouble tonight. However, Tennessee does not shoot the ball toward the rim well enough for me to be concerned about North Carolina’s weak defense down low. As long as Bacot and Ingram are in, it will be tough getting past them. 

The size advantage heavily favors North Carolina. With both teams playing with a quick tempo, there will be many rebound opportunities, and the Heels should dominate that area, which will lead to more offensive possessions. 

Even though Tennessee’s offense is slightly more efficient, the Heels put up many shots. Even without Cormac Ryan, who has been out for a few games with an ankle injury, North Carolina will get its shots up. 

North Carolina Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in four of the last six matchups between these two. 
  • North Carolina is 17-3 SU in its last 20 home games. 
  • The total has gone OVER in four of North Carolina’s last six games. 

Tennessee vs North Carolina Prediction: Scoring Outburst Expected in Chapel Hill

Both offenses have a clear strength. For Tennesee, it is shooting the three ball, and for North Carolina, they score at the rim. Luckily for those looking to bet the over, the Tar Heels struggle defending the arc, and the Vols have an apparent mismatch down low. 

When both offenses’ strengths play well to the weaknesses of both defenses, we should expect a lot of scoring. It also helps that these two teams play very quickly on offense, and although Tennesee’s top-ranked defense is troubling, they are averaging a little over 15 seconds per defensive possession. 

Each team will look for one-half of the two highest-quality shots in basketball. The Vols will be taking a lot of threes, and North Carolina will feed the ball inside and feast on the size mismatch. 

Tennessee vs. North Carolina Prediction: Over


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How To Watch Tennessee vs. North Carolina

Date: Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2023

Puck Drop: 7:15 p.m. ET

Location: Dean E. Smith Center – Chapel Hill, NC

Where to Watch: ESPN

About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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