Try to find value in the Point Spread

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The concept of point spread value is important in every sport, including college football.

With that in mind, I want to focus on last week’s Syracuse-Maryland game and how that result has dramatically impacted the point spread for both teams this week.

Syracuse entered the season as an upper echelon ACC team while there were plenty of questions surrounding Maryland in the Big Ten. Last week’s result was surprising to say the least at least to this bettor as Maryland thoroughly dominated Syracuse rolling to an easy 63-20 win.

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Maryland was a short home favorite of -1.5 to -2 against Syracuse last week. This week, Maryland is currently laying more than a TD on the road against Temple in a game where the Terrapins would likely have been no more than a FG favorite in that game prior to last week’s result.

Over the summer, the College Football Game Of The Year line for this Saturday’s Clemson-Syracuse game was Clemson -21.5. After Syracuse’s dud of a performance last week, Clemson is now laying nearly 4 TD’s with the Tigers currently listed at -27.5.

So based on the result of one football game, the line has gone up several points toward Maryland and against Syracuse

Purely from a value perspective, there appears to be point spread value on both Temple and Syracuse in those two games with Maryland being overvalued and Syracuse being undervalued after the events of last weekend. That doesn’t mean either will get the money this week but in theory, there is value in the number on both teams this Saturday.

The impact of one game on point spreads the following week in certain situations is a concept that all bettors should be aware of.

Friday

North Carolina at Wake Forest, Total 66.5: I think the scoreboard will be lit up here in Winston-Salem. Wake Forest has an electrifying offense led by QB Jamie Newman that has scored 79 points in their first two games combined against Utah State and Rice.

North Carolina’s offense has been solid in their new uptempo scheme under OC Phil Longo and freshman QB Sam Howell who led the Tar Heels to victory and performed well against two superior defenses in South Carolina and Miami than the weaker and much more suspect Wake defense that he’ll be facing here. OVER

Saturday

Colorado State at Arkansas -9.5: Arkansas played poorly in a 31-17 loss at Ole Miss last week while Colorado State is 1-1 after a loss to Colorado and a win against Western Illinois. Arkansas is making a QB change this week as Texas A&M transfer Nick Starkel will take over and I view that move as an upgrade from SMU transfer Ben Hicks who struggled at times with the Mustangs and hasn’t been good in his first couple starts with the Razorbacks.

Colorado State’s offense is solid but their defense is still a massive problem and it’s an area that I believe Arkansas exploits in a good bounce back spot for the superior home team. ARKANSAS

Arizona State at Michigan State -13: I don’t like this spot or matchup for the road underdog. The Sun Devils have a new freshman QB in Jayden Daniels and he struggled in a very pedestrian 19-7 home win against FCS Sacramento State last week. Arizona State’s offense now must go on the road to East Lansing to face one of the best defenses in the country.

Oh and Michigan State is also in revenge mode for losing to Arizona State last season in Tempe. I think Sparty dishes out some payback here and the new look Michigan State offense got on track last week in a convincing 51-17 win against Western Michigan. 

The Spartans beat their first two opponents by a combined score of 79-24. I’ll lay the points here. MICHIGAN STATE

Last week: 1-2

Season: 4-5

 

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