I want to thank you, my readers and followers, for your overwhelming show of support. I have received countless emails, tweets, and IM’s, which all happen to be very positive.
Some questions that have been asked are about betting futures. As the better teams are taking strongholds in their divisions, many of you are asking if you should start betting these teams to win the World Series.
The popularity of future bets have skyrocketed over the years. It was once really just a novelty. A guy from New York would come out and bet $50 on the Yankees. It wasn’t really as much about the money as it was just putting a few bucks on your favorite team.
It was also a way to have “action” for the entire season for people that did not have access to daily sports betting. Local bookmakers and offshore gaming facilities aside, more and more states have made it legal to bet sports, resulting in many of you having a daily outlet to play.
As far a future bets go, I personally like my money where it belongs … in my pocket. I would rather bet more on one game that I like today than lock my money up for six months with the odds against me. If I bet one game today, I win or I lose. Tomorrow is another day.
However, betting long term puts 29 teams against you. Of course you can throw out about 50 to 60 percent of the teams right away, but still, the odds are against you.
Also, remember, betting is about value. You are not going to get long odds on the teams that are the “elite” few that really have a shot to win it all.
We have all read about a certain bettor or two that makes a big payday betting a team to win the World Series. But what you don’t know is, very often, that bettor has put wagers on multiple teams and most of the time winds up breaking even or even losing money.
There are “sharps” out there that look for value with long-term bets, but these are guys with the knowledge and the funds to take that risk.
By all means, make a wager on a few teams you feel have a solid shot at winning the Fall Classic while giving you value. But don’t bet the kids’ college fund on it.
Here are this week’s Best Bets (all records, stats, and trends are as of press time Tuesday and may change as can starting pitchers):
Wednesday
Cardinals at Phillies: Philadelphia has quietly taken over first place in the NL East at 31-22. The Phils are playing good baseball, getting contributions both at the plate and on the mound.
Outside of the New York Yankees, the Cardinals are the most storied team in the history of the sport, winning 11 World Series titles. They started the season strong, but since May began, are just 6-16, falling into a third-place tie in the competitive NL Central, at 22-26.
The Phillies have taken two of the three meetings this season and send Aaron Nola to the hill here. The right-hander is 5-0 with a 4.53 ERA, fanning 66 batters in 57.2 IP, including a May 7th win over the Cardinals in which the 26-year old allowed three hits and one ER, striking out seven, in 6.0 IP.
Genesis Cabrera gets the road start. The 22-year old left-hander, who is a native of the Dominican Republic, is making his Major League debut. The team is 6-13 the last 19 vs. righty starters, 2-8 the last 10 on the road, and 4-10 the last 14 vs. teams with a winning record. PHILLIES
Diamondbacks at Rockies: Prior to this season, Colorado had its way with Arizona, winning six of the last seven meetings in 2018. But, these are two very different teams this season, as the Diamondbacks won two of three in the earlier series. The D-Backs own the best road record in the NL West at 17-12 and average 5.76 RPG as a guest.
They send Robbie Ray to the bump and the left-hander owns a very respectable 4-1 record on the campaign, whiffing 76 batters in 58.0 IP. As a matter of fact, the 27-year old has started to hit his stride the last three seasons, with a combined record of 25-8.
The Rockies give Jeff Hoffman the nod. The righty got shellacked in his first two starts, yielding 13 hits and nine ER’s, never making it past 5.0 IP, en route to a 0-1, 8.10 mark. The team’s pitching overall, has been atrocious, ranking 26th, with a Team ERA of 5.15. Colorado is 2-5 the last seven vs. teams with a winning record and 4-6 the last 10 overall. DIAMONDBACKS
Mets at Dodgers: There were high hopes for New York, especially after starting the season off at 9-3. The Mets were doing something they hadn’t done in recent seasons — they hit the ball.
They have since showed inconsistency on both offense and their pitching. Granted, they had won six of their last seven, but they were at home facing the Nationals and Tigers, which have a combined overall record of 41-62, including a 19-31 mark on the road.
This is a team that ranks 18th in both scoring (4.60 RPG) and Team ERA (4.43). But things worsen on the road for NY, as they are 11-17 as a visitor, accounting for 4.14 RPG, with a Team ERA of 5.07.
Things are going to go from worse to downright tragic here as they go into Dodger Stadium, where they are 2-6 the last eight and face an L.A. team that has taken 14 of the last 17 overall meetings. The Dodgers are one of the best home teams in baseball, sporting a 19-6 record and averaging 5.64 RPG. Los Angeles has not slowed down at all, ranking 5th in scoring (5.38 RPG) and 3rd in Team ERA (3.52).
Walker Buehler takes the mound at home. The right-hander has been superb, donning a 5-1, 3.58 record. In his last four starts, the Vanderbilt product has gone no less than 6.0 IP, and over his last three turns, has not yielded more than one ER. By the way, he is a perfect, 2-0 at Dodger Stadium in 2019.
New York sends Noah Syndergaard to the hill. After a 13-4 campaign last season, there was high hopes for the 2010 draftee as well. But, he is just 3-4 with a 4.93 ERA this season. Los Angeles is 37-14 the last 51 at home, 69-33 the last 102 vs. the NL East, and 20-7 the last 27 overall. DODGERS
Last week: 2-1
Season: 12-8
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