Twins vs. Guardians Predictions, Odds, Props: Back Home Underdog in AL Central Showdown

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The season’s first series between these two AL Central foes begins Friday night, as the Minnesota Twins take on the Cleveland Guardians in this week’s Apple TV+ Friday night MLB game. With the Twins in first place, this series holds a lot of importance for both sides, and we are here to break it all down with a full Twins vs. Guardians predictions, odds, and props betting preview.

Cleveland has gotten off to a rough start, as it is 14-17 on the season, and the offense has been downright terrible. Meanwhile, the Twins have not been much better, as the pitching is still not producing at a high level, but they are 18-14 and 3.5 games up on the Guardians.

Also: MLB MVP odds | Odds to win World Series | MLB props and HR hitter bets

Twins vs. Guardians Betting Odds: Run Line, Moneyline, Total

Before placing your Twins vs. Guardians bets for tonight, check out the odds and lines from some of the top US sports betting apps. Doing this will help you get the best number for your bet.

Here are the Twins vs. Guardians odds from some of our favorite mobile sportsbooks.

Twins vs. Guardians Betting Trends & Notes

The Twins are 18-14 on the season, covering the run line at the same clip. Meanwhile, Cleveland finds ways to win games based on its pitching, and clutch hitting, specifically at the top of the lineup. However, the Guardians are 12-19 against the run line, including only 4-8 at home. Not only are they not covering run lines at home, but they are also 4-8 SU at Progressive Field, which is not sustainable for a team looking to repeat as division champs.

Cleveland usually starts the season cold and then heats up as we get warmer weather, but right now, the Guardians are so flat on offense that even a dynamite pitching staff (which is banged up and has three rookies in the rotation) cannot save you from.

As an offense, Cleveland ranks 27th in runs (116), 26th in AVG (.228), 23rd in OBP (.307), and last in HR (17), SLG (.338), wOBA (.286), Barrel% (4.1%), and Hard% (33.3%). While players like Josh Naylor, Josh Bell, and Steven Kwan are all starting to hit the ball, the Guardians need to generate more run-scoring opportunities, which has hurt them all season.

Meanwhile, the Twins’ offensive production has dipped since the trade of Luis Arraez, but Minnestoa is at least hitting for power, as they rank 12th in runs (147), eighth in HR (42), and seventh in Hard% (41.7%).

MLB odds: Runlines, moneylines, totals 

Minnesota Twins Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in six of Minnesota’s last nine games
  • Minnesota is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games against Cleveland
  • Minnesota is 1-6 SU in its last seven games in Cleveland
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Minnesota’s last six road games

Cleveland Guardians Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of Cleveland’s last nine games
  • Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last five games
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Cleveland’s last six games against Minnesota
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Cleveland’s last seven home games

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Starting Pitchers

Minnesota Twins: Bailey Ober

2023 Stats: 2 G, 11.1 IP, 1.59 ERA 10 K, 0.4 fWAR

After a brutal 2022 campaign, Ober has put together two solid starts. He has gone 5.2 IP in both appearances and has given up just one earned run in both starts. While his xERA of 3.50 and xFIP of 5.33 point towards some significant regression, Cleveland’s lineup is not scary at all once you get by Jose Ramirez.

While his elevated BB% is also concerning, as Cleveland ranks in the top 10 in walk rate, Ober has cut down on his z-contact rate. With Cleveland’s struggles putting together solid contact, Ober can thrive against this lineup.

Cleveland Guardians: Peyton Battenfield

2023 Stats: 4 G, 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA 14 K, 0.0 fWAR

Battenfield will make his fourth start of the season, and he is the third rookie in the Guardians rotation, and he has seemingly taken over a starting role for now, with Zach Plesac being sent down to AAA-Columbus.

On the season, Battenfield has struggled against bad offenses, but his xERA being almost three runs higher than his actual ERA of 4.67 is very concerning, especially since Minnesota has a powerful lineup, and Battenfield’s HR/9 sits at 1.59, and he is drawing a lot of contact inside the zone.

The Twins have the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball, but it is projected to be warmer in Cleveland tonight. With the Twins’ pop, Battenfield could be in for a short night before the Guardians turn to its dynamite bullpen, which enters tonight with a 3.35 ERA.

Twins vs. Guardians Prop Bet

Steven Kwan To Record 2+ Hits (+170, FanDuel)

One of the most underrated players in baseball, Kwan is starting to hit the ball like he did last season, and although this doesn’t help our Twins vs. Guardians prop bet, he has continued to be one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Our Twins-Indians prediction says back Steven Kwan and Cleveland at the betting window.
Steven Kwan and the Guardians are underdogs at home against the Twins, per Friday’s MLB betting odds (AP Photo/Nick Cammett)

After starting the season slowly, Kwan has picked up his production. Over his last 10 games, Kwan has a slash of .326/.383/.372 with an OPS of .755. In that same period, Kwan also carries a 117 wRC+ and a BABIP of .368, indicating that when he makes contact, which is often as he has a contact% of 95.2% over his last 10 games, he is getting a lot of base hits.

Going against a pitcher like Ober, who is due for some regression, Kwan should continue to put good swings on the ball and pile up the base hits against a weak Twins’ pitching staff. Our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook have Kwan’s 2+ hit prop at a really valuable price tonight, making it well worth a play.

Twins vs. Guardians Prediction

Cleveland has been hitting the ball much better lately, but they still rank 24th in runs scored over the last week of action, and they only have four home runs in that time. They still are the only team that has yet to reach 20+ home runs on the season, and although that is not the identity of this lineup, they need to find some power if they want to repeat as AL Central champions.

Minnesota is 12th in runs scored over the last week, but they only have a team BA of .203 and wOBA of .315 in that period. Although the Twins’ lineup is deeper, if they are not hitting for XBHs, the offense tends to struggle to put up runs.

The pitching advantage goes to Minnesota in this game, but only slightly, as Battenfield has not been great for Cleveland. Still, if he can keep this game close when the Guardians make the call to the bullpen, Cleveland will have a significant advantage as the bullpen is one of the deepest in MLB, despite struggles from top-end arms such as James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase.

Cleveland is playing as the underdog tonight, and this is an excellent spot to take advantage of the value and back the Guardians at home.

Pick:  Guardians ML (+108, FanDuel Sportsbook)

How To Watch Twins vs. Guardians

Date: Friday, May 5, 2023

First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

Location: Progressive Field— Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch: Apple TV+

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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