The nightcap of tonight’s MLB slate features the Minnesota Twins taking on the Seattle Mariners for MLB on FS1 action. Both teams enter tonight’s game around .500 and are fighting for a playoff spot, which should make for an exciting game.
Minnesota has opened the second half of the season with a three-game sweep of the Oakland A’s and is now 2.5 games up on the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central. Meanwhile, the Mariners have more work to do, as they are eight games back of the Texas Rangers in the AL West and five games back of a Wild Card spot.
If you need help picking a side for this game, we have got you covered as we will break down the action with a Twins vs. Mariners predictions, odds, and props preview.
Twins vs. Mariners Betting Odds: Run Line, Moneyline, Total
Before placing your Twins vs. Mariners bet, check out the odds and lines from the top US sports betting apps. This will ensure you get the best numbers for your wager, and with each sportsbook having its own bonus offers, you can really rake in the bonus bets for tonight’s action.
Here are the Twins vs. Mariners odds from some of our favorite mobile sportsbooks.
Twins vs. Mariners Betting Trends
Twins Betting Trends
- The total has gone OVER in four of Minnesota’s last five games
- Minnesota is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
- The total has gone UNDER in four of Minnesota’s last six games in Seattle
- Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last five games against Seattle
Mariners Betting Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in four of Seattle’s last five games
- The total has gone UNDER in six of Seattle’s last seven games against Minnesota
- Seattle is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
- The total has gone OVER in six of Seattle’s last nine home games
The Seattle Mariners have struggled lately, losing two of three against the Tigers in their last series and scoring only six runs through their last three games. The offense also ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs (410), home runs (104), wRC+ (99), and fWAR (10.7).
While they have some exciting names in their lineup, there has not been a constant bat, including Julio Rodriguez. Entering tonight, Rodriguez is slashing .250/.312/.407, and he is not hitting the ball as hard, as his Barrel rate is down almost 4%, and his ISO is down to .157.
Seattle did finish the end of the first half playing good baseball, winning seven of their last nine heading into the All-Star break. Still, a brutal series against the Tigers have wiped out any momentum, and they are entering a tough matchup against a great Twins’ pitching staff.
Minnesota will send out Sonny Gray to get the start tonight, and while he is due for some regression, he has been very good this entire season. He enters with a 2.89 ERA and 2.85 FIP, and he has done an excellent job at limiting hard contact, as he ranks in the 29th percentile in HardHit% and 38th percentile in average exit velocity.
SONNY GRAY SITS DOWN RONALD ACUÑA JR pic.twitter.com/7SC4ceytCY
— Jack (@PrimeLewis23) July 12, 2023
In his last five starts, Gray has a 4.13 ERA and 15 earned runs in 32.2 IP, but he has only allowed two home runs and struck out 30 batters. Going up against a Seattle lineup that does not hit the ball well and has the second-highest K% in baseball (just behind the Twins) should give Gray an advantage.
On the other side, Seattle will send out Logan Gilbert, who is giving up more hard contact and barrels than ever, but his strikeout rate is also up, and he is going up against a Twins’ lineup that has also struggled this year. They have the highest strikeout rate in baseball, and Minnesota ranks 21st in runs scored.
MLB odds: Runlines, moneylines, totals
Twins vs. Mariners Prop Bet
Byron Buxton 2+ Total Bases (+140, FanDuel)
It has been a tough season offensively for Minnesota, and that is especially true for Byron Buxton. He enters tonight batting only .199, and over his last 11 games, he slashes .150/.213/.225 with a .438 OPS. He also has yet to record 2+ total bases since July 4.
However, he has been better against right-handed pitching this season, as he has 12 home runs and 21 extra-base hits. Buxton also has a .756 OPS compared to .571 against lefties and a 109 wRC+.
Despite his struggles, he still hits the ball hard as he ranks in the 87th percentile in Barrel%, and Buxton ranks in the league’s top half in average exit velocity, HardHit%, and xSLG. Going up against a guy who has given up a lot of hard contact this season and a bullpen that has struggled giving up hard contact as of late, tonight is a good night to back Buxton to have a big night at the plate.
Twins vs. Mariners Prediction
Both starting pitchers have a favorable matchup tonight against two struggling offenses that strike out a lot. While Minnesota has hit the ball well as of late, most of their damage has come from a weak Oakland team, and guys like Buxton, Carlos Correra, and Max Kepler still have not been that great this season, which has been a massive blow to this team.
Still, they are in first place in the AL Central, and a big part of that comes from the pitching, including Gray, and a strong bullpen. Minnesota’s bullpen ranks sixth in ERA and eighth in FIP.
We will ride with Minnesota getting plus-value on the moneyline as a road dog tonight. Not only have they played well in Seattle as of late, but they have the starting pitching advantage, and the lineup has more power behind it. With FanDuel giving us a +120 ML price, backing the Twins is the right move for tonight.
Twins vs. Mariners Pick: Twins ML +120 via FanDuel Sportsbook
How To Watch Twins vs. Mariners
Date: Monday, July 17, 2023
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Location: T-Mobile Park — Seattle, WA
Where to Watch: FS1