This has been a perfect super bowl line for the books

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Well, it all hits the fan this Sunday. Favored Green Bay takes on Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV as the Nevada sports books look to close out one of their most successful seasons in some time.

So far this has been a perfect line for the books. Their hope is staying at -2½ with the Packers and not move the line to -3 and where a push would cause a refund of all the money.

Parlays would revert down but the books would need to pay both winners – ones that bet the -3 and the bettors that took the +3.

The line looked very solid all last week but then some big money came in on the Packers as Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey is hurt. Bad news for my future bet on the Steelers at 20-1 so I took the little hedge and bet the Packers on the money line at -130.

That line has moved back up and is now -140 and higher while the Packers are now -2½ -120. You can also bet on the Steelers at +2½ even money.

As for the total I was thinking about betting the under but as I researched the game and played it in my head I decided that OVER 44½ was the play.

I did see it go to 45 at Stations on Sunday so it looks to be moving back up as it did open at 46. That will be my major play on the game besides my future bet.

As for the game, I still believe it is a crap shoot, the Steelers win ugly, and no matter what you think of Big Ben he is a winner and knows how to get the job done in big game situations. Take the STEELERS +3 if you see it in some spots that get weak in the knees.

Money moves the line, and if the overwhelming action shows on the Packers, which it well could, the game could settle at -3. Bet the over early in the week as it can only go up. If you like the Packers lay the -2½ now, but if you like Pittsburgh take a wait and see approach.

I will head home early after I get my horse bets in, open a bottle of red, get a nice salad ready for halftime with a little side of pasta with some red sauce, sit back and enjoy with the dogs, Dino and Libby, while my brother will be in his room smoking a cig yelling and screaming at the TV.

All will be fine. No matter what the outcome and no matter what team you are rooting for, remember this is not life and death. Just thank your lucky stars you are able to have the freedom to enjoy the spectacle because on Monday it will be back to the present as life goes on.

I have been going over the prop plays and I am still dizzy. I will be posting my key prop plays on the web this Friday but I did bet 15-1 that the first score of the game would be by the Packers.

And, the score would be any TD other than a run or pass from scrimmage. So if the Pack can run one back or get an INT for a TD we collect. It seems worth a small shot.

Jimmy “The Legend” Vaccaro’s article in GT last week really brought back some fond memories of my favorite times in Vegas back in the late 70’s. I could still taste the pepper and egg sandwiches Vince put out at the Tower of Pizza. They were to die for.

Almost every Saturday morning I would drive down and pick up a half dozen for the guys at the Stardust. I always would say hi to Tito Adami who was a cook and put out some good pizzas. At that time, believe it or not, the dish washer was my future boss at the Stardust, Scotty Schettler.

I am not sure if he was a better dish washer or bookmaker, but his dishes were very clean. Now I eat my lunch at places like Roma Deli while Jimmy V hangs out at the Aria.

I ran into Jimmy a few weeks ago and said we should have lunch, I said the Aria sounds good, but never heard back so I guess it will be off to my $6 lunch at Roma.

last week since Oct. 25 PCT
1-2 55-52-3 51.4

 

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