UEFA Champions League Odds, Picks, Watchability Rankings: Group Stage, Matchday 4

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The intrigue around Matchday 4 of Champions League group play starts at the same place it did on Matchday 3: Group C, where Barcelona hosts Inter Milan in a pivotal matchup. Barca is -235 to avenge last week’s 1-0 loss on the road at Inter Milan (+600), per betting odds available Tuesday morning.

A loss by the La Liga side would put them in massive danger of failing to make it out of their Champions League group for the second year in a row.

The rest of this week’s slate also looks familiar to anyone who watched Matchday 3 last week – the same teams meet again this week, but the teams that were on the road are at home this time.

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Before delving into the Champions League Matchday 4 watchability rankings and picks, a few highlights from last week’s suggestions:

  • Under 3.5 Total Goals (-155) and Under 2.5 Total Goals (+160) both cashed in Benfica-PSG, as those teams played to a 1-1 draw.
  • Napoli (+200) not only won, but dominated, beating Ajax 6-1.
  • Club Brugge now leads Group B with nine points from three matches. Following another upset win on Matchday 3, this one over Atletico Madrid, they’re now -2500 to advance from B and -250 to win the group. So anyone who took the advice last week to consider them at -150 to advance and/or +225 to win the group is feeling great about that.

Notes:

  • All kickoff times listed are US Eastern, and the home team is listed first.
  • All matches are available to watch in the US on Paramount+.
  • The moneyline odds listed for each game are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

TIER 1 – MUST-SEE

1. Barcelona (-235 odds) vs. Inter Milan (+600 odds) Wednesday, 3 p.m.

Can Barcelona finally get on track in the Champions League?

No matter how well Barcelona is playing domestically – and they are tied for first in La Liga with Real Madrid heading into El Clasico on Sunday – failure to reach Champions League knockout play would be humiliating. That’s going to be a distinct possibility if Barcelona gets anything other than a win at home, as they have just three points, while Inter have six points and Bayern have nine.

Pick consideration: Barcelona’s Champions League form, plus the fact they have their biggest game in La Liga in years this weekend, makes this a tough one to predict. Barcelona has played six games in a row (in both UCL and La Liga) where the ‘No’ in the ‘Both Teams To Score’ prop would have cashed, so that’s the play here: Both Teams To Score – No (+110).

2. AC Milan (+230 odds) vs. Chelsea (+125 odds) Tuesday, 3 p.m.

Are Chelsea, and Christian Pulisic, finding their footing under Graham Potter?

Chelsea has won its first three matches under Manager Graham Potter. Last week’s wins over AC Milan and Wolves showed that the change from Thomas Tuchel to Potter might have been exactly what this squad needed. USMNT fans had to love the all-too-rare sight of Pulisic not only starting against Wolves, but scoring.

champions league odds, milan vs chelsea Christian Pulisic
Christian Pulisic and Chelsea are a live plus-money play against AC Milan on Champions League betting action (AP Photo/Ian Walton)

Pick consideration: Taking Chelsea at +125 a week after they beat the same opponent 3-0 feels awfully tempting.

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3. Paris St. Germain (-225 odds) vs. Benfica (+550 odds) Tuesday, 3 p.m.

Can PSG avenge last week’s draw despite Lionel Messi’s absence?

Few could have predicted Benfica earning a draw in last week’s match, and they’re a massive underdog in this week’s rematch.

Pick consideration: It’s hard to see PSG losing at home, but without Messi – out with a calf injury – Benfica Draw No Bet (+425) offers solid value.

4. Borussia Dortmund (-235 odds) vs. Sevilla (+600 odds) Tuesday, 3 p.m.

Can new Manager Jorge Sampaoli transform Sevilla?

On the surface, Sampaoli’s La Liga re-debut (this is not his first stint with the club) wasn’t terribly impressive. But drawing Athletic Club, especially given Sevilla’s recent form, was a good start.

Pick consideration: Does that mean Sevilla should be expected to cause problems for a team that it lost to 4-1 at home last week, in Julen Lopetegui’s final match? Not quite, but Draw (+400) feels like a legitimate possibility.

TIER 2 — WORTH A LOOK (AND A SHORTER BREAKDOWN)

5. Tottenham (-195 odds) vs. Eintracht Frankfurt (+500 odds) Wednesday, 3 p.m.

Tottenham traveled to Frankfurt as a slight favorite last week and settled for a 0-0 draw against the Bundesliga side. The winner of this match will have a massive leg up in the fight to advance from Group D, as both teams have four points and trail Group D leader Sporting Lisbon.

6. Napoli (-175 odds) vs. Ajax (+400 odds) Wednesday, 12:45 p.m.

Napoli has been on a tear in both Serie A and the Champions League. It will be interesting to see how they follow that dominant 6-1 win in Amsterdam last week.

7. Sporting Lisbon (+130 odds) vs. Marseille (+205 odds) Wednesday, 3 p.m.

Marseille delivered an under-the-radar upset by beating Sporting 4-1 last week. The Ligue 1 side remains at the bottom of Group D, but would be in the mix to advance with another win or draw on Wednesday.

8. Bayer Leverkusen (+115 odds) vs. Porto (+225 odds) Wednesday, 3 p.m.

While Club Brugge is running away with Group B, Bayer, Porto, and Atletico Madrid all have three points. That means second place in the group is totally up in the air, which is why this match-up is in Tier 2.

9. Atletico Madrid (-245 odds) vs. Club Brugge (+650 odds) Wednesday, 12:45 p.m.

Tune in to see whether Atleti can avenge last week’s stunning 2-0 loss. Diego Simeone’s team seemingly enters Matchday 6 of group play with work to do, then finds a way to advance, every season. Will this year be any different?

TIER 3 – WHAT ELSE ARE YOU DOING WITH YOUR AFTERNOON?

10. Rangers (+700) vs. Liverpool (-275) Wednesday, 3 p.m.

Liverpool is coming off its latest disappointing domestic result (a 3-2 loss to Arsenal over the weekend), but should have no problem with Rangers.

11. Maccabi Haifa (+360 odds) vs. Juventus (-130 odds) Tuesday, 12:45 p.m.

Juventus had no trouble with Maccabi Haifa last week, winning 3-1. But Juve still doesn’t feel like a total lock in this one due to their inconsistency this season.

TIER 4 — BACKGROUND SOCCER (IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER)

12. Celtic (+230 odds) vs. RB Leipzig (+105 odds) Tuesday, 3 p.m.

13. Viktoria Plzen (+1600 odds) vs. Bayern Munich (-650 odds) Wednesday, 3 p.m.

14. Dinamo Zagreb (+175 odds) vs. RB Salzburg (+160 odds) Tuesday, 3 p.m.

15. FC Copenhagen (+2000 odds) vs. Manchester City (-900 odds) Tuesday, 12:45 p.m.

16. Shakhtar Donetsk (+650 odds) vs. Real Madrid (-235 odds) Tuesday, 3 p.m.

Also check: Odds to win World Cup 2022

About the Author
Tyler Everett

Tyler Everett

Tyler Everett has been a sportswriter since joining the student newspaper at his alma mater, NC State, back in 2008. He's covered sports and sports business for a number of newspapers and websites, including the Denver Broncos, Charlotte Observer, High Press Soccer and Sports Business Journal, where he currently works full-time.

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