We have a special edition this week! With three Thursday football games on tap, we are delighted to have the opportunity to bet on a variety of Thanksgiving NFL player props.
Last week, we looked like we were moving toward a 6-2 record. Unfortunately, we were bitten by the injury bug on consecutive weeks. Ceedee Lamb was unable to compete after the first half due to a concussion, and Justin Fields suffered a rib injury. The unfortunate circumstances led us to a disappointing 5-7 record.
Thankfully we get two cracks at righting the ship this week. There will be two Week 12 player prop articles this week — Thursday’s followed by our usual Sunday edition.
Lines were available as of Wednesday and are subject to change as money is wagered.
Current Record: 55-49
Have an amazing Thanksgiving, and as always, follow the advice of Furio from The Sopranos — “Bet with your head, not over it”
NFL Thanksgiving Player Prop Bets
D’Andre Swift Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts +100 (DraftKings)
Will this game be fun to watch? No. Will it be competitive? Yes. These teams are NFL bottom feeders, but D’Andre Swift is the best player in Detroit by a (8) mile. The Lions are not afraid to feed him the rock early and often. He had 33 carries against the Steelers just two weeks ago. Last week, while he only 14 carries (for 136 yards), the Lions ran just 46 total plays, thanks to backup QB Tim Boyle. Jared Goff is back in the fold, so expect Swift to go off once again and maybe even help his team earn its first win this season.
Dak Prescott Over 34.5 Pass Attempts +100 (PointsBet)
Not sure why this number is so low — and at even-money to boot — but we are going with the ‘over’. Dak has surprassed this number in three of his last four games, the outlier being when he was benched in garbage time against the Atlanta Falcons in a 43-3 laugher. This sets us up for a tasty opportunity Thursday at +100.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts +110 (PointsBet)
Full disclosure: I played a same-game parlay of Dak ‘over’ 34.5 pass attempts and Zeke ‘over’ 15.5 rushing attempts at +350 odds. That parlay looks like a solid betting opportunity on Thanksgiving, as do these plays individually. At +110, we are betting on Elliott to be fed the ball consistently in what is an expected positive game script.
DraftKings special: Risk-free same game parlay
Andy Dalton Over 29.5 Pass Attempts -125 (BetMGM)
Que the music! Jim Ross on the mic, “The Red Rifle is back!”…. Yes, Andy Dalton is back for the Chicago Bears as their QB1. He looked solid in relief of an injured Justin Fields in last week’s 16-13 loss to Baltimore. For this week, 29.5 pass attempts are reasonable in a game I expect to be competitive throughout. He had 23 pass attempts in a single half of play against the Ravens last week. — 29.5 is a smash spot.
QB1. pic.twitter.com/TuyrAcpoCM
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) March 25, 2021
Deonte Harris Under 36.5 Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)
This is almost the exact line FanDuel had for Marques Valdes-Scantling back in our Week 9 player prop article, and we’re using the same reasoning for the ‘under’ on this one, too. Backup quarterback, the third-best weapon at best, and a hit-or-miss player. Could he catch a 40-yard touchdown? Absolutely. Am I willing to bet he won’t? 100%.
D’Andre Swift Over 4.5 Receptions +100 (DraftKings)
Less confident here than the rushing attempts play. However, the projection of 4.5 is a bit too low — I see 5.5 as the better number. We are looking at at least three screen pass catches, and there should be room for two more catches for Detroit’s best offensive player.
Hunter Renfrow Under 5.5 Receptions +115 (DraftKings)
A big number here for Renfrow to hit. Undoubtedly the security blanket for Derek Carr, Renfrow did not hit this number last week. Moreover, there are some rumblings that Marcus Mariota is going to get some run at quarterback for the Raiders. Derek Carr hasn’t been up to standard for Las Vegas the last few weeks, so this wouldn’t be too surprising. Still, getting +115 on this prop bet when Renfrow will likely draw a matchup with Jourdan Lewis is a fine bet.
Also read: Week 12 odds and early moves | Week 12 totals
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