Two of the nation’s most dynamic tailbacks will deservedly be featured on this national FS1 television broadcast. Texas RB Bijan Robinson and Iowa State RB Breece Hall will factor heavily into the outcome of this contest.
The Cyclones are consensus 6.5-point favorites, but that seems far too risky in a game that could go either way. Both sport top-15 rushing attacks, so the wise option is to root for both star runners to have field days and points galore.
Texas Longhorns (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS)
Robinson, a sophomore from Tucson, hit a blip last week when he ran for only 43 yards in a 31-24 loss at Baylor. He did score a touchdown, his 11th on the ground this season, and he has three through the air.
His most impressive stat might be having touched the ball 178 times this season without a fumble. Robinson’s 967 rushing yards rank seventh in the country. He had amassed 752 yards and found paydirt eight times in five previous games before Baylor.
Iowa State does allow a paltry 3.2 yards per run, 15th-lowest in the nation, so that is something to consider. Texas averages 31 points on the road; Iowa State puts up 33 on average at home.
Both teams own top-10 points-per-play rates and top-20 marks for scoring inside the red zone.
Iowa State Cyclones (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS)
Hall, the junior from Wichita who finished sixth in last season’s Heisman Trophy voting, has run for 847 yards and 10 touchdowns, with one through the air, in his past six games. He recorded 167 in a defeat last weekend at West Virginia. All-world tight end Charlie Kolar caught only one pass for 10 yards in the loss.
We have never liked coach Matt Campbell’s choice of Tom Manning for offensive coordinator since his hiring in 2019. Manning had even served two seasons as Iowa State’s defensive coordinator before his return to Ames.
Campbell, though, does hold many of the team’s offensive reins. And senior quarterback Brock Purdy has completed 73.3% of his attempts, the third-best figure among QBs who are currently taking snaps.
The Texas sieve of a secondary is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.5% of their passes, and only 13 defenses have been worse this season. So Purdy might be allowed to open up an air attack and allow Kolar to thrive.
Hall, though, will set the tempo. His 985 yards rank fifth in the nation. He averages 5.5 per run, to Robinson’s 5.9. Hall has scored at least one TD in all eight Iowa State games.
Sports Betting Recommendation
The average total points of the past six Texas games have been 73. There have been at least 60 points tallied in three of the past five Cyclones tilts. Our models show 59, 62, and 67 points being scored.
Robinson and Hall figure to put on a heavyweight show with big totals in yards and points.
Texas at Iowa State Pick
Over 60.5 (-110) at PointsBet