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New York Mets at San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 6.5

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Jacob deGrom (2-3, 3.82 ERA) vs. Chris Paddack (2-1, 1.82 ERA)


Following a historically dominant 2018 campaign that resulted in a National League Cy Young award, there was no question some sort of regression would be in the works for Jacob deGrom. After all, how long can someone possibly continue spinning a quality start literally every time out?

Well, the answer would be 26 – that is, an MLB-record-tying 26 consecutive quality starts for deGrom, which spilled into the beginning of this year. The magnificent streak finally ended in his third outing of the season, but the surprising part was that deGrom didn’t instantly bounce back.

In fact, the Met ace went three straight assignments without recording a quality start, recording a shocking 9.69 ERA within that span. Fortunately, it appears deGrom is back on the upswing if his last turn in the rotation is any indication after blanking the Reds across seven scoreless innings last Wednesday.

While his opponent this evening is actually a legitimate contender for the first time in a decade, deGrom will still be in a position to keep it going. For his career, the 30-year has registered a superb 1.66 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in six meetings with the Padres. It should also help being able to work from one of the friendliest venues for pitchers in all of baseball, Petco Park, where deGrom has yielded only five runs in 28.1 career innings, good for a 1.54 ERA.

Meanwhile, the other pitcher in this matchup is also eyeing some hardware, with Paddack making a strong early case for this year’s NL Rookie of the Year honor.

In his first taste of the majors, San Diego’s prized young right-hander has simply been excellent. He’s still yet to even allow more than three runs in a start, but looking at the rest of his numbers, it’s clear to see why. Paddack has crafted a 0.70 WHIP and microscopic .126 batting average against, both marks ranking him first among all big-league starters.

For his seventh assignment, Paddack gets a lineup that has been pretty quiet lately, totaling only 15 runs in its last seven games. In turn, the under has hit in six straight for the Mets.

One standout performance could be all it takes to reel in the under here. It doesn’t seem likely that either pitcher gets roughed up, and with two solid bullpens to lean on after, this is my Monday total. Play: UNDER 6.5 (-110)

Yesterday’s Result: Royals-Tigers Under 8.5 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 19-18-1, -1.25 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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