When the season began, perennial powerhouses, like the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros, and Cubs were not winning. Unless playing each other or having to implement a non-starter into the rotation, these teams are almost always huge favorites.
Many bettors out there took heavy losses out of the gate. These squads are now winning and are all either challenging for or leading their divisions. Please tread lightly as to not fall into the same trap.
Betting baseball is always about value. As a rule of thumb, I try to never bet a game of -$1.40 or higher. If you drop a play laying a big price, you now must win your next several bets or fall into the dangerous situation of raising the amount you wager.
Baseball is a long season. Be disciplined, play smart, and always look for value.
Wednesday
Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers: The Nationals were touted to not just vie for the division title, but also for the pennant. With nearly a quarter of the regular season in the books, sitting in fourth place in the NL East at 14-19 is evidence that the Nats are a clear disappointment.
The offense has been erratic and is accounting for mediocre statistics. But it is the pitching that has been absolutely horrendous, ranking 25th with a team ERA of 4.93. Just over the last 10 games, opponents have averaged 5.40 RPG. By the way, their record in that span is 3-7.
Jeremy Hellickson gets the start here. The right-hander, despite three straight no decisions and a whopping ERA of 5.33, has a 2-0 record.
Milwaukee began the season 7-1, then cooled a bit. They are now starting to stride, winning three in a row and seven of their last 10, sitting 1.5 GB in the Central at 20-16. Brandon Woodruff takes the mound at home. The righty is 4-1 with a 4.71 mark, fanning 45 batters in 36.1 IP.
The Nationals defense has also contributed to their record, committing a laughable 23 errors. They have had trouble with the NL Central this season at 2-5 and over the last 10 matchups with the Brewers, they are just 3-7. Milwaukee is 6-1 the last seven vs. the NL East and 5-2 the last seven games at home. BREWERS
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs: At 9-24, the Marlins are fulfilling all prophecies. Owning the 30th ranked offense (2.76 RPG) and the 22nd ranked pitching staff (4.76 Team ERA) and being outscored by 2.22 RPG, has resulted in one of the most reliable teams to bet against in baseball.
Although they are usually a huge underdog, the team is -10.28 units SU and -13.92 units on the run line. They send Jose Urena to the hill. The right-hander is 1-5 with an ERA of 5.45 on the campaign.
He faces a red-hot Cubs team riding a seven-game win streak and a lineup which has posted 7.85 runs per game during the span. Chicago has taken over the top spot in the division and are looking to pad their record.
The Cubs have dominated the Marlins, taking all three meetings in 2019, six straight going back to 2018, and 13 of the last 16 at Wrigley Field. Kyle Hendricks gets the nod here. The right-hander is just 2-4 on the season although sporting an ERA of 3.93. The Dartmouth grad has been with the Cubs his entire six-year career, never experiencing a losing campaign.
This season, Miami is 0-6 vs. NL Central foes and account for a mere, 2.17 RPG on the road. Chicago owns a 10-4 home run line record and is outscoring visitors by 2.07 RPG in 2019. This is an instance where you won’t mind laying a run and a half. CUBS RUN LINE
Last week: 0-2
Season: 7-6
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