Can we welcome the New England Patriots back to our public betting party after sending them away from our strategy lately?
Just think about how most of us felt about them before Sunday ight’s home thrashing they put on the Bengals. We saw Patriots +3, plus points at home for the first time since 2005, and knew it was ridiculous, but didn’t get in line to take the value because of lingering doubt.
However, many people did and the game was a 50-50 split in wagers, a ratio so even we rarely see in any Patriots isolated night game during the Belichick-Brady era. People love to bet the Patriots and they’re such a high-profiled brand that they attract people to wagering. In a way, they increase Las Vegas revenues.
So I found it amusing that I was going through this process, but didn’t take advantage of it. After the 43-17 win, which showed equally how wrong we might have been about the Bengals, I asked myself whether I still trusted the Patriots. A checkmark was added to just about ‘Yes, improved’ box for the Patriots, except for seeing them do it again.
Were all of our questions truly answered by them Sunday night? Was that the light switch? Is it go-time for the Patriots now? It’s still only one game and that team that went 1-3 ATS in their previous four games is still tucked away in those uniforms somewhere.
I saw four games where they didn’t look so good and one game here they were great. I’m trying not to let what we saw last sway too much for who they are, but their rating increases by about 1.5-points now.
The Super Bowl future odds board at the Westgate LV SuperBook burped as their odds slightly dropped from 14-to-1 down to 12-1 after the impressive win. The Patriots were already respected by the books. which means maybe the first four Patriots games was the anomaly.
Before making any further judgments on the Patriots, I want to see their performance this week as 3-point favorites at Buffalo. That numbers suggests a 1.5-point rating increase with New England and says Buffalo’s home field is worth 3.
I love what the Bills are doing right now by making the move to Kyle Orton. Large money also liked it last week at Detroit as they bet the Bills down from +7 to +5. Orton’s steady play in key moments allowed the stellar defense to do their thing and shut down the Lions offense in a 17-14 win, one of two underdogs to win outright on Sunday – Patriots were the other.
The Bills are good enough to beat the Patriots and catch them in a vulnerable situation – after an emotional win – in this key AFC East battle.
The Jets should take notice of the Buffalo QB switch and give Michael Vick a chance to play an entire game, instead of just a substitution. Rex Ryan let him play the second-half at San Diego when they were down 21-0, of an eventual 31-0 route.
And how about those Chargers? They’ve covered every game for bettors this season, 5-0 ATS. SuperBook executive director Jay Kornegay says he’s been seeing a lot more action on the Chargers lately and on Sunday they were part of a potent two-team parlay that hit the books hard.
“Broncos were a big loser for us. It was our biggest decision of the day, and then the Chargers were No. 2, and we lost them both,” said Westgate LV SuperBook executive direcetor Jay Kornegay. “We built a nice cushion in the morning games, but then we gave it all back – and then some – in the afternoon. The late games with Denver and San Diego, and then even quite a bit of support for the Chiefs did us in. That’s three out of three in the afternoon.”
In the early games, the popular favorites went 5-3-1 ATS with the sports books getting plenty of relief when two of the favorite morning plays – New Orleans (-11) and Dallas (-5) – won, but failed to cover.
When the Sunday night game came around, there wasn’t that normal out for the books to root for – the underdog side that could get them out of the red on the day.
“Patriots and UNDER was our best scenario,“ said Kornegay, “but it’s not the type of win that could save our day. It wasn‘t too big of a decision for us because many opinions were split on the game.”
In any normal Bill Belichick-Tom Brady year, the public would have been dead on with the Patriots at home. But quite a few people did have their doubts, just like me.
In the end, favorites went 7-4-2 ATS and even though the day was pretty much a wash for most of the books, we can still call the bettors victorious on Sunday thanks mostly to Denver and San Diego
Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas race and sports book director, one of The Linemakers on SportingNews.com , and longtime motorsports columnist and sports analyst at GamingToday. Follow Micah on Twitter @MicahRoberts7 Contact Micah at [email protected].